Captain's Log — May 16, 2026

Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
Water Temp: ~82-84°F nearshore reef
Tide: Low 5:02 AM (0.7 ft) → High 10:25 AM (1.8 ft) → Low 4:42 PM (0.2 ft) → High 10:56 PM (1.9 ft)
Moon: New Moon (0% illumination — maximum tidal amplification)
Sunrise: 6:37 AM | Sunset: 8:01 PM

---

Weather Overview

High pressure is building over the Southeast and taking root across the western North Atlantic this weekend. East winds are freshening today — starting around 10 knots and building to 10-15 knots through the afternoon. Hawk Channel sees seas around 1-2 feet, building to around 2 feet by evening. Offshore in the Straits, expect 2-3 feet, eventually 3-4 feet by tonight.

The big story isn’t the wind — it’s the new moon. Tonight’s new moon amplifies the tidal swing to its maximum for the month. That means bigger water movement, stronger currents through the reef channels, and more bait pushed across the reef structure. Fish feed on moving water, and today has the most of it.

There’s a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms — nothing organized, just isolated afternoon pop-ups. Don’t let a few clouds keep you ashore.

Bottom line: The east breeze makes it a bumpier ride than yesterday’s glassy calm, but the new moon tide more than makes up for it. Get out early before the breeze really cranks.

---

Wind & Sea State

Zone	Wind	Seas
Hawk Channel (Upper Keys)	E 10 kts → E 10-15 kts	1 ft → around 2 ft
Hawk Channel (Mid Keys)	E 10-15 kts	1-2 ft → 2-3 ft
Florida Bay	E/SE 5-10 kts → 10-15 kts	Smooth → light to moderate chop
Bayside/Gulfside	E/SE 5-10 kts → 10-15 kts	1 ft → 1-2 ft
Straits of Florida (Offshore)	E near 10 kts → 15 kts	2-3 ft → 3-4 ft (occasionally 5 ft tonight)

Wave Detail: East 2 feet at 4 seconds — building to east 4 feet at 5 seconds tonight. Short-period wind chop, not groundswell. Comfortable ride in a 24’ boat, bumpy in a 20’.

---

Tides — The New Moon Factor

Time	Height	Direction	Best For
5:02 AM	0.7 ft (Low)	Outgoing slack	Early morning setup
5:02 - 10:25 AM	Rising 0.7 → 1.8 ft	Incoming building	Prime morning bite
10:25 AM	1.8 ft (High)	Peak incoming	Maximum push over reef
10:25 AM - 4:42 PM	Falling 1.8 → 0.2 ft	Outgoing	Strong afternoon outgoing
4:42 PM	0.2 ft (Low)	Slack low water	Transition window
4:42 - 10:56 PM	Rising 0.2 → 1.9 ft	Night incoming	Night bite (lights on)

The new moon creates the month’s widest tide range — from 0.2 ft low to 1.9 ft high. Compare that to neap tides of 0.5-1.2 ft. The volume of water moving through the reef cuts is dramatically higher today.

Your window: The 5:02 AM low through 10:25 AM high incoming is the money tide. The second window is the afternoon outgoing (10:25 AM → 4:42 PM), which pushes bait off the reef and into deeper structure where the predators wait.

---

Reef-by-Reef Breakdown

Molasses Reef (Key Largo)

East wind 10 knots building to 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet on the reef. The Gulf Stream edge is pinned tight at 4 NM southeast (NOAA May 12 positioning). The new moon incoming tide starts at 5:02 AM — be on the water by first light to catch the full flood push.

Morning window (5:02-10:25 AM incoming) is prime. Clean Gulf Stream water pushes over the reef structure as the tide builds. The afternoon outgoing (10:25 AM-4:42 PM) flushes bait off the reef and stacks it along the drop-off edges. Fish both phases.

Target: Yellowtail on the chum slick in 40-60 ft. Muttons on the incoming drift. Kingfish working the reef face. The edge is a 10-minute run for bluewater species.

Conch Reef

East breeze manageable with seas around 1-2 ft. The structure in 60-80 ft is the call. New moon incoming tide pushes significant water volume over the ledge — bait stacks tight and the snapper chew hard. The outgoing phase drops the water aggressively, concentrating predators at the drop.

Target: Muttons on the ledge. Yellowtail and mangroves in the chum line. Cero mackerel slashing bait at the surface.

Davis Reef

East wind 10-15 knots, seas 1-2 ft building to 2 ft. The wreck structure in 60-80 ft is the anchor point. The new moon amplifies the current through the wreck — heavier weight needed to hold bottom. Incoming tide brings clean water; outgoing pushes scent trails into deeper zones.

Target: Mangrove snapper, yellowtail, grouper holding near structure. Kingfish between Davis and Crocker.

Crocker Reef

East wind 10-15 knots, moderate chop building by midday. The reef structure in 50-70 ft is a solid play. The outgoing tide (10:25 AM → 4:42 PM) stacks bait on the seaward edge of the structure. Set up on the down-current side of the ledge and let the tide bring the fish to you.

