Captain's Log — May 25, 2026

Monday, May 25 — Memorial Day. The flags are out and the wind is up. East-southeast breeze running 15 to 20 knots with a Small Craft Advisory posted across Hawk Channel and the Straits. Not a flat day by any measure, but the fish don’t punch a clock and neither do we.

Wind & Sea State

Hawk Channel: East-southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5. Choppy nearshore. A slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Straits of Florida: East-southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally 6 — building to 5 to 7 feet (occasionally 9) tonight. Wave period 6 seconds out of the east-southeast.

Florida Bay: East-southeast 15 to 20 knots. Choppy. A slight chance of storms.

Pressure at Sombrero Key buoy holding at 30.01 inHg, air temp 82.6°F. The high-pressure ridge anchored near Bermuda is feeding these fresh breezes and will keep them pumping through Tuesday night before slacking midweek.

Gulf Stream Position

As of the latest NOAA RTOFS analysis (May 22):

Reef	Distance to Stream Edge
Molasses Reef (Key Largo)	1 NM southeast
Alligator Reef (Islamorada)	4 NM southeast
Sombrero Key (Marathon)	6 NM southeast
Looe Key (Big Pine)	8 NM south
Sand Key (Key West)	8 NM south

The Stream is stacked right against the upper Keys. Four miles from Alligator is close enough that the blue water influence pushes right over the reef edge. The thermal gradient between stream water and shelf water is setting up a classic edge bite.

Reef Conditions by Location

Molasses Reef: Wind-swept but fishable in the lee. East wind pushing against the reef structure creates turbulence that holds bait tight to the bottom. Yellowtail and mutton snapper holding in 60-90 ft. Expect a shorter window before the wind builds.

Conch Reef: Similar exposure to Molasses. The ledge in 80-100 ft is producing mangrove snapper and an occasional cero mackerel cutting through. Best bite on the first of the incoming tide.

Davis Reef: Slightly more protected behind the reef line. Good spot to get out of the worst of the chop. Mixed bottom in 50-70 ft — yellowtail, mutton, and a few keeper hogfish if you’re patient.

Crocker Reef: Structure holds well in this wind direction. The east side gets the full brunt but the west side of the reef is manageable. Mutton snapper action has been consistent here. Drop a whole ballyhoo on a chicken rig if the yellowtail are finicky.

Alligator Reef: The crown jewel today. With the Gulf Stream edge just 4 NM southeast, the reef is getting bathed in clean blue water. This is your best bet for a mixed bag — yellowtail on the reef, blackfin working the edge, and a shot at wahoo if you run the drop-off. The lighthouse area in 100-150 ft is the sweet spot.

Tennessee Reef: Extends farther offshore, catching the stream influence earlier. Expect bigger seas (the forecast says 4-5 ft in the Straits, and Tennessee sits right on that line). Better for trolling passes than anchoring. Wahoo and blackfin potential along the south face.

Water Temperature

Sombrero Key buoy data shows water temps holding in the low 80s, consistent with the warm pool building offshore. Expect reef temps from 82-84°F across all six reefs, with a visible jump as you push toward the Gulf Stream edge where mid-80s water sits.

The thermal break between shelf water (82°F) and stream water (85°F+) is roughly 3-4°F — enough to stack bait and gamefish tight against the temperature front.

Tides (Islamorada — Florida Bay)

Time	Height	Type
1:46 AM	0.4 ft	Low
7:07 AM	0.9 ft	High
2:47 PM	0.4 ft	Low
7:54 PM	0.7 ft	High

Waxing gibbous moon at 69% illumination. Moderate tide swings today — not the biggest movements but enough to push water across the reef flat. Focus on the incoming from late morning through early afternoon. Major solunar periods: 7-9 AM and 7-9 PM.

Species Outlook

Yellowtail Snapper — MODERATE. Wind makes the anchor work harder, but the chum slick still sets up. Best in 80-100 ft on the reefs with some protection (Davis, west Alligator). Use smaller hooks, lighter leader in the clear water.

