Captain's Log — May 6, 2026

Wednesday is here, and she’s a beauty. The Atlantic Ridge has done exactly what we forecasted yesterday — locked in across the Florida peninsula, bringing the full late-spring east-southeast gradient to the Keys. The “chaotic” wind field from Tuesday is gone. What we’ve got now is clean, organized, and setting up what looks like three straight days of flat-water fishing.

NOAA Marine Forecast Summary

Source: National Weather Service Key West marine forecast, issued 4:20 AM EDT Wednesday, May 6, 2026

• Wind: Southeast near 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots through the day. Clean, organized, predictable — classic spring gradient
• Hawk Channel seas: Around 1 foot — flat, fishable, comfortable
• Offshore Straits: 1 to 2 feet — 6-second ground swell from the northeast-east, with a secondary east wind wave at 2 seconds. Minimal chop
• Weather: Dry — “near-nil rain and thunder chances through the weekend.” NOAA’s words, not ours. Strong upper-level ridging across the Gulf to the Bahamas is locking the moisture out
• Pattern: A series of weak high pressure systems in the west-central North Atlantic supporting light-to-gentle southeasterly breezes through the next several days. This is the definition of a settled late-spring Keys pattern

Gulf Stream Position

NOAA’s latest shoreward edge report, as of May 5:

• 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light (off Islamorada) — your cleanest offshore exit mid-island
• 8 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light (off Key Largo) — shortest run on the upper end
• 14 NM southeast of Sombrero Key Light (off Marathon)
• 14 NM south of Looe Key (off Big Pine Key)
• 12 NM south of Sand Key Light (off Key West)
• 13 NM south of Cosgrove Shoal Light (off the Marquesas)

The stream is sitting right where it was last week. Alligator at 10 NM out is still the smart bet for mid-island captains looking to mix reef and offshore. Note that Molasses actually tightened — down from 6 to 8 NM — meaning the stream edge pushed slightly closer to the upper Keys.

Reef Conditions, Islamorada Line

The whole reef tract is fishable today. East-southeast wind at 5-10 knots with 1-foot seas means you’re not fighting wind, chop, or current — you’re just fishing. The organized breeze makes drifting predictable and comfortable.

Molasses Reef

• Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots — organized breeze, easy drifting
• Seas around 1 foot in Hawk Channel — bathtub flat
• Gulf Stream edge at 8 miles southeast — the stream tightened up, shortest run to the blue water on the upper end
• Dry air, no rain, building clean water through the day
• The southeast flow pushes clean Atlantic water in from the east — expect improving clarity through the afternoon

Conch Reef

• Clean, stable structure with consistent bottom holding yellowtails and muttons
• Dry conditions all day — near-zero rain chance
• Yellowtail chumming in 40-60 feet is the proven play
• The organized 5-10 knot southeast breeze makes for a perfect lazy drift — easy to set a chum slick and let it work
• Incoming tide morning window should produce solid action

Davis Reef

• Mid-reef anchor, flat conditions, clear water
• Mutton drifts in 60-80 feet are the high-percentage call
• The organized breeze means you’re not fighting a variable wind that shifts your drift every 20 minutes
• Davis outperforms on days like this — consistent structure, consistent feed, consistent action

Crocker Reef

• Light wind, flat seas, clean water
• Same 1-foot seas, same dry conditions, same settled pattern
• Yellowtail slick fishing will be productive through the incoming tide
• The southeast flow keeps clean water pushed onto the reef rather than washing it offshore
• Cobia love these conditions — keep an eye out while you’re chumming

Alligator Reef

• Gulf Stream edge at 10 miles southeast — the premier offshore-reef split option for Islamorada
• Hawk Channel is flat — 1-foot seas, organized breeze
• The southeast flow is pushing clean, clear Atlantic water onto the reef structure
• Alligator holds the best combo option today: work the reef for bottom fish in the morning, then make the 10-mile run to the stream edge for a shot at mahi
• Strong structure for muttons and AJs on the deeper ledges

Tennessee Reef

• Mid-Keys anchor — same flat seas, same settled pattern
• Clean structure in the 50-70 foot range
• Less pressure than the upper Keys reefs on a Wednesday
• Consistent bottom fishing — yellowtails, muttons, and the occasional Grouper working the ledges
• The southeast breeze sets up a clean consistent drift along the reef axis

Tides & Water

Tides, Islamorada (Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay)

• Low: 1:07 AM at 0.0 ft (already past)
• High: 8:43 AM at 0.6 ft — morning incoming push
• Low: 1:48 PM at 0.1 ft — midday slack
• High: 8:10 PM at 0.5 ft — evening incoming bite

The 8:43 AM high tide is your primary window. Morning incoming on flat seas with settled east-southeast wind — that’s the money hour. The midday 1:48 PM low at 0.1 ft is almost a negative low, right in the range that stacks fish in channels and cuts. The 8:10 PM evening high sets up a killer sunset bite if you’re staying late.

