Captain's Log — March 31, 2026

Tuesday and this east wind is officially overstaying its welcome. Day four (five? who’s counting?) of the Small Craft Advisory in Hawk Channel and the Straits. If you’re waiting for calm seas this week, bring a book — it ain’t happening before Saturday at the earliest.

Conditions

Wind: East near 20 knots today, bumping to 20-25 tonight before easing back to 15-20 Wednesday. The pattern holds through Friday — east, east, more east. Strong high pressure parked over the central North Atlantic is the culprit and it’s in no rush to leave.

Hawk Channel (Ocean Reef to Halfmoon Shoal): 3-4 feet, occasionally 5. Nearshore waters rough. This is your playground if you’re going out — stay inside the reef line and you’ll live.

Straits of Florida: 5-8 feet, occasionally 10. Wave detail: East 7 feet at 7 seconds. That’s a short, steep, miserable chop. Unless you’re running a 40+ footer or have a serious death wish, stay out.

Florida Bay: East near 20, rough. SCA in effect. The backcountry is blown out and muddy. Not worth it today.

Showers: Slight chance. Nothing organized. More of a salt-spray-and-pray situation.

Gulf Stream Position

The Stream’s shoreward edge sits 15 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light — that’s practically in our backyard for Islamorada. Up at Key Largo it’s only 7 NM off Molasses Reef. Current break is tight to the reef up north and pushes out as you go west toward Marathon (20 NM off Sombrero Key).

Good news for when the wind lays down: that close Stream means blue water, warm eddies, and the potential for sailfish and mahi to push right up on the reef edge.

Tides — Islamorada (Vaca Key Reference)

Tide	Time (EDT)	Height
High	2:00 AM	0.59 ft
Low	5:58 AM	0.13 ft
High	2:35 PM	0.51 ft
Low	6:20 PM	0.05 ft

Minimal tidal range today — typical Keys micro-tides. The afternoon incoming should move some bait around the patches.

Water Temps — Reef by Reef

Satellite SST (NOAA MUR, March 29) shows the Upper Keys reef line running warm for late March. The Vaca Key coastal station is reading 78.6-79.0°F this morning.

• Molasses Reef: 79.3°F — warmest of the bunch, Gulf Stream influence strong this close
• Conch Reef: 79.1°F — similar story, tight to the current break
• Davis Reef: 79.0°F — right in the sweet zone
• Crocker Reef: 78.8°F — transitioning toward the cooler mid-Keys
• Alligator Reef: 78.7°F — our front door, holding solid
• Tennessee Reef: 78.6°F — slight dip but nothing dramatic

That’s 2+ degrees warmer than this time last week. The warming trend is real and it’s waking things up.

Species Outlook

Sailfish: With the Stream parked 15 NM off Alligator, any break in this wind opens the door for a legit sail bite on the edge. The warm water temps and proximity of the current break are textbook late-March setup. Need seas under 4 to make the run worth it — maybe Wednesday afternoon.

Yellowtail Snapper: Your best bet today. The reef patches between Alligator and Tennessee are holding good numbers of yellowtail in 20-40 feet. Chum heavy, fish light tackle, and you’ll put meat in the box even in this slop. The incoming tide this afternoon (2:35 PM high) should fire them up.

Mutton Snapper: Full moon was March 29, so we’re in the post-moon mutton window. Look for them staging on the deeper patch reefs (50-70 feet) off Alligator. Live pinfish or a well-placed jig on the bottom. They’ve been eating.

Cero Mackerel: Running the reef edge from Davis to Tennessee. Fun on light spin tackle and they’re thick right now. Throw a small white jig or live pilchard along the reef crest in 15-25 feet.

Mahi-Mahi: When the seas cooperate, the weed lines inside the Stream should be stacked. With water this warm this early, the spring mahi push is coming. Keep an eye on the forecast for Thursday-Friday — first window to run offshore may produce.

Barracuda: They’re everywhere on the reef. Not exactly target species but they’ll bend a rod while you’re waiting for the yellowtail to start biting.

Captain’s Call

If you’re going out today: Stay inside the reef. Yellowtail fishing on the patches between Alligator and Tennessee. Anchor up, chum up, hat on tight because it’s gonna blow. Leave early, be back by 2 PM before the afternoon wind ramp.

If you’re smart: Wait for Wednesday. The forecast shows a slight letup to 15-20 with seas potentially dropping to 2-4. Still not glass, but a lot more manageable for reef fishing and maybe — maybe — a shot at the edge.

Looking ahead: Saturday is circled on the calendar. NE to E at 15-20 dropping to 15 with seas subsiding. Best window of the week for offshore.

Stay salty, Islamorada. The fish are here — we just need Mother Nature to give us a break.

— Captain Kit Carson, DirtyBoat Charters

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Midday Update — 11:30 AM EDT

Fresh NOAA Coastal Waters Forecast dropped at 10:28 AM — here’s what’s changed (and what hasn’t).

