Captain's Log — May 19, 2026

Tuesday, May 19, and the Florida Keys are feeling the east breeze this morning. The spring ridge that gave us clean conditions last week is getting shove from a building Atlantic high north of Bermuda, and the result is a stiff east wind running 15-20 knots through the day. This isn’t a shutout — far from it — but it’s a day that demands a plan and a crew that can handle a chop.

The 4:28 AM NWS Key West update carries Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across all zones. Hawk Channel is running 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5, and the offshore Straits are 3 to 5 with 6-footers popping up. The east swell is short-period wind waves at 6 seconds — stacked, tight, and punchy.

But here’s the thing about a steady east breeze in the Keys: it organizes bait, stacks it against the reef edges, and turns the bite on. The fish don’t mind the chop. They’re feeding in the turbulence. The question is whether you and your crew are comfortable enough to work it.

Let’s break it down.

NOAA Marine Forecast Summary

Source: National Weather Service Key West marine forecast, issued 4:28 AM EDT Tuesday, May 19, 2026

• Synopsis: Surface high pressure centered north of Bermuda promoting moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes through tonight. Highest breezes through this evening. Slow slackening before the weekend with evening peaks and daytime lulls. Rain and thunder chances above normal through much of the week
• Wind: East winds 15 to 20 knots — stiff, sustained, gusty
• Hawk Channel seas: 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet — nearshore waters choppy
• Offshore Straits: 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: East 4 feet at 6 seconds — short-period wind waves, punchy and tight
• Weather: A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms — rain chances elevated
• Pattern: Pre-frontal. High pressure pumping east wind. Rain and thunder chances above normal all week. A slow slackening trend begins toward the weekend

Gulf Stream Position

NOAA’s latest shoreward edge report (as of May 12 — fresh update from last week):

• 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light (off Islamorada) — pulled in 4 miles closer than last week!
• 4 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light (off Key Largo)
• 3 NM southeast of Carysfort Reef Light (off Ocean Reef)
• 6 NM southeast of Sombrero Key Light (off Marathon)
• 7 NM south of Looe Key (off Big Pine Key)
• 6 NM south of Sand Key Light (off Key West)
• 9 NM south of Cosgrove Shoal Light (off the Marquesas Keys)
• 35 NM south of Dry Tortugas Light on Loggerhead Key

This is a major update from the May 5 analysis. The Gulf Stream edge has pushed significantly closer to the reef chain — Alligator went from 10 miles to 6 miles, Molasses from 8 to 4. That puts clean blue water, temperature breaks, and pelagic species within a short run even on a breezy day. Gulf Stream info courtesy NASA SPoRT and RTOFS via National Weather Service Key West.

Real-Time Buoy Observations

Sombrero Key (SMKF1) — 5:30 AM EDT:

• Wind: E 15-17 knots, gusting 20-22
• Pressure: 30.03 in and steady
• Air temp: 80-81°F
• Wave period: Short-period wind waves dominating

Peterson Key (PKYF1) — Florida Bay:

• Water temperature: 83.7°F (4:00 AM reading) — peaked at 86.2°F yesterday afternoon
• Salinity: 39.03 psu — clean salt, no freshwater intrusion
• Tide: -0.69 ft at time of reading — outgoing

The 83.7°F reading at dawn is warm. Expect surface temps to climb to 85-86°F by afternoon. The Gulf Stream edge will be a few degrees cooler but the contrast creates the temperature breaks that trigger feeding activity.

Tide Timeline (Islamorada, Florida Bay)

Event	Time	Height
High Tide	1:44 AM	1.3 ft
Low Tide	7:16 AM	0.5 ft
High Tide	12:37 PM	2.8 ft
Low Tide	9:16 PM	-0.6 ft

Moon phase: Waxing Crescent (3% illuminated) — minimal lunar tide influence. The 2.8-ft midday high is the dominant tide event today. That afternoon incoming push will stack water against the reef right when the morning breeze starts to ease slightly.

Key tide strategy: Low tide at 7:16 AM means the morning outgoing is already spent. The bite window opens as the incoming builds toward the 12:37 PM high. Plan for a late-morning start, fish the building flood, and ride it through the early afternoon. The afternoon drop (after 1:00 PM) should still fish well for the first few hours before the outgoing kills the reef bite.

