Captain's Log — May 27, 2026

Wednesday, May 27 — The Small Craft Advisory is still flying this morning, but the trend is finally turning our way. The Bermuda high that’s been driving these easterly winds for days is starting to slide east and weaken. We’re looking at a day that starts sporty and finishes fishable, with Thursday and Friday shaping up as the real sweet spot of the week.

Real-Time Conditions (Sombrero Key / Long Key Buoys — 5:40 AM EDT)

Measurement	Sombrero Key (SMKF1)	Long Key (LONF1)
Wind	ESE 14-17 kts, gusts 18	SE 14-17 kts, gusts 18
Air Temp	82.8°F	82.2°F
Dew Point	78.1°F	75.9°F
Heat Index	92.5°F	90.1°F
Pressure	29.98 in (steady)	29.96 in (steady)

Wind is running ~14-17 knots sustained with gusts into the low 20s. That’s down from Tuesday night’s peak of 19-23 knots. The easing has begun.

Wind & Sea State

Zone	Wind	Seas	Conditions
Florida Bay	E-SE 15-20 kts → SE 10-15 kts	Choppy → moderate chop	Rough AM, settling
Hawk Channel	E-SE ~20 kts, decreasing to 15-20	3-5 ft, occasionally 6 ft	Rough AM, choppy PM
Straits of Florida	E-SE ~20 kts → 15-20 kts	4-5 ft, occasionally 6 ft	Sporty but settling
Gulfside (7 Mile west)	SE 15-20 kts	1-2 ft inside, 2-3 ft west	Moderate chop

Wave Detail (Straits): E-SE 5 ft at 6 seconds. Tight, short-period wind chop. The period is short enough that these seas will lay down fast once the wind backs off.

The key trend: Wind peaked overnight at 19-23 knots. We’re now on the backside. By tonight, expect SE 10-15 knots across most zones. Thursday morning looks like 5-10 knots and 1-2 ft seas — a completely different picture.

Gulf Stream Position

As of May 22 (latest NWS satellite analysis via NASA SPoRT/RTOFS):

• Alligator Reef Light: 4 NM Southeast — closest Gulf Stream access for Islamorada
• Sombrero Key Light (Marathon): 6 NM Southeast
• Molasses Reef Light (Key Largo): 1 NM Southeast — Stream practically on the reef

The Stream is pinched tight to the reef line this week. That means the clean blue water is close — too close for the wind to have mixed it out. The color change should be visible from the tower. Current edges will be sharp, and bait will be stacked against the drop-offs.

Tides (Whale Harbor / Islamorada — Station 8724580)

Event	Time (EDT)	Height
Low	1:06 AM	0.47 ft
High	7:51 AM	1.71 ft
Low	2:27 PM	-0.02 ft
High	9:15 PM	1.08 ft

Morning game plan: The outgoing tide starts around 7:51 AM as the high peaks and begins to fall. That drain flushes bait off the reef flat and into the channels through the early afternoon. The low at 2:27 PM hits a negative -0.02 ft — that’s a good negative low for tarpon in the bridges.

Key windows:

• 9 AM - 2 PM: Prime outgoing tide. Chum slick on the reef edge. Yellowtail and mutton will be chewing.
• 2:30 PM - 5 PM: Slack-to-incoming. Usually slower bite as the water stacks back in.
• 6 PM - 9 PM: Incoming building toward the evening high. Tarpon in the cuts, snapper on the reef edge as the sun drops.

Water Temperature

Sombrero Key and Long Key buoys don’t report water temp live, but air temps are running 82-83°F and the water column at this point in late May is holding steady at 79-82°F on the reef tract, 82-84°F in Gulf Stream water. The 2-3° break where stream water meets reef water is where you set up.

With the overnight air temp holding at 82-83°F, that water isn’t losing heat. The fish are comfortable and active.

Reef-by-Reef Breakdown

Molasses Reef (Upper Keys)

Gulf Stream is only 1 NM off the reef light. The easterly wind has seas stacking up on the reef edge, so work the west side of the reef structure. The sand pockets on the drop hold mutton and yellowtail. The water should be clean despite the wind — the Stream is so close it’s pushing fresh blue water right over the reef. Look for cero mackerel working the reef crest during the tide change.