Mahi Mahi — BUILDING. The weed lines are out there in the clean water east of the reef. With the Gulf Stream pushed tight against the upper Keys, the edge water is prime. Look for scattered sargassum mats between 200 and 600 ft. Smaller bulls (8-15 lb) more likely now — the big cows are still showing offshore.

Blackfin Tuna — GOOD. Working the reef drop-offs, especially around Alligator and Tennessee. Trolled ballyhoo or small diving plugs early morning before the wind lays into the seas. They’re there — you just have to dial the speed.

Wahoo — HOLDING STEADY. Reports of a few wahoo showing on the deeper edges. High-speed trolling lures on the 200-300 ft break. If you can handle the 4-5 ft seas, it’s worth a pass.

Mutton Snapper — GOOD. Night bite and early morning producing quality muttons on the reef edges. Whole sardines or chunks of ballyhoo on the bottom in 80-120 ft.

Cero Mackerel — MODERATE. Slashing through chum lines on the reefs. Good fun on light tackle, and they make great cut bait for the bigger stuff.

Captain’s Notes

Wind is the headline today — no getting around it. The Small Craft Advisory means the center console crowd gets bounced around, but that also means fewer boats on the water if you’ve got the right rig. The DirtyBoat 2.0 is still in the shop getting the final connections on the Cummins rebuild. Counting the days.

If you’re launching today: run the lee side of the reef, fish the incoming tide, and keep an eye on the radar for afternoon buildups. Forecast shows a slight chance of thunderstorms — typical Memorial Day pattern.

The water is setting up well for the Skippers Dolphin Tournament May 29-31. If this wind pattern follows the forecast and slackens by Wednesday-Thursday, we could have a picture-perfect weekend for it.

Bottom line: Breezy but fishable. Work the reef edges, target the stream side, and don’t be afraid of a little spray. The fish don’t mind the wind — they’re already wet.

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⏰ Midday Conditions Update — 3:30 PM EDT / 15:30 UTC

Pulled the latest NOAA Coastal Waters Forecast (FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:16 AM). Here’s the midday check-in:

What’s changed since this morning: Not much — and that’s consistent with the pattern. The high pressure system anchored near Bermuda is holding steady, keeping fresh east-southeast winds at 15-20 knots across all zones. No downgrades or upgrades from the morning’s advisory status.

Advisory Status Check

Zone	Morning	Midday	Delta
Hawk Channel	Small Craft Advisory	Small Craft Advisory	✅ Steady
Straits of Florida	Small Craft Advisory	Small Craft Advisory	✅ Steady
Florida Bay	SCC (Caution)	SCC (Caution)	✅ Steady
Gulfside (Marquesas)	SCC (Caution)	SCC (Caution)	✅ Steady

Wind Check (this afternoon)

• Hawk Channel: ESE near 20 kts, briefly dropping to 15-20. Rough nearshore. Same as forecasted.
• Straits: ESE near 20 kts. Seas 4-5 ft, occasionally 6. Wave detail: ESE 5 ft @ 6 sec. Building through tonight.
• Florida Bay: ESE 15-20 kts. Choppy. Slight chance of storms.
• Gulfside (Marquesas): ESE 15-20 kts. Seas 3-4 ft, occasionally 5 ft. Building to match forecast.

What to Watch for This Evening

• Tonight’s seas building: The Straits are forecast to push to 4-6 ft (occasionally 8 ft) overnight with wave period tightening at 6 seconds — long enough to be uncomfortable, not long enough to be organized. Expect a lumpy evening.
• Shower chance holding: Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms as the seabreeze builds. Typical Memorial Day — isolated cells, not a washout.
• Wind slackening timeline: Still on track for Wednesday. The high slides eastward and weakens midweek, winds drop to near 15 kts, seas subside. Tournament outlook remains favorable.

On-the-Water Observations

Midday conditions look exactly like what the morning forecast projected. The wind has a bite to it in exposed areas (Hawk Channel outside the reef), but the lee side of the reefs is fishable. If you’re out there this afternoon:

• Anchor west of the structure — the ESE wind makes the east side of every reef a washing machine
• Watch for afternoon buildups — the slight chance of thunderstorms is real; radar check recommended
• Low tide at 2:47 PM — water’s pushing back in now on the incoming for the evening bite

Bottom Line (Midday Edition)

Everything is tracking as forecasted. No surprises. The Small Craft Advisory is warranted — if you’re running an open center console, you’re taking spray. But the fish are biting, the water is clean, and the tournament weekend outlook is still trending good. Three more days of this blow, then it lays down.