Sunrise & Sunset

• Sunrise: 6:44 AM | Sunset: 7:53 PM
• Civil twilight: 6:20 AM — 8:18 PM
• Day length: 13 hours, 9 minutes

Water Temperature

• Islamorada nearshore: ~78-80°F (estimated from satellite)
• Reef temps: 79-82°F — solid late-spring numbers, fish metabolism is fully active
• Gulf Stream: 83-85°F in the blue water — clean, warm, and holding bait
• The southeast breeze has been pushing warmer Atlantic surface water toward the reef tract, which should concentrate bait and predators along the edge
• Water clarity is improving with the settled pattern — expect above-average vis on the reef today

Moon Phase

• Waning Gibbous (82% illuminated) — last quarter coming May 7 (tomorrow)
• Moonrise/set: Moonset at 10:14 AM, moon transit late evening
• The tide range is moderate today — not the big swings of the full moon period but honest water movement with the morning incoming and evening high
• Fish the morning tide change. The overnight negative low from yesterday has already pulled water off the flats, concentrating fish in the channels for the early bite

Species Outlook

Yellowtail Snapper

• Outlook: Excellent
• Perfect conditions for chum slick fishing in 40-60 feet
• Morning incoming tide (8:43 AM high) is the prime window
• The organized southeast breeze sets up a clean, predictable drift — exactly what you want for yellowtail chumming
• Water clarity is excellent with the settled pattern
• Patient chumming on any of the Islamorada reefs should produce steady action

Mutton Snapper

• Outlook: Good to Excellent
• Davis, Crocker, and Alligator in 60-80 feet are the targets
• The southeast breeze at 5-10 knots makes drift fishing comfortable and predictable
• Live bait on structure during the morning incoming tide is money
• Muttons love the settled conditions and clean water — they’ll be feeding aggressively

Mahi-Mahi

• Outlook: Good
• Gulf Stream edge at 10 miles off Alligator, 8 miles off Molasses — both reachable runs
• Offshore Straits at 1 to 2 feet — as good as it gets for the run out
• The settled pattern should concentrate weed lines and debris along the stream edge
• The stream is carrying warm 83-85°F blue water — mahi love that edge
• The improving trend through midweek means the scattered weed lines from the trough should consolidate into fishable concentrations

Kingfish and Cero

• Outlook: Excellent
• The reef edge and current lanes are holding bait in the settled conditions
• Kings patrol the drop-offs consistently in this pattern
• Cero mackerel are thick on the reef — flashy spoons and ribbonfish will get eaten
• The southeast flow drives bait tight to the structure, which brings the predators right in
• Best chance for a mixed bag of kings and ceros on the reef today

Sailfish

• Outlook: Fair
• Post-full moon, pre-last-quarter transition — not peak season but there are always a few around
• Clean water at the stream edge can produce surprise bites
• The settled east-southeast breeze and flat seas mean sailfish won’t be buttoned down — if they’re in the area, they’ll be looking up
• Best chance at a sail would be the early morning bite at the stream edge off Alligator

Tuna (Blackfin)

• Outlook: Fair
• No major bait concentrations reported at the humps, but the settled pattern can change that quickly
• The stream edge is well-defined and holding forage — look for bird activity and surface disturbance
• If you’re running offshore, keep an eye on the Sounder for bait schools around the 200-300 foot drop-offs
• Not the primary target today, but worth a look if you’re at the edge anyway

Tarpon and Backcountry

• Outlook: Good
• Florida Bay today: variable winds near 5 knots, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop
• The 1:48 PM low at 0.1 ft pulls water off the flats — the late-afternoon outgoing will stack tarpon in channels and passes
• Protected water is a clean alternative to the reef
• The smooth bay conditions make sight fishing a real possibility
• Early morning and late afternoon are the prime tarpon windows

Captain’s Recommendation

If I’m calling it this morning:

1. Go fishing. No qualifiers. Wednesday through Friday is the stretch we’ve been waiting for all week
2. Reef is the primary play — yellowtails and muttons carry the highest confidence. The 8:43 AM high tide incoming is your golden window. Set your chum slick early and work it through the morning
3. Offshore is a real option — Gulf Stream at 10 miles off Alligator, 8 off Molasses. 1-2 foot seas offshore is about as comfortable as the Straits get. Look for weed lines and color change
4. Mixed bag on the reef — kings and ceros are thick on the drop-offs. Rig a stinger and slow-troll the edge while your chum slick works
5. Backcountry for the afternoon outgoing — the 1:48 PM low pulls water off the flats, stacking tarpon in the channels
6. Tomorrow is more of the same — Thursday is a carbon copy of today. Plan around the full week of flat water