---

Reef-by-Reef Breakdown

Molasses Reef (Upper Keys)

Zone: Hawk Channel / Straits of Florida

Molasses takes the full force of the east wind today. The reef face runs north-south, which means an east wind pushes directly onto the structure. The chop will be sporty — 2-4 feet, occasionally 5 — but the organized east breeze lays a clean chum slick that follows the reef axis.

• Wind: E 15-20 knots — gusty, sustained
• Hawk Channel seas: 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 — choppy
• Gulf Stream edge: 4 miles southeast — the closest it’s been in weeks
• Water clarity: The east wind will stir up some turbidity on the reef top, but the deeper edge at 40-60 feet should hold cleaner water
• Bottom structure: Classic reef face with ledges and coral heads in 40-60 feet
• The play: This is a “big boat” reef today. If you’re in a 24-foot plus center console with a sharp entry, you can work it. Smaller boats will get bounced. Anchor on the lee side if possible, or drift the deeper edge. The 6-second wave period means the chop is tight and stacked — expect a rough ride but a feeding bite
• Tide: The incoming building to 12:37 PM high is your window. The afternoon outgoing (after 1:00 PM) should hold a decent yellowtail bite for a couple hours before the water stacks off the structure
• The Gulf Stream at 4 miles: This is dangerous territory — dangerously good. Four miles from the reef to blue water. If the reef is too sporty, you can run out in 10 minutes and find clean water temperature breaks

Conch Reef

Zone: Hawk Channel

Conch sits in a slightly more protected position relative to the east wind, but the fetch is still open. The reef structure in 40-60 feet has been producing consistently.

• E wind at 15-20 knots — sporty but fishable in the right boat
• Seas: 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 — expect the same chop as Molasses
• Tide: Building toward 12:37 PM high. The incoming pushes clean water onto the reef
• Target species: Yellowtail snapper and muttons on the chum slick. The chop helps mask the boat and leader — fish that spook in flat calm might bite today
• The play: Anchor and chum heavy. The steady east breeze lays a scent trail that travels. Yellowtails in 40-60 feet. Muttons deeper on the ledge at 60-80 feet
• Drift option: A controlled drift over the structure with the east wind pushing you along the reef axis is productive today. The key is managing the drift speed — the 15-20 knot breeze will push you faster than ideal. Use a drift sock or sea anchor

Davis Reef

Zone: Hawk Channel

Davis is one of the better options in an east wind. The reef structure runs parallel to the wind direction, giving you a longer drift window over productive bottom. The wreck structure at 60-80 feet holds quality fish.

• Wind: E 15-20 knots
• Seas: 2-4 feet in Hawk Channel
• Bottom: Wreck structure and limestone ledges in 60-80 feet. The deeper profile handles the chop better than the shallower reefs
• Target species: Mutton snapper on the deep structure is the headliner. Yellowtail snapper on the reef edges. Cero mackerel working the face. Amberjack on the deeper wreck
• The call: Davis is the “out of the wind” play for the upper keys. The deeper water takes the edge off the chop. Anchor on the incoming tide and chum the column. The fish will be aggressive today — the chop masks presentation and the steady wind pushes a chum trail that fish can follow for miles
• Tip: The wreck structure at Davis holds muttons that see less pressure than Molasses or Conch. Drop a live bait on the deeper edge and hold on

Crocker Reef

Zone: Hawk Channel

Crocker is a solid option for bigger boats running south. The reef in 50-70 feet has the same east wind exposure as the northern reefs, but the deeper structure handles the sea state better.

• Wind: E 15-20 knots
• Seas: 2-4 feet, occasional 5
• Bottom: Scattered limestone outcroppings and ledges
• Target species: Mutton snapper, yellowtail snapper, black grouper
• The call: Crocker is a drift play today. The east wind pushes you over the scattered structure at a manageable speed if you deploy a sock. The mutton bite on the deeper ledges is the primary target. Yellowtails will be scattered in the chop — chum them up and they’ll bite
• Offshore option: Crocker to the Gulf Stream edge is a 15-minute run at 6 miles out. If the reef is too rough, punch out to the stream edge for color change and temperature breaks

Alligator Reef

Zone: Hawk Channel / Straits of Florida

Alligator is the signature Islamorada reef, and today it’s the closest it’s been to the stream in weeks. The May 12 Gulf Stream analysis puts the edge at 6 miles southeast of Alligator Light — down from 10 miles on May 5. That’s a massive difference.

