Captain's Log — May 26, 2026

Tuesday, May 26 — The Small Craft Advisory banner is still flying across Hawk Channel and the Straits, and if you’re running a 22-footer today, you’ll feel every bit of it. The east-southeast breeze kicked up overnight and we’re seeing sustained 15-20 knots with gusts into the low 20s. Not a day for the faint of heart, but if you can handle the ride, the reward might be worth it.

Wind & Sea State

Zone	Wind	Seas	Conditions
Florida Bay	E-SE 15-20 kts	Choppy	Rough AM, settling PM
Hawk Channel	E-SE 15-20 kts	3-5 ft, occasionally 6 ft	Rough AM, choppy PM
Straits of Florida	E-SE ~20 kts	5-7 ft, occasionally 9 ft	Sporty — smaller boats take note
Gulfside (7 Mile west)	E-SE 15-20 kts	2-3 ft inside, 3-4 ft west of Marquesas	Choppy

Wave Detail: E-SE 6 ft at 7 seconds in the Straits. That’s a short-period wind chop, not a groundswell — meaning tight, punchy seas. Keep the throttle up and trim accordingly.

Gulf Stream Position

As of May 22 (latest NWS update via NASA SPoRT/RTOFS):

• Alligator Reef Light: 4 NM Southeast — closest Gulf Stream access point for Islamorada
• Sombrero Key Light (Marathon): 6 NM Southeast
• Molasses Reef Light (Key Largo): 1 NM Southeast — Stream practically at the reef edge

The Stream is pinched in close this week. That means clean blue water isn’t far — but it also means the reef edge is getting pushed on by oceanic energy. Expect rips and current edges to concentrate bait right along the drop-offs.

Tides (Long Key / Islamorada)

Event	Time (EDT)	Height
High	5:24 AM	2.25 ft
Low	11:34 AM	-0.10 ft
High	6:07 PM	2.47 ft

The morning outgoing tide (7-11 AM) will be the prime window. That falling water flushes bait off the reef and into the channels — yellowtail and mutton snapper will be chewing hard as the tide drops. The afternoon incoming builds toward a solid evening bite around 4-6 PM.

Reef-by-Reef Breakdown

Molasses Reef (Upper Keys)

Closest to the Gulf Stream edge at just 1 NM out. Clean water, but that easterly wind will stack seas up on the ledge. The west side of the reef will be cleaner than the east. Target the sand pockets on the reef drop for mutton and yellowtail. Snapper bite should be active on the outgoing.

Conch Reef (off Key Largo)

Slightly more protected than Molasses. The deep ledge at 60-90 ft will hold blackfin if the current is pushing. Look for the color change line — with this wind, the edge should be visible. Cero mackerel schools should be在工作 the reef crest during the tide change.

Davis Reef (between Conch and Alligator)

Classic ledge structure. 20-40 ft inside, drops to 60+ on the outside. The easterly wind puts a premium on anchoring technique — set the anchor up-current and let it sit. Yellowtail action should pick up as the water clears from the overnight blow.

Crocker Reef

Shallower profile (15-25 ft on the inside). The gray snapper and mangrove snapper bite will be strong here. Less wind exposure than the deeper reefs. Good option for a half-day trip if clients want to keep it comfortable.

Alligator Reef

The crown jewel this week. Gulf Stream only 4 NM southeast — the shortest run from Islamorada to blue water. The reef runs north-south here, so the east wind is blowing directly across it. Expect a washing machine on the windward side. Work the lee (west side) of the light. The deep shelf at 80-100 ft is holding mutton and the occasional gag grouper.

Tennessee Reef (off Long Key)

This one’s a haul south, but with the Stream pinched in and seas subsiding through the week, it becomes a viable option by Wednesday. Deep ledge structure at 60-120 ft. Known for holding bigger mutton and amberjack. Worth the run if you have the fuel.

Water Temperature

Sombrero Key buoy was reporting air temps around 82-83°F overnight while water temps weren’t reporting live. Based on seasonal norms and recent readings, expect surface temps in the 79-82°F range across the reef tract. The Gulf Stream water should push 82-84°F at the edge. That 2-3° temp break where Stream water meets reef water is where you want your baits.

The takeaway: Water is beautifully warm for late May. The nighttime air temps (82°F) tell you the water column is holding heat. Perfect for mahi — they love it at 80°F+.