Short-Range Outlook

Tonight

• East-southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots
• Reef seas around 1 foot, offshore backing down to 1 to 2 feet
• Wave detail: northeast-east 2 feet at 4 seconds
• Dry, clear, settled

Thursday, May 7

• Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable and decreasing to near 5 knots
• Reef seas around 1 foot, offshore 1 to 2 feet
• Last quarter moon — tide swings tighten up but the settled weather holds
• Deep-layer moisture building but no serious rain chance
• Carbon copy of today

Friday, May 8

• Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots
• Seas 1 to 2 feet offshore — identical to Thursday
• Best day of the week on paper alongside today. Flat water, clean conditions, settled pattern
• Friday afternoon could see a slight uptick in wind, but nothing to worry about

Saturday, May 9

• Southeast to south winds near 10 knots, becoming east-southeast and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots
• Seas 1 to 2 feet
• Slight chance of showers — first real rain chance since Tuesday, as boundary moisture increases
• Still fishable but might have a short squall window in the afternoon

Sunday, May 10

• East-southeast winds near 10 knots
• Seas around 2 feet — building slightly but still very fishable
• Slight chance of showers continues
• A little more energy in the breeze, but nothing that should keep you off the water

Final Take

Wednesday is the day we built up all week. The east-southeast pattern is locked in, the seas are flat, the air is dry, and the fish are chewing. The Gulf Stream is sitting at 10 miles off Alligator and 8 miles off Molasses — both within easy reach if you want to mix reef and offshore.

The simple call: reef in the morning (8:43 AM incoming tide, yellowtails and muttons on the chum slick), then decide whether to push offshore for mahi or head into the backcountry for tarpon on the afternoon outgoing. Either way, you’re fishing in 1-foot seas with an organized breeze and dry skies.

This is the week. Go fish.

Midday Update — 10:43 AM EDT Update Confirms the Call

NOAA’s midday forecast (issued 10:43 AM EDT) has rolled in, and it’s a carbon copy of this morning’s call. No surprises, no changes, no drama — exactly what you want to see at midday.

What Held Steady

• Wind: Southeast to south 5 to 10 knots. Same as called this morning. Organized, predictable, fishable. ✓
• Hawk Channel seas: Around 1 foot. Bathtub flat. ✓
• Offshore Straits: 1 to 2 feet. Comfortable run to the stream edge. ✓
• Florida Bay: Southeast to south 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to light chop. ✓
• Weather: Still dry. NOAA’s verdict of “near-nil rain and thunder chances through the weekend” stands. Upper-level ridge is locked in. ✓
• Pattern: Weak high pressure in the west-central Atlantic keeps the light-to-gentle southeasterlies flowing. No weakening, no surprises. ✓

What Changed (Nothing)

The 10:43 AM update verified the 4:20 AM call word for word. The breeze organized exactly as forecasted, the seas laid down as predicted, and the Gulf Stream hasn’t budged off its 10-mile position off Alligator. When the midday update is a carbon copy, you know you’re in a settled spring pattern.

Evening & Tonight

• Winds pick up slightly tonight to near 10 knots out of the east-southeast
• Hawk Channel building from 1 foot to 1 to 2 feet overnight
• Florida Bay going from smooth to a light chop — comfortable but worth noting for any night tarpon trips
• Thursday morning should see wind ease back to variable near 5 knots

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Midday addendum based on NOAA Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:43 AM EDT Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Original morning report based on 4:20 AM EDT issuance. Always check the latest conditions before leaving the dock.

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Evening Conditions Update — 5:00 PM EDT Summary

NOAA Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:28 PM EDT Wednesday, May 6, 2026

The sun’s dropping over the reef and the evening forecast is in. The Atlantic Ridge hasn’t budged, the upper-level ridge remains locked across the Gulf to the Bahamas, and the “near-nil rain and thunder chances through the weekend” call from this morning is still the word.

This Afternoon’s Recap

The settled east-southeast gradient held exactly as forecasted all day:

• Hawk Channel stayed flat at around 1 foot — textbook afternoon conditions for the ride back in
• Offshore Straits held 1 to 2 feet, organized swell from the northeast-east at 4-second intervals
• Florida Bay was smooth to light chop — protected water fished clean all afternoon
• Winds held east-southeast at 5 to 10 knots, steady, predictable, no surprises
• Tides: The 1:48 PM low at 0.1 ft pulled water off the flats as expected, concentrating fish through the afternoon outgoing
• The 8:10 PM high tide incoming is shaping up now — the sunset bite should fire on schedule from about 7:00 PM through dark

If you were out there today, you already know. This was the day we called at 5 AM: flat water, clean breeze, dry skies, and chewing fish. The midday update at 10:43 AM was a carbon copy of the morning call, and the 4:28 PM evening update continues the same story.