• Wind: E 15-20 knots on the reef, east winds in the Straits
• Hawk Channel seas: 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5
• Offshore seas: 3 to 5 feet, occasionally 6 — wave detail: east 4 feet at 6 seconds
• Gulf Stream edge: 6 miles southeast — doable in most boats, even in today’s chop
• Target species: Yellowtails and muttons on the reef structure. Kingfish and cero mackerel on the outer reef edge. Mahi-mahi, blackfin tuna, and sailfish at the stream edge
• The play: Fish the reef on the incoming tide (building to 12:37 PM high), then run the 6 miles to the stream edge for an afternoon pelagic session. The 3-5 foot seas offshore are sporty but not dangerous in a capable boat. The wind is pushing from the same direction as your run — expect a bumpy ride out and a smoother ride back
• The 6-second wave period is the wild card: Tight period means short, steep waves. Your boat handles the spacing — some boats love 6-second intervals, some hate them. Know your ride
• Tide: High at 12:37 PM at 2.8 ft — solid incoming that pushes water hard onto the reef. The bite should be good from 9:00 AM through 2:00 PM

Tennessee Reef

Zone: Hawk Channel / Straits of Florida

Tennessee is the deepest of the named Islamorada reefs and the best option for escaping the chop. The structure drops to 80-100 feet, and the deeper water profile knocks down the wave height significantly.

• Wind: E 15-20 knots
• Seas: 2-4 feet on the reef structure, settling at depth
• Bottom structure: Hard bottom with coral patches in 80-100 feet
• Target species: Mutton snapper, yellowtail snapper, amberjack, grouper
• The call: Tennessee is the “comfort” play in an east wind. The deeper water means less chop. The structure holds quality muttons and amberjacks that don’t see the pressure of the northern reefs. Drop a live bait deep and work the bottom. If the surface is sporty, the fish are still chewing at 80 feet
• Gulf Stream edge: Tennessee sits closer to the stream than the northern reefs, though the new May 12 report puts the edge at 6 miles south-southeast of the reef — slightly further than Alligator but still close

---

Species Outlook

Yellowtail Snapper

Outlook: Good

The east wind is a double-edged sword for yellowtails. The chop masks presentation and the chum slick travels, but the turbidity can slow the bite in shallower water. Fish the deeper edge of the reef in 50-70 feet where the water is cleaner.

• Best reefs: Davis, Crocker, Tennessee — deeper structure with cleaner water
• Best tide: Incoming building to 12:37 PM high, and the first 2 hours of the outgoing
• Gear: Standard chum slick with sand fleas/chum, #2 hooks, 20-30 lb fluorocarbon leader
• Tip: The chop is your friend today. Yellowtails that spook in flat calm conditions will bite aggressively in the turbulence. Chum heavy, fish deep, and hold on

Mutton Snapper

Outlook: Excellent

Muttons love rough water. The chop kicks up crustaceans and small baitfish, and the muttons move in to feed. The deeper ledges in 60-100 feet are the proven zones. Davis, Crocker, and Tennessee are the calls.

• Tackle: Live bait or whole ballyhoo on a knocker rig, 40-50 lb leader
• Depth: 60-100 feet on the structure edges
• Tip: Drift the deeper edges today. The muttons will be aggressive. If you find a school on the structure, drop a live bait and prepare for a fight. The 2.8-ft incoming high at 12:37 PM will push them onto the ledges

Mahi-Mahi

Outlook: Good

May is mahi month, and the Gulf Stream edge has pulled in to 4-6 miles. The stream sits closer than it has all spring. Scattered sargassum lines are holding fish, and the east wind stacks weed against the temperature breaks.

• The stream edge off Alligator (6 miles) and Molasses (4 miles) are the closest shots in months
• Look for: Sargassum lines, temperature breaks, frigate birds working
• Tackle: Trolled ballyhoo or splash bait. Pitch live bait to working fish
• Tip: The 4-6 mile run to the stream is short enough that you can make a quick scout even in the chop. If you find clean water and weed lines, the mahi will be there
• Water temp: 84°F on the reef, likely 82-83°F at the stream edge — warm enough for mahi

Kingfish and Cero Mackerel

Outlook: Good

Kings love a chop. The east wind organizes bait along the reef edge and the mackerel respond. The outer reef edge in 40-80 feet is the zone.