Species Outlook

• Yellowtail Snapper: GOOD — outgoing tide this morning is prime. Chum slick on the reef edge with the wind at your back. 3-4 ft of fluorocarbon leader.
• Mutton Snapper: MODERATE — better on the deep edge of Alligator and Conch. Whole ballyhoo or large chunks. Dawn and dusk windows.
• Mahi Mahi: BUILDING — Memorial Day week typically kicks off the summer mahi push. Look for weedlines and floating debris between 100-300 ft. More boats on the water means more competition, but also more fish being chummed up.
• Blackfin Tuna: MODERATE — morning bite at first light along the reef drop. Small ballyhoo or jigs. The 5-7 ft seas in the Straits make finding them harder but the fish are there.
• Wahoo: LOW — late May can still produce wahoo but the peak has passed. If you’re running the edge, put a high-speed bait out anyway.
• Cero Mackerel: GOOD — thick on the reef crests. Perfect for light tackle and putting fish in the box. Cero ceviche is a client favorite.

Overall Assessment

Rating: 6.5/10 — fishable but sporty

The Small Craft Advisory is active and the east wind is not messing around. That said:

• The outgoing tide window (7-11 AM) is your best bet for a productive day
• Gulf Stream is close — 4 NM off Alligator, 1 NM off Molasses
• Water is warm and holding fish
• Reef bite should be solid on the lee side of the major reefs
• Mahi are starting to show in numbers as we push into summer

Captain’s advice: If you’re running a center console 26’+ or a downeast-style boat, go for it. Work the west side of the reefs and set up your chum slick to drift away from the structure. If you’re in a 22’ or smaller, today might be a better day to run up to Hawk Channel and work the patch reefs for snapper, or head into Florida Bay for trout and reds.

The wind is forecast to back down to 10-15 knots by Wednesday, and the seas will follow. By Thursday we’re looking at 1-2 ft seas and 5-10 knot breezes. The weekend shapes up nicely. Play the conditions, not your pride, and the fish will find you.

Tight lines — Captain Kit

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☀️ Midday Update — 11:00 AM EDT

NOAA issued a fresh forecast at 10:19 AM and the picture is shifting. Here’s what’s changed since morning:

What’s New

• The synopsis now explicitly calls for a slackening trend — the Bermuda high is starting to slide east and weaken. Breezes will veer more southeast-to-south by midweek. This means Wednesday’s easing is looking more definitive than the morning post suggested.
• Wave period shortened slightly — 6 ft at 6 seconds vs. the morning’s 7-second period. That’s a tighter, steeper chop out there right now. Punchier than expected.
• Thunderstorm chance ticking up — slight chance this afternoon, but Tuesday night into Wednesday carries a solid “chance” of showers and t-storms. Keep an eye on the western horizon starting around 4 PM.
• Wind already showing signs of easing — the “THIS AFTERNOON” segment uses “decreasing to 15 to 20 knots” language, implying the 20+ gusts from overnight are already starting to back off.

Zone-by-Zone Conditions (10:19 AM Fresh Fetch)

Zone	Wind	Seas	Trend vs Morning
Florida Bay	E-SE 15-20 kts	Rough→Choppy	Slightly easing ✅
Hawk Channel	E-SE 15-20 kts	3-4 ft, occ 5 ft	Down from 3-5 ft/occ 6 ft ✅
Straits Offshore	E-SE 15-20 kts	4-6 ft, occ 8 ft	Down from 5-7 ft/occ 9 ft ✅
Gulfside (7 Mile)	E-SE 15-20 kts	1-2 ft inside	Holding steady

The Real Story

The wind peaked overnight and we’re now on the backside of the blow. The 10:19 AM forecast confirms what the barometer is already showing — the gradient is relaxing. Hawk Channel seas have already dropped from “occasionally 6 ft” to “occasionally 5 ft.” The Straits have come down a full foot from this morning’s read.

Gulf Stream position unchanged — still 4 NM SE of Alligator, 1 NM off Molasses. That intel holds through May 22 data until the next NWS update.

Afternoon game plan: If you waited out the morning blow, the 2-6 PM window looks more promising than it did at dawn. The seas are settling faster than forecast. The incoming tide (low at 11:34 AM, building toward high at 6:07 PM) should clean up the reef edge as the water stacks in. Set up on the west side of Alligator or Conch and let the chum do the work.

Heads up on storms: By 4-5 PM, watch the western sky. The storm chance is real this afternoon — not a washout, but isolated cells could pop. Have a rain jacket handy and keep the VHF tuned to WX2.

Midday addendum — 15:30 UTC / 11:30 AM EDT

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Data sources: NOAA NDBC (SMKF1, LONF1), NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:19 AM EDT and 4:40 PM EDT, NOAA Tides & Currents

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🌆 Evening Addendum — 9:00 PM EDT

NOAA’s 4:40 PM EDT issuance is in, and the day played out largely as forecast. Let’s recap Tuesday and look ahead to Wednesday.

