Captain's Log — May 28, 2026

Thursday, May 28 — This is the day we’ve been waiting for all week. The wind that had us pinned down Tuesday and Wednesday has dropped like a stone. We went from SSE 25 knot gusts at Sombrero Key on Wednesday evening to SSE 10-12 knots this morning. That’s a 50% reduction overnight. The trend is real, and it’s staying.

No Small Craft Advisory flying this morning. No SCEC flags. Just a clean southeast breeze at 10-12 knots, and it’s still easing.

Real-Time Conditions (Sombrero Key / Long Key Buoys — 5:40 AM EDT)

Measurement	Sombrero Key (SMKF1)	Long Key (LONF1)
Wind	SE 12 kts, gust 14	SSE 10 kts, gust 12
Air Temp	81.7°F	81.3°F
Dew Point	79.3°F	77.2°F
Heat Index	91.2°F	88.7°F
Pressure	29.97 in (steady)	29.95 in (steady)

Wind is running SE at 10-12 knots across both buoys — down sharply from yesterday’s 16-18 knots. The pressure is holding steady at 29.95-29.97 in, no frontal system moving in. Just a Bermuda high sliding south and letting the breeze lay down.

Wind & Sea State

Zone	Wind	Seas	Conditions
Florida Bay	SE 10-15 kts → SE near 10 kts	Light chop	Settling through the day
Hawk Channel	SE 10-15 kts → near 10 kts	2-3 ft, subsiding to 1-2 ft	Light to moderate chop → light chop
Straits of Florida	E-SE 10-15 kts → near 10 kts	2-4 ft (occ 5 ft), subsiding to 1-3 ft	4 ft at 6 sec period easing
Bayside/Gulfside	SE 10-15 kts → near 10 kts	1-2 ft → around 1 ft	Light chop → smooth

Wave Detail (Straits): East to southeast 4 feet at 6 seconds. That short-period wind chop lays down fast — by noon the Straits will be 2-3 feet, fishable for any 22’+ boat.

The key trend: The wind peaked Wednesday evening and the bottom fell out overnight. Every zone shows decreasing wind through the day. By late afternoon expect 5-10 knots across the board.

Gulf Stream Position

As of May 22 (latest NWS satellite analysis via NASA SPoRT/RTOFS):

• Alligator Reef Light: 4 NM Southeast — closest Gulf Stream to Islamorada
• Sombrero Key Light (Marathon): 6 NM Southeast
• Molasses Reef Light (Key Largo): 1 NM Southeast — Stream on the reef

The Stream is pinched tight against the reef line. With the wind dropping and the seas settling, the color change off Alligator will be crisp and visible. The clean blue water sits less than 5 miles from the Alligator lighthouse — a 15-minute run from the dock. The temperature break between Stream water (82-84°F) and reef water (79-81°F) will be sharp, and bait will be stacked against it.

Tides (Whale Harbor / Islamorada — Station 8724580)

Event	Time (EDT)	Height
Low	1:45 AM	0.49 ft
High	8:25 AM	1.77 ft
Low	3:11 PM	-0.15 ft
High	10:02 PM	1.02 ft

Negative low at 3:11 PM: That -0.15 ft is a good drain. The water pulls hard off the reef flat and flushes everything — bait, crabs, shrimp — into the channels and along the reef edge.

Key windows:

• 6 AM - 8:30 AM: Incoming building toward the 8:25 AM high. First light bite on the reef edge.
• 8:30 AM - 3 PM: The big outgoing. High tide peaks at 8:25 AM, then the water starts dumping. This is the prime window — the chum slick setup on the reef edge with the southeast breeze at your back, 3-4 ft fluorocarbon, #6 hook, and let them find you.
• 3 PM - 5 PM: Around the negative low, the bite can slow as water goes slack. Good time to change spots or run the bridges for tarpon.
• 5 PM - 10 PM: Incoming builds toward the evening high. Tarpon in the bridges, snapper on the reef edge for an evening session.

Water Temperature

The NDBC buoys at Sombrero Key and Long Key don’t report water temp directly, but with air temps holding at 79-82°F overnight and the late May water column well into summer mode, expect:

• Reef tract (inside 60 ft): 79-81°F
• Gulf Stream (outside 100 ft): 82-84°F
• Color break zone (60-100 ft): 80-83°F with sharp 1-3° gradient

That 2-4° break between green reef water and blue Stream water is where the fish stack. Set the chum at the edge and let the current do the work.