• Gear: Flashy spoons, ribbonfish, live bait on wire leader
• The east wind drift: The organized 15-20 knot breeze gives you a clean trolling speed along the reef axis
• Tip: Work the edges of the reef structure where the wind pushes baitfish against the drop-off. Kings sit on the down-current side waiting for disoriented prey

Sailfish

Outlook: Fair to Good

Late spring sailfish are scattered but the stream edge at 4-6 miles is the best bet. The short run to the Gulf Stream makes the offshore window accessible even on a breezy day.

• Target zone: Gulf Stream edge at 4-6 miles southeast of the reef
• Best window: Late morning through early afternoon as the incoming tide pushes bait toward the stream
• Bait: Ballyhoo or live bait on the edge
• Tip: The 6-second period east swell is tight — sailfish prefer a longer period. But the temperature breaks at the 4-mile stream edge create feeding conditions that override wave period preferences. If the water looks right, fish it

Blackfin Tuna

Outlook: Fair

Scattered schools around the stream edge. Look for bird activity and breaking fish. The short run to the Gulf Stream makes this a viable afternoon target.

• Where: The Gulf Stream edge at 4-6 miles out
• How: Spot birds working, chunk with ballyhoo or live bait
• Tip: If the stream edge is holding bait, the tuna will be underneath. They’re not thick yet in May but the schoolie class is moving through

Tarpon & Backcountry

Outlook: Good

Florida Bay today: East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Seas 1-3 feet in the open bay.

• Tide: Low tide at 7:16 AM at 0.5 ft — a moderate low. The outgoing pulled water off the flats overnight
• The incoming building to the 12:37 PM high pushes tarpon onto the edges of the flats
• Moon phase: Waxing Crescent (3%) — minimal lunar current. The tidal exchange is driven by the wind, not the moon
• The backcountry is fishable today but the chop will be sporty in open water. Stick to protected creeks and channel edges where the mangroves break the wind
• Wind direction: The east wind pushes water out of Florida Bay. Expect drawn-down conditions on the west side of the bay. Tarpon will be stacked in the deeper channels
• Tip: The east wind makes the Gulf-side passes (Channel 2, Channel 5) the place to be. The wind pushes bait through the cuts and the tarpon ambush the bottleneck

---

Captain’s Recommendation

Here’s the call for Tuesday, May 19:

1. The reef is fishable but sporty. East winds 15-20 knots, Hawk Channel 2-4 feet, occasional 5. This is a “big boat” day — 24+ foot center consoles and larger will handle it fine. Smaller boats should stick to the deeper reefs (Davis, Crocker, Tennessee) where the water column absorbs the chop or punch to the backcountry.

2. The Gulf Stream is closer than it’s been all spring. The May 12 NOAA update moved the shoreward edge from 10 miles to 6 miles off Alligator, and from 8 to 4 miles off Molasses. This is a game-changer. Even in the 3-5 foot offshore seas, a 4-6 mile run is manageable for most boats. The temperature breaks, clean blue water, and pelagic action are minutes from the reef.

3. The midday high tide at 12:37 PM (2.8 ft) is the pivot. The incoming builds from 7:16 AM low to the 12:37 PM high — that’s your primary bite window. The first 2-3 hours of the outgoing (1:00 PM - 4:00 PM) should still fish well for yellowtails and muttons before the water drains off the structure.

4. The backcountry is the wind-protected fallback. Florida Bay is choppy but the creeks and mangrove edges are fishable. The east wind draws down the bay and stacks tarpon in deeper channels. The Gulf-side passes are the place to be — wind pushes bait through the cuts.

5. Elevated rain and thunder chances. This is the first forecast in a while to carry elevated rain chances through the week. The chance of showers is real — not a day-wrecker, but keep an eye on the western sky after 2:00 PM. The slight chance of thunderstorms is worth monitoring.

6. The breeze peaks in the evening and slacks during the day. The NWS synopsis specifically calls out “evening peaks and daytime lulls.” The morning might start sporty but expect a slight easing midday before the breeze tightens again this evening. Factor this into your timing — get out early, fish through midday, and come back before the evening build.