Conch Reef (off Key Largo)

The deep ledge at 60-90 ft is the play here. Blackfin tuna will be pushing through if the current is running. The color change should be stark — the Stream influence keeps Conch cleaner than the inshore reefs. Anchor on the reef side and let the chum slick set up with the southeast wind. Yellowtail will find you.

Davis Reef (between Conch and Alligator)

Classic ledge at 20-40 ft inside, dropping to 60+ on the outside. The wind is from the southeast, so set the anchor up-current and let the boat settle. Davis fishes best on the outgoing when bait flushes off the shallow flat. The sponges and coral heads hold a solid population of mangrove snapper and the occasional mutton.

Crocker Reef

Shallower profile (15-25 ft inside). This is the comfort play for a day with wind still over 15 knots. The reef structure blocks some of the sea energy. Gray snapper and mangroves are the target here. If the wind has you pinned inside, Crocker is a solid half-day option that’ll put fillets in the box.

Alligator Reef

The marquee reef this week. Gulf Stream sits just 4 NM to the southeast — the shortest run from Islamorada to blue water. The reef runs north-south, and this east wind blows straight across it. Work the west side of the lighthouse. That lee side is your friend. The deep shelf at 80-100 ft is holding mutton snapper, amberjack, and the occasional black grouper. If the wind backs down by afternoon as forecast, the west side becomes entirely fishable.

Tennessee Reef (off Long Key)

Deepest of the upper-middle Keys reefs at 60-120 ft on the outside ledge. Tennessee holds bigger mutton and amberjack consistently. The run is a haul from Islamorada — about 18-20 NM — but the structure holds. If you’re fishing out of Marathon or running south, this one pays off. The deep edge holds life even when the wind is up.

Species Outlook

• Yellowtail Snapper: GOOD — outgoing tide (9 AM - 2 PM) is your window. Chum slick with the wind at your back, 3-4 ft fluorocarbon, #6 or #4 hook. They’ll be chewing on the reef edge.
• Mutton Snapper: MODERATE-GOOD — deep edge of Alligator and Conch at 60-80 ft. Fresh ballyhoo chunks or large sardines. Dawn bite is prime.
• Mahi Mahi: BUILDING — Memorial Day week always kicks off the summer push. Look for weedlines between 100-300 ft off the reef. With the seas settling through the day, the afternoon offshore window opens up for 30’+ boats.
• Blackfin Tuna: MODERATE — first light on the reef drop. Small ballyhoo or jet-head jigs. They’re there but the chop makes them harder to find.
• Cero Mackerel: GOOD — thick on the reef crests. Perfect light-tackle action for clients feeling the wind. Cero ceviche is always a crowd-pleaser.
• Tarpon: GOOD — negative low at 2:27 PM opens an evening window. Bridges on the outgoing drain. Late afternoon into sunset.
• Wahoo: LOW — late May is past peak, but if you’re running the Stream edge, put a high-speed bait out. You never know.

Overall Assessment

Rating: 7/10 — improving through the day

The Small Craft Advisory is active but the trend is clear: the wind peaked overnight and we’re on the downhill slope. Here’s the play:

• Morning (6-11 AM): Accept that it’s sporty. Work the lee side of Alligator or Conch. Outgoing tide is flushing bait. Yellowtail and mutton on the reef edge with the chum slick at your back.
• Afternoon (1-5 PM): The wind eases. Seas settle. 30’+ boats can make the Gulf Stream run. Mahi on weedlines. Blackfin at the color change.
• Evening (6-9 PM): Incoming tide, dropping wind. Negative low at 2:27 PM sets up an evening tarpon window. Bridges on the outgoing. Sunset fishing is the play.

Thursday and Friday are the days to circle. By Thursday afternoon: winds 5-10 knots, seas 1-2 ft, Hawk Channel smooth to a light chop. Friday: seas around 1 foot, variable breeze, picture-perfect spring conditions.