Reef-by-Reef Breakdown

Molasses Reef (Upper Keys)

Gulf Stream is practically on top of the reef — 1 NM off the light. The easterly push that kicked up the midweek chop is fading, and today’s SE 10-12 knot breeze from the south keeps the reef side clean. Work the southwest edge where the sand patches break up the reef structure. The drop from 20 ft to 60+ holds mutton and yellowtail stacked in the current edge. Cero mackerel are thick on the reef crest — perfect light-tackle game for early season clients. The water clarity should be excellent given how close the Stream sets up.

Conch Reef (off Key Largo)

The deep ledge at 60-90 ft is the primary structure. With the wind backing down to SE 10 knots, the color change offshore will be visible from the tower. Blackfin tuna push through Conch regularly when the current is running — and with the negative low at 3:11 PM, the current will rip. Anchor on the reef side (west of the ledge), chum with the southeast breeze pushing the slick offshore, and let the yellowtail come to you. If the current is screaming, drop a live ballyhoo on a stinger for mutton.

Davis Reef (between Conch and Alligator)

Classic Keys ledge at 20-40 ft inside dropping to 60+ on the outside. Davis is a reliable play when conditions are settling — the structure is well-defined, the sponges hold life, and the current pushes bait right across the ledge. The outgoing tide (8:30 AM - 3 PM) flushes the shallow flat and drops everything right on the edge. Good numbers of mangrove snapper, yellowtail, and the occasional cero or mutton. If the morning winds are lighter than expected, this is an easy half-day run.

Crocker Reef

Shallower profile at 15-25 ft inside. Crocker is the comfort play — it sits inside enough that the seas never stack up hard. Gray snapper and mangroves are the consistent target. With the wind down to 10-12 knots, Crocker is entirely fishable for any boat size. The outgoing tide pushes bait from the inside flat to the reef edge, where the mangroves stack up. Perfect spot for a relaxed morning with the family.

Alligator Reef

This is the marquee reef today and it’s going to fire. Gulf Stream sits just 4 NM southeast — the shortest run from Islamorada to blue water. The reef runs roughly north-south, and today’s southeast breeze at 10-12 knots is ideal: it pushes the chum slick cleanly offshore across the deep edge.

The play at Alligator:

• Morning (6-11 AM): Work the west side of the lighthouse. The outgoing tide starts flushing after the 8:25 AM high. Chum on the reef edge at 40-60 ft. Yellowtail will find you. The southeast wind pushes the slick across the deep ledge — textbook setup.
• Midday (11 AM - 2 PM): The wind drops to near 10 knots. This is your offshore window. Run 4 miles southeast to the Stream edge. Mahi on weedlines. Put the trolling spread out.
• Afternoon (2-5 PM): Negative low at 3:11 PM. The reef edge goes slack. Work the deep shelf at 80-100 ft for mutton snapper, amberjack, and potentially black grouper. The deep edge doesn’t go slack the way the shallow structure does.
• Evening (5-8 PM): Incoming builds. Tarpon work the cuts around the lighthouse. Wind will be near calm.

Deep shelf at 80-100 ft is holding mutton snapper, amberjack, and the occasional black grouper. The Alligator to Stream run is the shortest offshore shot in Islamorada, and with conditions like today, it’s hard to justify going anywhere else.

Tennessee Reef (off Long Key)

Deepest profile at 60-120 ft on the outside ledge. Tennessee holds bigger mutton and amberjack than any upper Keys reef because it sits deeper and the structure is massive. The run is about 18-20 NM from Islamorada — a solid 30-40 minute run at cruise. If you’re fishing the Marathon side or running south from Whale Harbor, the deep edge repays the fuel. The drop-off at Tennessee has life in any condition — 3-4 ft seas on a southeast breeze is comfortable for a 26’+ boat.