Wind: The afternoon is showing a slight easing tendency. NOAA now calls for east near 20 decreasing to 15-20 this afternoon — that “decreasing” language wasn’t in the overnight package. Don’t get too excited; tonight cranks right back to 20-25 before settling again. But if you’re looking for a window, the next 3-4 hours are as good as it gets today.

Hawk Channel: Still 3-4 feet, occasionally 5 — no change in sea heights. But NOAA upgraded the trend from “rough” to “rough, becoming choppy” this afternoon. Translation: it’s marginally improving as the day goes on. The reef line remains fishable for experienced captains.

Straits of Florida: East 20-25, seas 5-8 feet, occasionally 10. Wave detail unchanged: east 7 feet at 7 seconds — short, steep, and ugly. The Straits are a hard no until at least Wednesday when seas drop to 4-7.

Florida Bay: Same story — east near 20, rough becoming choppy. SCA holding. Backcountry remains blown out.

Gulf Stream: Position unchanged from this morning. Still parked 15 NM off Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM off Molasses. That tight Stream means the blue water is right there when the weather cooperates.

What Changed Since This Morning: Honestly? Not much. The slight afternoon easing is the only new wrinkle. The multi-day pattern remains locked in — east wind factory running 24/7 through Friday. Wednesday still looks like the best inshore window. Saturday remains the first realistic offshore shot.

Bottom Line: The afternoon lull is your friend. If you’re reef fishing inside Hawk Channel, the next few hours should see conditions ease from rough to merely choppy. Yellowtail should be biting on the patches between Alligator and Tennessee as the 2:35 PM high tide pushes water and bait around. Get out there now or wait for Wednesday.

Updated 11:30 AM EDT — NOAA CWF KEY 10:28 AM

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Evening Update — 5:00 PM EDT

Wind held east all afternoon and actually picked up a notch into sunset. Here’s the evening wrap and your Wednesday preview.

Afternoon Recap

Long Key Buoy (LONF1) at 4:40 PM EDT:

• Wind: East 19 knots, gusting 23
• Air Temp: 76.3°F
• Pressure: 30.11 in (slowly falling — down from 30.20 this morning)
• Dew Point: 67.5°F

Wind built from 16-17 kts this morning to a steady 18-19 kts by mid-afternoon with gusts touching 23. That promised “afternoon easing”? It showed up for about 45 minutes around 1 PM and then left without saying goodbye. Classic Keys.

Seas: Hawk Channel stayed in the 3-4 foot range, occasionally 5 on the outside edges. Straits remained a washing machine at 5-8 feet. Anyone who fished the reef patches inside had a bumpy but manageable ride.

Tonight’s Forecast

Wind: East 15-20 mph tonight, partly cloudy. Low around 72°F. Slight chance of a passing shower (10%) — nothing to write home about.

Pressure Trend: Barometer dropped nearly a tenth today (30.20 → 30.11). Not alarming, but the gradual fall signals the pattern is slowly loosening its grip. Good sign for the back half of the week.

Wednesday Outlook — Best Day of the Week So Far

Wind: East near 15 mph — that’s a solid 5-knot drop from today’s sustained. This is the window we’ve been talking about.

Seas (expected): Hawk Channel should drop to 2-3 feet, occasionally 4. Still east chop but a world of difference from today. Straits should ease to 4-6 feet — still not offshore-friendly for smaller boats, but improving.

Temps: High near 82°F. Mostly sunny. 10% rain chance during the day, bumping to 20% Wednesday night with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Water Temps: Holding at 78.7-79.3°F across the Islamorada reef line. The warming trend is real — that’s 2+ degrees above the same week last year. Bait is stacked and the fish know it.

Wednesday Game Plan

Reef fishing is the play. With seas dropping to 2-3 inside the reef, Wednesday is the first genuinely comfortable reef day since Friday. The yellowtail patches between Alligator and Tennessee should fire on the tide changes. Post-full-moon muttons are still staging in 50-70 feet off Alligator — live pinfish on the bottom.

Edge shot? Maybe late afternoon. If the morning seas cooperate and you see 3-foot or less at the reef, the run to the Gulf Stream edge (15 NM off Alligator) becomes doable for 30+ foot boats. Sailfish potential is there with the Stream parked this close and water temps pushing 80.

Skip the backcountry one more day. Bay needs the wind to clock more south before it clears up.

Extended Outlook

• Thursday-Friday: Wind holds E 15 but rain chances climb to 30% with thunderstorms possible. Typical pre-frontal moisture creeping in.
• Saturday: Still circled. Wind easing, seas subsiding. First real offshore window of the week.
• Sunday-Monday: Looking cleaner — sunny, slight shower chances, high 78-79. Could be a good run of fishing days.

The east wind marathon is entering the final laps. Wednesday is your green light for inside the reef. Saturday for the blue water. Hang tight.

Updated 5:00 PM EDT — NOAA CWF KEY / NDBC LONF1 observations