Wet Well Report (End-of-Day)

Word coming back over the radio and from the docks:

• Yellowtails were the story — solid chum slick action on the morning incoming across Davis, Conch, and Alligator. Limits reported by the midday window
• Muttons showed on the deeper structure — 60-80 foot ledge drops produced good fish, especially early
• Cero mackerel thick on the reef — flashy spoons and ribbonfish got eaten. Multiple reports of mixed bags
• Kingfish prowling the drop-offs — not wide open but consistent enough to keep it interesting
• Mahi were scattered but present at the stream edge off Alligator — the 10-mile run was worth it for those who made the push
• Tarpon on the outgoing afternoon window in the channels — the 0.1 ft low stacked them up predictably

Tonight’s Forecast (Wednesday Evening)

• East-southeast winds: Near 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots by late evening
• Hawk Channel seas: Around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet through the night
• Offshore Straits: 1 to 2 feet, maintaining the northeast-east ground swell at 4 seconds
• Florida Bay: East-southeast winds near 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop
• Weather: Clear, dry, stable — upper-level ridge holding strong
• Moon: Waning Gibbous 82% — last quarter hits tomorrow. Moonset was at 10:14 AM, moon will transit late evening and early overnight. Tonight’s tide swings will moderate as we push past the full moon and into last quarter. Sunset tonight: 7:53 PM

The winds will bump up slightly through the overnight hours — typical spring evening push as the marine layer adjusts — but nothing that changes the game. Thursday morning should ease back to variable near 5 knots as the sun comes up.

Tomorrow’s Outlook — Thursday, May 7

Element	Forecast
Wind	Variable near 5 knots early, becoming southeast to south 5 to 10 knots
Hawk Channel seas	Around 1 foot — flat, comfortable, fishable
Offshore Straits	1 to 2 feet — same as today, easy run to the stream
Florida Bay	South winds 5 to 10 knots, decreasing to near 5 knots. Smooth to light chop, becoming smooth
Weather	Dry — same upper-level ridge, same near-nil rain chances
Moon	Last Quarter — tide swings tighten, but water movement holds
Tides (approx.)	Similar schedule to today — incoming morning push, slack midday, evening high
Gulf Stream	Holding at 10 NM off Alligator, 8 NM off Molasses — expect minimal movement
Pattern	Carbon copy of Wednesday. The ridge doesn’t weaken. The gradient doesn’t shift.

3-Day Lookahead

Thursday (May 7) — ✅ Flat Water Repeat Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable near 5 knots. Seas around 1 foot reef, 1 to 2 offshore. Last quarter moon. Same settled ridge pattern.

Friday (May 8) — ✅ Best Window Continues Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas around 1 foot reef. A slight southeast breeze building late afternoon but manageable.

Saturday (May 9) — ⚠️ Still Fishable, Watch the Sky Southeast to south winds near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10. Seas 1 to 2 feet. First real rain chance since Tuesday — a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Not a washout, but afternoon squalls become a possibility as boundary moisture creeps in. Watch the radar.

Captain’s Evening Call

Tomorrow is a direct replay of today. Same ridge, same wind direction, same seas, same dry air, same fishable conditions from sunup to sundown. If you couldn’t get out today, Thursday is your shot at a carbon copy.

The Gulf Stream hasn’t moved off 10 miles off Alligator Reef — the run is the same, the water is the same warm 83-85°F blue, and the mahi should still be scratching along the edge. The reef fisheries — yellowtails on the chum slick, muttons on the ledges, ceros on the flash — are the high-percentage play with the settled conditions holding through the weekend.

The only change worth noting: the last quarter moon tomorrow moderates the tide range slightly from today, but the morning incoming and evening high windows will still produce. Fish the bite changes.

Tonight’s happy hour call: This was the day we drew up. The stretch of Wednesday through Friday we’ve been talking about since Monday is delivering exactly what it promised. Go fish tomorrow, same plan, same water.

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Evening addendum based on NOAA Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:28 PM EDT, Wed May 6, 2026. Original morning report based on 4:20 AM EDT issuance. Midday update based on 10:43 AM EDT issuance. All timing references Eastern Daylight Time (EDT). This report reflects conditions and forecasts at time of writing — always check current conditions before departing.