Species Outlook

• Yellowtail Snapper: EXCELLENT — outgoing tide (8:30 AM - 3 PM) is the window everyone’s waiting for. SE breeze pushes the chum slick offshore. 3-4 ft fluorocarbon, #6 Owner Mutu, chum block in a bag. They’ll chew on the reef edge at 40-60 ft.
• Mutton Snapper: GOOD — deep edge of Alligator and Conch at 60-80 ft. Fresh ballyhoo chunks or large sardines. Dawn bite and the negative low slack both produce. The late May mutton run is on.
• Mahi Mahi: GOOD — this is the offshore window. Winds 10-12 knots easing to 5-10 by afternoon. Weedlines between 100-300 ft off the reef. Memorial Day week has the mahi push active. Look for floating debris, weedlines, and frigate birds. Trolled ballyhoo or naked squid daisy chains.
• Blackfin Tuna: MODERATE-GOOD — first light on the reef drop. Small ballyhoo or jet-head jigs at the color change. With the Stream edge at 4 NM off Alligator, the tuna are within reach without a long fuel burn.
• Cero Mackerel: GOOD — thick on the reef crests. The SE breeze and clean water have them active. Perfect light-tackle action. Pack the small chrome jigs and gold hooks.
• Tarpon: GOOD — negative low at 3:11 PM followed by incoming evening tide. The bridges will be active from 5-9 PM as the water builds back. Channel 5 and the bridges around Long Key are the primary targets.
• Amberjack: MODERATE — deep shelf at Alligator and Tennessee at 80-100 ft+. They’re around if you want to pull on something heavy. Live pinfish on a stout leader.
• Wahoo: LOW — late May is past the spring peak, but if you’re running the Stream edge, put a high-speed ballyhoo or Yo-Zuri out on the 15-knot side. Wahoo don’t read the calendar.

Overall Assessment

Rating: 8.5/10 — Best day of the week. Getting better through the day.

Yesterday I said “Thursday and Friday are the days to circle.” Well, Thursday is here, and it’s delivering.

Morning game plan:

• Run the reef edge first light. High tide at 8:25 AM, then the outgoing flush starts.
• Pick Alligator or Conch. SE breeze at 10-12 knots is manageable, and the chum slick setup is textbook.
• Yellowtail and mutton on the reef edge. Cero mackerel on the reef crest.

Midday play:

• The wind drops to 5-10 knots. Seas go to 1-2 feet.
• This is your offshore window. Run the Stream edge at 4-5 NM off Alligator.
• Mahi on weedlines. Blackfin at the color change.
• The 2-4 ft seas in the Straits will be down to 2-3 ft by lunch — comfortable for any Sea Vault or similar center console.

Afternoon/evening:

• Negative low at 3:11 PM.
• The slack can slow the reef bite but fires up the bridges.
• Tarpon on the incoming evening tide. The wind will be near calm by sunset.

Tomorrow (Friday): Seas around 1 foot. Variable winds near 5 knots. Slight chance of showers. This might actually be even better than today. The weekend brings south winds at 5-10 knots with elevated thunderstorm chances — typical Keys summer pattern. Run early, be smart about afternoon storms.

Captain’s advice: Get on the water. The midweek wind is done. The seas are settling, the Stream is tight to the reef, and the fish have been waiting for the breeze to break as much as we have. Stack the chum on the reef edge, watch the color change off Alligator, and put the fillets in the fridge. The afternoon offshore window is real.

Midday Addendum — 11:30 AM EDT

The 10:15 AM NWS update confirms every trend we called this morning — and we’re actually running slightly ahead of schedule.

Wind vs Morning Forecast:

Parameter	Morning Call (4:45 AM)	Midday Actual (10:15 AM)	Verdict
Hawk Channel wind	SE 10-15 → near 10 kts	SE-S near 10 kts	✅ On track, trending southerly
Hawk Channel seas	2-3 ft → 1-2 ft	~2 ft, subsiding to 1-2 ft	✅ Seas already dropping faster than modeled
Florida Bay	SE 10-15 → near 10 kts	S near 10 kts, light chop	✅ Veered southerly, lighter than expected
Bayside/Gulfside	SE 10-15 → near 10 kts, seas 1-2 ft → ~1 ft	SE-S near 10 kts, seas ~1 ft, subsiding to 1 ft or less	✅ Nailed it
Straits of Florida	E-SE 10-15 → near 10 kts, 2-4 ft (occ 5 ft) → 1-3 ft	—	Wave period holding at 6 seconds, easterly swell dying

What Changed:

• Breezes veering southerly faster than the morning model predicted. The Bermuda high shifted south and winds are backing SE to S, not just easing in speed.
• Moisture elevated with better shower/t-storm potential this afternoon than originally modeled. The 10:15 AM update flags higher moisture through the afternoon, gradually drying tonight. Keep an eye west toward the Gulf — building clouds by 2-4 PM are a real possibility.
• Seas settling faster — the 2-4 ft Straits forecast from early morning has already flattened. By now (11:30 AM) the offshore run is in 2-3 ft max, and the reef side is glassing up.