The weekend brings south winds at 5-10 knots with elevated thunderstorm chances. Not a washout, but keep an eye on the radar. Typical Keys summer pattern settling in.

Captain’s advice: Today is about timing. Don’t fight the morning wind. Fish the lee side, work the outgoing tide, and plan to make your move offshore after 1 PM when the breeze backs down. If you don’t have a 26’+ boat, stay on the reef side and let the chum do the work. Tomorrow and Friday are the payoff for hanging through the midweek breeze.

Tight lines — Captain Kit

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Data sources: NOAA NDBC (SMKF1, LONF1), NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:40 AM and 10:18 AM EDT May 27, 2026, NOAA Tides & Currents station 8724580 (Islamorada/Whale Harbor)

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Midday Addendum — 11:30 AM EDT

The 10:18 AM NWS Key West forecast update confirms the trend we called this morning: the wind has peaked and we’re sliding downhill.

What changed:

• Florida Bay: East to southeast 15-20 knots decreasing to near 15 knots. The Small Craft Exercise Caution flag for Florida Bay has been removed with the morning update — winds are easing as expected. Choppy conditions becoming a moderate chop.
• Bayside/Gulfside (Craig Key to 7 Mile): SCEC flag also dropped. Winds 15-20 kts decreasing to ~15 kts. Seas 1-2 feet inside, 2-4 feet (occasionally 5) west of Marquesas. The seas are laying down faster than modeled this morning.
• Hawk Channel: SCEC remains active. Winds holding at 15-20 kts, seas 3-5 ft occasionally 6 ft. No change — this zone always holds the east wind longest.
• Straits of Florida: SCEC continues. 15-20 kts, 4-5 ft occasionally 6 ft at 6-second period. Consistent with this morning’s numbers.
• Gulfside (Dry Tortugas/Rebecca Shoal): SE winds near 15 kts, 2-4 ft occasionally 5 ft. Settled.

The bottom line: The worst is behind us. Florida Bay and the inside Gulfside zones are already shedding their caution flags. Hawk Channel and the Straits are still sporty but the trajectory is downward. By tonight, expect SE 10-15 knots across the board. By Thursday morning: 5-10 knots and flat seas.

If the morning wind had you pinned to the dock, the afternoon window is real. The tide is still pushing out toward the 2:27 PM negative low — that’s your chance. Get on the lee side of Alligator or tuck into Crocker’s shallow water. The fish don’t care about the forecast, they care about the tide.

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Evening Addendum — 5:00 PM EDT

The 4:24 PM NWS Key West forecast is in, and it confirms exactly what we’ve been tracking all day: the wind keeps sliding downhill. The synopsis has shifted — the Bermuda high is flattening and pushing south, letting breezes shift southeast to south and pulling moisture up from the tropics.

Afternoon Recap

What actually happened today:

• Hawk Channel held 3-5 ft through midday as forecast. The SCEC stayed up through the afternoon, but the trend was consistently downward.
• Florida Bay settled from moderate chop to light chop by late afternoon as winds dropped to SE 10-15 knots.
• Straits of Florida ran 3-5 ft at 6-second period — sporty for small craft but manageable for 26’+ boats.
• No thunderstorm escalation materialized in the Islamorada area. The chance of PM showers was there but the instability didn’t fire locally.
• The negative low at 2:27 PM (-0.02 ft) came and went on schedule. That should have set up a solid evening tarpon window at the bridges on the incoming.

Bottom line: The day tracked the forecast well. Morning was the roughest. Afternoon eased as predicted. Anyone who waited out the morning chop was rewarded with a fishable late afternoon.