Target: Mutton snapper, grouper, yellowtail. The outgoing push is your best window here.

Alligator Reef

The wind is building from the east, which puts Alligator in a moderate chop by afternoon. But the new moon tide makes it worth it. The 5:02-10:25 AM incoming is the play — get there early, anchor up, and fish the flood. The Gulf Stream edge sits 6 NM southeast — NOAA’s most recent positioning. Clean bluewater is close enough to taste.

The outgoing tide (10:25 AM onward) pushes bait off the reef and into the deeper channels. Kingfish, cobia, and even tarpon work the edges during the outgoing flush.

Target: Yellowtail on the incoming. Muttons and grouper on the outgoing. Kingfish on the color change at 6 NM.

Tennessee Reef

East breeze exposed — expect a building chop through the morning. But the deeper structure in 30-50 ft holds fish that don’t mind a little surface movement. The new moon outgoing tide pushes water hard off the reef structure.

Target: Grouper holding in the deep ledges. Snapper on the structure. Less boat traffic here — if you want elbow room, Tennessee is the call.

---

Offshore Outlook (Straits)

East winds near 10 knots early, building to near 15 knots, then 15-20 knots by Sunday. Seas 2-3 feet today, building to 3-4 feet occasionally 5 feet by tonight and Sunday.

Gulf Stream position (NOAA May 12):

• 4 NM SE of Molasses Reef Light (Key Largo)
• 3 NM SE of Carysfort Reef Light (Ocean Reef)
• 6 NM SE of Alligator Reef Light (Islamorada)
• 7 NM SE of Sombrero Key Light (Marathon)
• 6 NM S of Sand Key Light (Key West)

The Stream is pinned tight to the upper Keys — 4-6 NM off the reef. One of the closest positions all spring.

Species Outlook

• Mahi-Mahi: Good. The Gulf Stream is close and carrying weed lines. Look for frigate birds working — they’ll lead you to the fish. The new moon outgoing tide pushes bait offshore, and mahi will be waiting at the color change.
• Blackfin Tuna: Good. Early morning bite on the humps. The Islamorada Hump is the play before the wind builds. Flat calm at dawn, bumpy by noon.
• King Mackerel: Very Good. Smokers stacked on the reef edge. The combination of new moon tide movement and close Stream position has kings feeding aggressively. Troll the edge from Molasses to Alligator.
• Sailfish: Fair to Good. Late-season sails still lingering on the Stream edge. The outgoing tide flushing bait off the reef creates a natural feeding lane. Kite baits at the color change.
• Yellowtail Snapper: Excellent. New moon incoming tide + clean water = textbook yellowtail conditions. Anchor in 40-60 ft, chum heavy on the incoming, and load up before the wind builds.
• Mutton Snapper: Good. The new moon outgoing tide triggers mutton feeding activity. Drift the reef edge and drop live baits on structure.

---

Florida Bay & Backcountry

East to southeast winds 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots. Bay waters going from smooth to light chop, becoming moderate chop by afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The new moon tide is amplified here too — bigger water movement on the flats, stronger pushes through the passes. Good conditions for tarpon rolling through the channels on the incoming.

Target species: Redfish and trout on the grass flats. Tarpon in the passes on the incoming tide. Snook around the creek mouths. Bonefish on the sand flats if the wind stays manageable.

---

Looking Ahead

Sunday, May 17

• East winds near 15 knots, increasing to 15-20 knots Sunday night
• Hawk Channel: 2-3 feet → 2-4 ft occasionally 5 ft by night
• Offshore: 3-4 feet occasionally 5 ft → 4-5 ft occasionally 6 ft by evening
• A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
• Verdict: 🟡 Marginal. Fishable early, goes downhill afternoon. Bigger boats only.

Monday, May 18

• East winds 15-20 knots, easing to near 15 knots
• Seas 2-3 ft Hawk Channel, 3-5 ft offshore occasionally 6 ft
• Verdict: 🟡 Choppy. Reef ledge in morning, pick your window.

Tuesday, May 19

• East winds near 15 knots
• Seas 2-3 ft Hawk Channel, 3-5 ft offshore
• Verdict: 🟡 Better. Trend improving. Moderate chop but fishable.

Wednesday, May 20

• East winds 10-15 knots
• Seas 1-3 ft Hawk Channel, 2-4 ft offshore
• Verdict: 🟢 Good. Lighter breeze, improving conditions.

Pattern: The east wind trade regime locks in through early next week. Peak wind Monday, then gradual improvement Tuesday through Wednesday. The new moon tide impact fades after today, but fish will still be in a feeding rhythm from the amplified water movement.

---

The Bottom Line

Rating: 🟢 Good — New moon bonus

Today is a trade-off. The east breeze is building, so it’s not Friday’s glassy flatness. But the new moon tide is the wildcard — the month’s widest tidal swing means the most water movement, the most bait pushed through the reef channels, and the most aggressive feeding.