7. The slackening trend starts Wednesday. Tomorrow (Wednesday, May 20) shows east winds dropping to 10-15 knots, Hawk Channel at 1-2 feet. Thursday lightens further to near 10 knots. The pattern loosens toward the weekend. If today is too sporty for your setup, Friday and Saturday look significantly better.

8. Boat prep today: tie it down. The 15-20 knot breeze will test your deck organization. Everything loose becomes a missile. Rods in holders, coolers strapped, hatches secured. The 3-5 foot offshore seas will spray — bring rain gear even if the sky looks clean.

---

Short-Range Outlook

Tonight (Tuesday Night)

• East winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots
• Hawk Channel: 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet
• Offshore Straits: 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: East 4 feet at 5 seconds
• A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
• Nearshore waters: Choppy, becoming a moderate chop

Wednesday, May 20

• East winds 10 to 15 knots — easing trend starts
• Hawk Channel: 1 to 2 feet — significant improvement
• Offshore Straits: 3 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet. Wave detail: East 4 feet at 5 seconds
• A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
• Nearshore waters: Light to moderate chop

Wednesday Night

• East winds 10 to 15 knots
• Seas: 1-2 feet reef, 3-4 feet offshore
• A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues

Thursday, May 21

• East winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots
• Seas: 1-2 feet in Hawk Channel
• Offshore Straits: 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet
• Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
• The slackening trend accelerates. Thursday afternoon looks significantly cleaner than today

Thursday Night

• East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots
• Seas around 2 feet offshore
• Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms

Friday, May 22

• East to southeast winds near 10 knots — the lightest day of the stretch
• Seas: 1 to 2 feet in Hawk Channel, 2 to 3 feet offshore
• Slight chance of showers
• Nearshore waters: Light chop
• Friday is the target day this week. If you’re waiting on conditions, wait for Friday

Saturday, May 23

• East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots — slight step back up
• Seas: 1 to 2 feet reef, 2 to 4 feet occasional 5 offshore
• A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
• Saturday night: East to southeast 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet

---

Final Take

Tuesday is a day for the seasoned crew. The east wind at 15-20 knots is stiff but predictable, and the fish are adjusted to it. The big story is the Gulf Stream edge pulling in to 4-6 miles off the reef — the closest position of the spring. Even in a chop, that’s a short run to clean blue water, temperature breaks, and pelagic species.

The slackening trend starts Wednesday and accelerates through the week. Wednesday is 10-15 knots with 1-2 foot Hawk Channel seas. Thursday lightens further. Friday looks like the lightest day of the stretch at near 10 knots.

If you can handle the bounce, today offers aggressive feeding fish on a structure that’s closer to the stream than it’s been in weeks. Chum heavy, fish the incoming tide, and keep one eye on the western sky. The evening breeze will tighten, so plan your return accordingly.

Tight lines.

---

NOAA Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:28 AM EDT Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Real-time buoy data from SMKF1 (Sombrero Key) and PKYF1 (Peterson Key) as of 5:00-5:30 AM EDT. Tide predictions for Islamorada, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay (May 19, 2026: low 7:16 AM 0.5 ft, high 12:37 PM 2.8 ft, low 9:16 PM -0.6 ft). Moon: Waxing Crescent (3%). Water temperature: Islamorada 84°F, Peterson Key 83.7°F. Gulf Stream information courtesy NASA SPoRT and RTOFS via National Weather Service Key West (May 12, 2026 analysis). Always check the latest conditions before leaving the dock.

---

Midday Conditions Addendum — 11:30 AM EDT (3:30 PM UTC)

NOAA’s updated forecast at 10:43 AM EDT confirms the pattern is holding steady. Conditions on the water right now are matching the morning call.

Live Buoy Observations (Midday)

Station	Wind	Gust	Direction	Pressure	Temp
Long Key (LKWF1)	15 kts	17 kts	ESE (110°)	1021.4 hPa	—
Sombrero Key (SMKF1)	11 kts	13 kts	E (100°)	1019.0 hPa	82°F

The Long Key buoy tells the real story for Islamorada waters: true east-southeast at 15 gusting 17 — dead center in the 15-20 kt forecast window. Pressure gradient at 1021 hPa confirms the Bermuda High is still pumping fresh air down the Straits.

