Captain’s Log — March 12, 2026

Conditions

Southeast winds 10-15 knots this morning, laying down to southwest 5-10 by afternoon. Seas 1-2 feet in Hawk Channel, 2-3 offshore. Cold front pushing through tonight — winds shift northwest after midnight. Today’s the window before things get bumpy Friday.

Moon phase: waning 38%, next full moon April 2.

What We’re Seeing

The Gulf Stream is pushed tight to the reef line — 8 nautical miles southeast of Alligator Reef Light per NOAA. That’s close. Clean blue water is butting right up against the green stuff along the entire Upper Keys reef tract.

Water temps on the reef are running 76-78°F, jumping to 79-80°F at the stream edge. That 2-3 degree temperature break in a tight band is exactly what concentrates bait. Satellite chlorophyll imagery from last night shows a sharp color change right at the reef edge — green water (bait) stacked against clean blue Gulf Stream water. Ballyhoo are piled up on that line.

Reef-by-Reef Breakdown

🪸 Molasses Reef — Northernmost spot in our range. Stream edge pushes out a bit here (~5-6 NM from the reef). Water 76-77°F on the reef. Good vis with the light winds. Color change is present but not as tight as further south.

🪸 Conch Reef — Stream pulling tighter. Water 76-77°F. Chlorophyll shows bait concentrating along the reef edge. Solid option if you’re running out of Key Largo.

🪸 Davis Reef — Transition zone where the stream starts locking in close. 77°F on the reef, warming fast as you push offshore. Color change sharpening up here.

🪸 Crocker Reef — Right in the sweet spot between Davis and Alligator. The temp break and bait line are stacking tight through this stretch. 77-78°F. Stream edge is close — good place to set up and work south.

🪸 Alligator Reef — Prime zone today. Stream edge sitting 8 NM SE per the latest NOAA data. This is where the temperature break, chlorophyll line, and current edge all stack on top of each other. 77-78°F on the reef, 79-80°F at the stream. If you’re picking one spot, this is it.

🪸 Tennessee Reef — Similar setup to Alligator with the stream riding tight. Good bait concentration showing on satellite. 77-78°F. Bonus: this will be the calmest spot this afternoon as winds shift southwest — natural wind shadow.

The Bite

This is a sailfish day. We’re running kites off the reef edge in 100-300 feet of water, working the Alligator to Tennessee corridor. Live goggle eyes and ballyhoo under the kites. The stream is delivering bait right to the reef and the sails are going to be corralling it along that color change.

Kingfish are eating along the break in 80-150 feet — look for them anywhere from Davis south to Tennessee. High-speed wahoo trolling at first light before switching to kites. Blackfin tuna are working the current edges in deeper water.

Bottom Line

Stream tight at 8 miles. Bait stacked on every reef from Molasses to Tennessee. Sharp color change. Light winds going lighter this afternoon. Front comes tonight, so this is your shot. Alligator and Tennessee are the money spots, but the whole reef line is fishing.

Ready to get dirty? Book your trip with DirtyBoat Charters and let’s go bend some rods.