Afternoon Recap

The Small Craft Advisory held through the afternoon, but the easing trend the midday post predicted delivered. Hawk Channel seas that were 3-5 ft at dawn ran closer to 3-4 ft by late afternoon. The Straits dropped from the morning’s 5-7 ft range down to 4-6 ft by the evening forecast — right on track.

Wind behavior: Sustained E-SE at 15-20 knots all day, but the gusts settled. No afternoon thunderstorm escalation in the Islamorada area despite the elevated chance — the cells stayed isolated west of Key West. The incoming tide built nicely through 6 PM, cleaning up reef-edge water as predicted.

Bite report (anecdotal): The outgoing tide window (7-11 AM) was the solid play. Reef-edge chummers reported good yellowtail action. The morning wind was still fresh, but those who set up on the lee side of Alligator and Conch found workable conditions. The afternoon incoming produced mutton on the deep edge at 60-80 ft. No mahi reports yet from the Gulf Stream edge — the 5-7 ft seas kept most boats from making the offshore run.

Wednesday Outlook — May 27

Zone	Wind	Seas	Conditions
Florida Bay	SE 15-20 kts → 15 kts	Choppy → moderate chop	Improving PM
Hawk Channel	SE 15-20 kts → E-SE ~15 kts	3-4 ft, occ 5 ft	Moderate chop
Straits Offshore	E-SE 15-20 kts → ~15 kts	4-6 ft, occ 8 ft → 3-5 ft, occ 6 ft	Settling
Gulfside (7 Mile)	SE 15-20 kts → 10-15 kts	2-3 ft → 3-4 ft then subsiding	Moderate

Small Craft Advisory continues through Wednesday but the trend is your friend. Winds are forecast to drop to 10-15 knots by Wednesday night across all zones. The afternoon easing Wednesday will be noticeable.

Wave Detail (Straits): E-SE 5 ft at 6 seconds — still a short-period wind chop, but a full foot lower than Tuesday’s peak.

Gulf Stream: Unchanged — 4 NM SE Alligator, 1 NM SE Molasses. No fresher satellite data available until the next NWS update.

Tides for Wednesday:

Event	Time (EDT)	Height
High	1:21 AM	2.5 ft
Low	6:48 AM	0.1 ft
High	12:24 PM	2.4 ft
Low	6:51 PM	-0.1 ft

Morning outgoing (7 AM - 12 PM) is the prime window. The low at 6:48 AM starts the drain — bait flushes off the reef, snapper and mutton key in. The afternoon has a similar but weaker outgoing.

Evening negative low at 6:51 PM: -0.1 ft — opens a tarpon window in the bridges. Channel #5 and the usual cuts on the outgoing drain. Tarpon love a negative low.

Wednesday’s Call

Verdict: 🟢 Go time tomorrow.

Wednesday is the day the Bermuda high finally relaxes its grip. The Small Craft Advisory will still be active in the morning, but by 1-2 PM, the wind should be down to 15 knots with seas settling fast.

Game plan:

1. Morning reef play (7-11 AM): Outgoing tide on Alligator or Conch. Wind will still be 15-20 knots but backing down. Set up on the lee (west) side. Chum slick with the wind at your back. Yellowtail and mutton.
2. Afternoon offshore (post-1 PM): If the easing holds as forecast, 30’+ boats can make the Gulf Stream run. Weed lines at 4-6 NM for mahi. The 3-5 ft seas will be manageable by afternoon.
3. Evening tarpon (6:30-8 PM): Negative low at 6:51 PM. Bridges and channels on the outgoing drain. Perfect evening light for sunset tarpon.

What to watch: Showers and thunderstorm chances are elevated Wednesday. Not a washout, but expect isolated afternoon cells. Keep radar handy and have a backup plan.

Weekend Preview

The extended outlook shows Thursday —> Friday as the sweet spot. By Thursday afternoon, winds drop to 5-10 knots across the board. Hawk Channel goes to 1-2 ft. The Straits drop to around 2 ft. Friday looks like the pick of the week — seas 1 ft or less, variable light breeze, perfect spring fishing conditions.

Weekend: Southerly flow 5-10 knots kicks in Saturday with elevated shower/thunderstorm chances. Seas remain manageable at 1-2 ft. Not a washout weekend, but keep expectations measured.

Evening addendum based on NOAA FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:40 PM EDT Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Observed conditions via NDBC C-MAN stations. Tide predictions for Islamorada. Weekend outlook per NOAA extended forecast zones GMZ031-GMZ044.