What Changed Since the 4:28 AM Forecast

Bottom line: virtually nothing changed. The 10:43 AM NOAA update is essentially a confirmation of the morning forecast. This is the “hold” — the pattern is locked in and behaving as predicted.

Factor	Dawn (4:28 AM)	Late Morning (10:43 AM)	Change
Synopsis	”Highest breezes through this evening"	"Highest breezes through tonight”	✅ Same
Florida Bay	E 15-20, choppy, rain chance	E 15-20, choppy, rain/thunder chance	✅ Same
Hawk Channel	E 15-20, 2-4 ft occ 5 ft	E 15-20, 2-4 ft occ 5 ft	✅ Same
Wednesday	E 10-15, 1-2 ft Hawk Channel	E 10-15, 1-2 ft (2-3 ft west of Cosgrove)	⬇️ Slightly rougher far west
Scattered showers	Chance of showers, slight thunder	Chance of showers, slight thunder	✅ Same

Wind Reality Check at 11:30 AM

The breeze has actually been slightly lighter than the peak morning gusts. Sombrero Key settled to 11 kts sustained compared to the 15 kt gusts at dawn. This aligns with the NWS synopsis calling out “daytime lulls” — the wind typically eases during the midday hours before tightening again toward evening.

For boats on the water right now: You’re in the lull window. If you went out early when the breeze was its stiffest, you’ve already seen the worst of the wind for today. The next build comes this evening (same 15-20 kt range), so you’ve got solid fishing conditions through at least 4-5 PM.

Key difference from the morning outlook: The tide timing I’m seeing from the 10:43 AM period suggests high tide closer to 2:00 PM at approximately 2.7 ft — slightly later and marginally lower than the 12:37 PM high used in the dawn forecast. This shifts the bite window slightly. Incoming is building now and pushes through to early afternoon — fish it.

Afternoon Watch Items

• Scattered convection: Radar shows a few cells pushing off the mainland into Florida Bay. Nothing organized, but keep a weather eye west. The chance of a brief afternoon shower is real but not a day-wrecker.
• Wind build: The evening tightens after 5 PM. East winds back to 15-20 kts. The chop comes back up around dinner time.
• Tomorrow morning: Confirmed improved. East 10-15 kts, Hawk Channel down to 1-2 ft. Wednesday dawn patrol is the green light for anyone who sat today out.

---

Midday addendum based on NOAA FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:43 AM EDT, real-time buoy data from LKWF1 (Long Key) and SMKF1 (Sombrero Key) as of 14:48-15:00 UTC. Tide updated per midday observation.

---

Evening Conditions Addendum — 5:00 PM EDT (9:00 PM UTC)

NOAA’s 4:20 PM EDT update is in, and it paints a clear picture of how the day played out versus the morning forecast — and what’s coming tonight and tomorrow.

The Afternoon Verdict: Forecast Verified

The 4:20 PM NWS Key West forecast confirms the same pattern. The Small Craft Caution advisory persists through the evening, and the wind buildup materialized right on schedule.

Real-time buoy recap — how the day unfolded:

Sombrero Key (SMKF1):

• 1:00 PM — SE 17 gusting 21 kts (peak afternoon wind)
• 2:00 PM — SE 12 gusting 14 kts (midday slack as predicted)
• 3:00 PM — E 11 gusting 14 kts (holding lighter)
• 4:00 PM — E 7 gusting 9 kts (brief lull before evening build)
• 4:40 PM — ESE 12 gusting 14 kts (evening build starting)

Long Key (LKWF1):

• 2:00 PM — E 11 gusting 13 kts, water 82.8°F
• 3:00 PM — E 12 gusting 14 kts, water 83.3°F
• 4:00 PM — E 12 gusting 14 kts, water 83.8°F

Key observations for the afternoon:

• Wind peaked at SE 17 gusting 21 around 1:00 PM — right in the 15-20 kt forecast range. The midday “daytime lull” held true with sustained winds settling to 11-12 kts in the peak afternoon heat.
• Water temp topped out at 83.8°F (Long Key, 4:00 PM) — the warmest reading of the day. Five degrees over the dawn 78°F air temp. That’s a solid afternoon warmup that organized the temperature breaks.
• Pressure dropped 2.0 hPa through the afternoon (1019.5 → 1017.5 at Sombrero Key). Nothing alarming, but signals the Bermuda High is relaxing its grip. This aligns with the forecast slackening trend.
• Wind direction shifted from E (100°) in the morning → SE (140°) mid-afternoon → ESE (110°) by late afternoon. Classic clockwise shift as the high pressure gradient weakens.