Tonight’s Forecast

Zone	Wind	Seas	Conditions
Florida Bay	SE 15 kts → SE 10-15 kts	Moderate → light chop	Showers likely, slight chance t-storms early, chance after midnight
Bayside/Gulfside (Craig Key-7 Mile)	SE 15 kts → SE 10-15 kts	1-2 ft (2-3 ft W of Marquesas)	Moderate chop settling. Showers/t-storms chance after midnight
Hawk Channel	SE 15 kts → SE 10-15 kts	2-4 ft, occ 5 ft	Light to moderate chop. Showers/t-storms chance after midnight
Straits of Florida	E-SE 20 kts → SE 10-15 kts	3-5 ft, occ 6 ft	SCAC remains — easing through the night
Gulfside (Dry Tortugas)	SE 10-15 kts	2-3 ft → ~2 ft	Showers/t-storms chance after midnight

Key overnight trend: The Small Craft Advisory for the Straits says “exercise caution until winds decrease” — and they will. By midnight, expect SE 10-15 knots across every zone. The wind shift to easterly is underway.

Tomorrow’s Outlook — Thursday, May 28

This is the day we’ve been waiting for all week.

Morning: Southeast winds 10-15 knots, easing quickly. Hawk Channel starts at 2-3 ft but subsides to 1-2 ft by afternoon. Straits follow the same trend: 2-4 ft in the AM, settling to 2-3 ft by noon.

Afternoon: Winds drop to 5-10 knots — southeast becoming east-southeast near 10 knots. Hawk Channel goes smooth to a light chop. Seas around 1-2 ft. This is game-on territory.

Evening: East winds near 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters smooth. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, but with flat water, you can dodge the cells.

The play for tomorrow:

1. Early morning (6-9 AM): Start on the reef — outgoing tide. Southeast breeze at 10-15 kts is manageable. Chum the lee side of Alligator or Conch. Yellowtail and mutton will be chewing.
2. Midday (10 AM - 2 PM): By late morning the wind drops to 5-10 knots. This is your offshore window. Mahi on weedlines at 100-300 ft. The Gulf Stream is 4 NM off Alligator — that’s a 15-minute run. Put baits out.
3. Afternoon (2-5 PM): Seas settle further. The east-southeast breeze at 5-10 knots is the best we’ve had all week. Reef edge, color change, or bridges — pick your adventure.
4. Evening (6-8 PM): Flat calm. Smooth waters. A chance of showers but the t-storm risk is slight. Perfect evening tarpon window.

Tides (Thursday, May 28 — Whale Harbor / Islamorada):

Event	Time (EDT)	Height
Low	2:14 AM	-0.22 ft
High	9:04 AM	1.86 ft
Low	3:16 PM	0.10 ft
High	9:55 PM	1.01 ft

The morning outgoing is the star. High tide at 9:04 AM starts the flush — bait off the reef flat and into the channels. The negative low at 2:14 AM means water drained hard overnight, so the incoming push at dawn should be strong.

Weekend Preview

Friday — Seas around 1 foot. Variable winds near 5 knots. Slight chance of showers. This is the pick of the week. Every zone goes flat. The Gulf Stream edge will be glass.

Saturday — South to southwest winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Still excellent — the south flow adds some warmth but doesn’t hurt the fish.

Sunday — Southwest winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and thunderstorms increases. The typical Keys summer pattern is settling in: morning bite, afternoon pop-up storms, evening flat. Plan around it.

Overall Verdict

Today: The wind told the story. Rough AM, settled PM. The SCEC/SCAC flags were warranted for smaller boats early, but the afternoon window delivered.

Thursday: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ — Best day of the week. Winds 5-10 knots by afternoon. Seas 1-2 feet. Go offshore.

Friday: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ — Even better. Glassy conditions. The high pressure shift to variable winds means you can fish anything.

Weekend: ⭐⭐⭐½ — Good but watch the radar. Summer pattern settling in means afternoon storms. Run early, be back by 3 PM, or work the bridges in the evening.

Captain’s final word: The midweek breeze is behind us. The Bermuda high is sliding south, the moisture is moving in, and by Thursday afternoon you’ll forget the wind ever blew. This is what we wait for. Tight lines.

— Captain Kit

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Sources: NOAA NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:24 PM EDT May 27, 2026; NDBC Station SMKF1 (Sombrero Key) and LONF1 (Long Key); NOAA Tides & Currents station 8724580 (Islamorada/Whale Harbor)