Your game plan:

1. Launch at first light — the 5:02 AM low-to-high incoming is the best fishing window of the day. Be on the water by 6 AM.
2. Fish the incoming tide on the reef — anchor up in 40-60 ft, start chumming at first light, and fish the flood through 10:25 AM high. This is your yellowtail and mutton window.
3. Switch to the outgoing — the 10:25 AM to 4:42 PM outgoing pushes bait off the reef. Fish the edges, drops, and structure on the seaward side.
4. Run to the color change — Gulf Stream is 4-6 NM off the reef. A 10-15 minute run from the reef line. Mahi, blackfin, and sails on the edge.
5. Watch the wind — east 10-15 knots is fishable. If it bumps toward 15-20 knots by afternoon, pick your reef spot carefully and work the lee side.
6. Tomorrow is rougher — Sunday sees 15-20 knots by afternoon. If you’re choosing between Saturday and Sunday, Saturday wins.

Captain’s call: The new moon doesn’t come every month. Yes, the east breeze is building and tomorrow will be bumpy. But the amplified tide movement today creates feeding conditions that flat-calm neap tides cannot match. The fish will be chewing. Get out early, fish the tide windows, and don’t let a moderate chop talk you out of a good day on the water.

Tight lines, — Captain Kit Carson

Report based on NOAA Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:17 AM EDT Saturday, May 16, 2026. Midday updated issued 10:29 AM EDT Saturday, May 16, 2026. Tide predictions for Islamorada (Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay). Moon phase: New Moon (May 16 UTC). Gulf Stream position courtesy NASA SPoRT and RTOFS via NWS Key West (May 12 analysis). Water temperature estimates from nearshore buoys and NOAA buoy data.

---

🕐 Midday Addendum — 3:30 PM Update

NOAA issued an updated forecast at 10:29 AM. Here’s what’s changed — and what hasn’t — since the morning report.

Wind Check

The morning call for east winds building from 10 to 10-15 knots this afternoon is holding steady. The midday update confirms the same trajectory. No strengthening beyond forecast — what we expected is what we’re getting.

On the water right now: expect east-southeast winds near 10 knots in Hawk Channel with occasional gusts to 15. Florida Bay is running E/SE near 10-15 knots with a light to moderate chop building. Offshore in the Straits, east winds have firmed up around 15 knots — a little stiffer than the morning call, but within tolerance.

Sea State Reality Check

Zone	Morning Forecast	Midday Update	Verdict
Hawk Channel	E 10 kts → 10-15 kts, seas 1-2 ft	Confirmed. Building to 1-2 ft.	✅ On track
Florida Bay	5-10 → 10-15 kts, light chop	Confirmed. Light to moderate chop.	✅ On track
Bayside/Gulfside	5-10 → 10 kts, <1 ft building to 1 ft	Confirmed. 1 ft or less.	✅ On track
Straits Offshore	10 → 15 kts, 2-3 ft → 3-4 ft occasional 5	Confirmed. Slightly on the higher end.	✅ Marginal
West of Marquesas (tonight)	2-3 ft	Now 3-4 ft occasional 5 ft by Sunday night	📈 Building faster

What’s New

• Synopsis confirmed: High pressure is taking root exactly as expected. Easterlies will freshen further Sunday into Monday. Peak winds land Monday, not Sunday.
• Showers/thunderstorms: Still just a “slight chance” this afternoon. No organized system developing. Isolated pop-ups only.
• Sunday outlook: The midday update firms up Sunday — east 15-20 knots by Sunday night with seas 3-4 ft offshore occasionally 5. Morning remains the window; afternoon is bumpy.
• West of the Marquesas: Getting pushed harder by the east wind fetch. Seas building to 3-4 ft occasionally 5 ft Sunday night — bigger than the morning model suggested.

Captain’s Midday Call

No surprises here. The morning forecast was solid. The east breeze is doing exactly what the models said — building gradually, not rapidly. The new moon tide is the dominant factor, and it doesn’t care about 5 extra knots of wind.

If you’re on the water right now: The afternoon outgoing tide (peaking around 4:42 PM low) is flushing bait off the reef. Fish the seaward edges. Hawk Channel is bumpy but manageable. If the wind is annoying you at the reef line, tuck into the lee of an island or fish the bayside structure.

If you’re heading out late: Expect east winds near 15 knots through the evening. Seas 2-3 ft in Hawk Channel, 3-4 ft offshore. The night incoming tide (4:42 PM → 10:56 PM rising) is worth fishing with lights. The new moon provides minimal light — bring good lights for squid and baitfish.

Tomorrow morning: Sunday’s early window (dawn to 10 AM) will be fishable with east winds around 15 knots. Afternoon turns rough with 15-20 knots expected by evening. Get out early or wait for Tuesday.

Midday conditions update based on NOAA FZUS52 KKEY issued 1029 AM EDT Saturday, May 16, 2026.