Tonight’s Conditions

The evening wind build is here. NOAA 4:20 PM confirms:

• Wind: East 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots overnight
• Hawk Channel: 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet
• Offshore Straits: 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: East 4 feet at 5 seconds
• Florida Bay: E 15-20 kt becoming near 15 kt, choppy becoming moderate chop
• Weather: Chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms

Low tide tonight: 9:16 PM at -0.6 feet. A draining low. For evening anglers, the outgoing is flushing the reef. Focus on deep channels and Gulf-side passes where bait concentrates on the falling tide.

Tomorrow’s Outlook — Wednesday, May 20

Confirmed improved. The 4:20 PM forecast seals it:

Factor	Tuesday	Wednesday	Change
Wind	E 15-20 kt	E 10-15 kt	⬇️ 5-8 kt lighter
Hawk Channel seas	2-4 ft occ 5	1-2 ft	⬇️ Significant drop
Offshore seas	3-5 ft occ 6	3-4 ft occ 5	⬇️ Modest improvement
Small Craft advisory	Yes (caution)	None	✅ Clear
Wed. Night seas	—	1-2 ft reef, 3-4 ft offshore	↔️ Steady
Rain/thunder	Chance/slight	Chance/slight	↔️ Same

⚠️ Important detail for the Lower Keys: The Hawk Channel forecast notes 2 to 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light (Key West / Marquesas). For Islamorada waters — Alligator, Davis, Crocker, Tennessee — it’s 1 to 2 feet. That’s a textbook fishable day.

Wednesday Night: East winds 10-15 kt, 1-2 ft seas, moderate chop. Rain chances continuing.

The Week Ahead

Thursday (May 21): E 10 kt increasing to 10-15 kt. Seas 1-2 ft. Slight chance of showers. This looks like the cleanest day of the stretch — near 10 kt in the morning with building afternoon breeze. Morning bite window will be excellent.

Friday (May 22): ESE near 10 kt. Seas 1-2 ft. Slight chance of showers. Target day. The Gulf Stream at 4-6 miles with 1-2 ft seas and 85°F afternoon water temps. Mahi, sailfish, blackfin — it’s all in play.

Saturday (May 23): ESE 10-15 kt. Seas 1-2 ft reef, 2-4 ft occasional 5 offshore. Very fishable. Slight step-up from Friday.

Sunday (May 24): ESE near 15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft. Winds building toward evening. Sunday night: E 15-20 kt, seas 2-4 ft occ 5 — next front signal approaching.

Final Evening Take

The day verified the forecast in full: stiff east breeze through the morning, a midday slack window with sustained winds dropping to 11-12 kt, then the evening build back to 15-20 kt that’s underway now. The pressure drop through the afternoon (2.0 hPa) is the first real signal that the Bermuda High is relaxing its grip.

For tonight: Breeze is up. Secure the boat. Low tide at 9:16 PM (-0.6 ft) drains the reef — fish the passes and deep channels if you’re on the water.

For Wednesday morning: Green light. East 10-15 kt, 1-2 ft Hawk Channel, no Small Craft advisory. Dawn patrol gets clean conditions for the first time since Sunday. The Gulf Stream at 4-6 miles with calm seas is the call — mahi on the weed lines, sails on the temperature breaks.

The pattern is breaking. The high pressure ridge that pinned us in this stiff east breeze for three days is weakening. Thursday and Friday look better still. If you sat out Tuesday because of the chop, Wednesday through Friday is your window.

Tight lines.

---

Evening addendum based on NOAA FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:20 PM EDT Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Real-time buoy data from SMKF1 (Sombrero Key) and LKWF1 (Long Key) as of 4:00-4:40 PM EDT. Tide: Low 9:16 PM -0.6 ft, Wednesday low ~7:50 AM 0.4 ft. Gulf Stream info per NOAA SPoRT/RTOFS May 12 analysis.