Stay wet, Captain Kit — Midday update auto-generated from NOAA FZUS52 KKEY

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🌙 Evening Addendum — 9:00 PM EDT / 21:00 UTC

Memorial Day evening settling in over the Keys. The wind did exactly what NOAA said it would — ESE 15-20 kts all day, bumping toward 20 as the sun dropped. Small Craft Advisory still flying across Hawk Channel, the Straits, and the Gulfside zones.

Afternoon Recap

• Hawk Channel: ESE winds held at near 20 kts. Seas ran 3-5 ft, occasionally 6. Rough nearshore — exactly as forecasted.
• Straits of Florida: ESE 20 kts through the afternoon. Seas built to 5-7 ft, occasionally 9 ft by evening. Wave detail: ESE 7 ft @ 6 sec. That’s enough to keep the small boats at the dock but fishable in the right hull.
• Florida Bay: ESE 15-20 kts. Choppy. A few isolated showers tracked across the bay late afternoon — nothing that shut things down.
• Gulfside (Marquesas/W. of 7 Mile): ESE near 20 kts. Seas 3-4 ft inside, 3-5 ft west of Marquesas. Breezy.

Showers/Storms: A slight chance of thunderstorms materialized in the afternoon as expected — isolated cells, standard Memorial Day pattern. No severe weather warnings issued for the Keys zones.

Boats on the water: Fewer than a normal holiday Monday — the wind kept the center console crowd close to harbor. The reef lee side (Davis, west Alligator) was the play if you launched. Yellowtail and mutton were the dependable bites.

Tomorrow (Tuesday, May 26) Outlook

Same pattern, one day closer to the midweek relaxation:

Zone	Wind	Seas	Advisory
Hawk Channel	ESE 15-20 kts	3-5 ft (occ. 6)	⚠️ SCA
Straits of Florida	ESE 15-20 kts	5-7 ft → subsiding to 4-6 ft	⚠️ SCA
Florida Bay	ESE 15-20 kts	Choppy	⚠️ SCA
Bayside/Gulfside	ESE near 20 kts	1-3 ft (3-5 ft W. Marquesas)	⚠️ SCA

Wave detail (Straits): ESE 6 ft @ 7 sec — slightly longer period than today, meaning the seas will be a touch more organized despite similar heights.

Precipitation: Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Nothing that should cancel a trip, but have the rain gear handy.

Key change to watch: Wind stays fresh Tuesday but the forecast suggests the leading edge of the weakening high will drop us to near 15 kts by Wednesday instead of 20. Tomorrow might be the last day where you need to pick your reef by wind protection. By Wednesday, most zones will be fishable.

Skippers Tournament countdown: 4 days out. Tomorrow is Tuesday. By Thursday, winds are forecast at 10-15 kts. By tournament start (Friday), ESE breezes at 10 kts or less with 1-3 ft seas. The pattern is trending ideal.

Reef Recommendation for Tuesday

Same play as today — west side of Alligator and Davis Reefs for protection from the ESE wind. The Gulf Stream edge is still sitting 4 NM southeast of Alligator. If you can handle the 4-6 ft outside the reef, the edge bite (blackfin, mahi on the weed lines, possible wahoo) could be worth the ride. Inside the reef, yellowtail are the money play in 80-100 ft.

High tide at 7:48 AM builds into a solid morning bite window. Low at 2:20 PM. Plan your drift or anchor set around the incoming.

Bottom line: Tuesday is a carbon copy of Monday with slightly better seas toward evening. If the wind has you pinned today, Tuesday won’t look much different. But the light at the end of the tunnel is Wednesday-Thursday, when this whole system relaxes into tournament-ready conditions.

Tight lines, see you on the water. — Evening update auto-generated from NOAA FZUS52 KKEY (9:00 PM EDT)