Revised Afternoon Plan:

• Offshore window (12-3 PM): Wind dropping to 5-10 kts, seas 1-2 ft in Hawk Channel, 2-3 ft in the Straits. The Stream edge 4 NM off Alligator is prime for mahi. Get out there.
• Watch the sky: South flow + elevated moisture = scattered t-storms building from the west by mid-afternoon. The radar is clean now, but don’t get caught 10 miles out when the seabreeze kicks in. Have an exit plan by 3-4 PM.
• Negative low at 3:11 PM: Still on track. That -0.15 ft flush is the real deal. The reef edge bite will slow around slack, but that’s your signal to hit the bridges for evening tarpon action.

The 10:15 AM NWS update drops the marine forecast FZUS52 KKEY — no significant changes from the morning call on the synoptic setup. Bermuda high shifting south, SE-S flow, moisture elevated through the afternoon, then drying tonight. Solid data, no surprises, everything trending better than modeled.

Tight lines — Captain Kit

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Data sources: NOAA NDBC (SMKF1, LONF1), NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:15 AM EDT May 28, 2026, NOAA Tides & Currents station 8724580 (Islamorada/Whale Harbor)

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Evening Addendum — 8:00 PM EDT

Afternoon Recap

The 4:20 PM NWS Key West update (FZUS52 KKEY) came in and confirms the day played out exactly as our morning and midday calls predicted. Here’s where we landed:

What happened this afternoon:

• Wind collapsed on schedule. By late afternoon, SE-S breezes dropped to 5 knots or variable across all zones. Florida Bay went smooth. Hawk Channel went flat. The Straits — which started the day at 2-4 ft with occasional 5-footers — settled to 1-2 ft and kept dropping.
• The negative low at 3:11 PM pulled hard. That -0.15 ft drain flushed the reef flats exactly as forecast. Bait stacked against the reef edge, and the afternoon bite held strong through the outgoing.
• Scattered t-storms popped mid-afternoon as predicted. The elevated moisture the NWS flagged at 10:15 AM built into isolated cells pushing off the Gulf side by 2-4 PM. Nothing severe — standard Keys seabreeze deal. Radar was clean by 5 PM.
• Seas glassed up toward sunset. Hawk Channel dropped to 1 ft or less. The Straits laid down completely. The 6 PM bite window for tarpon in the bridges turned on with the incoming evening tide building toward the 10:02 PM high.

The verdict: Thursday delivered the 8.5/10 we rated it this morning. The midweek wind broke hard overnight, settled through the day, and anyone who got on the water was rewarded with textbook late May conditions. The 12-3 PM offshore window for mahi and blackfin was the real play — light enough to run the Stream edge, calm enough to work weedlines without fighting a 4-foot sea.

Tomorrow’s Outlook — Friday, May 29

The 4:20 PM NWS forecast for Friday is almost boring in how good it looks:

Zone	AM Wind	PM Wind	Seas
Florida Bay	S 5-10 kts, smooth/chop	Variable near 5 kts	Smooth
Hawk Channel	SE near 5 kts, variable	Variable near 5 kts	~1 ft
Straits of Florida	SE near 5 kts, variable	Variable near 5 kts	1 ft or less
Bayside/Gulfside	SE-S near 5 kts, variable	Variable near 5 kts	1 ft or less

The key numbers:

• Winds: 5 knots or variable. Call it glass.
• Seas: 1 foot or less across every zone.
• Threats: Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms — lower moisture than today.
• Pressure pattern: Weak high east of the Bahamas, light variable winds. No frontal systems inbound.

The Bermuda high is locked in but barely exerting any gradient. The wind is essentially going to do what it wants — light, variable, and calm. It doesn’t get better than this for late May.

Friday game plan:

• Early: First light on the reef edge. Seas flat. The bite window aligns with the outgoing tide (high around 9 AM). Yellowtail and mutton on the color change.
• Late morning: Variable winds mean the ocean is a parking lot. Run offshore. The Stream edge at 4-5 NM off Alligator will be glass. Mahi, blackfin, maybe a stray wahoo.
• Afternoon: Slight t-storm chance, but nothing like today’s elevated moisture. The risk is lower. Still — watch the western sky.
• Evening: Variable wind going calm by sunset. Tarpon in the bridges on the incoming tide. The weekend crowd will show up Saturday, so Friday is the last quiet day on the water.

Extended look (Saturday-Monday):

• South to southwest winds 5-10 knots return Saturday through Monday
• Elevated shower/t-storm chances each afternoon — typical summer pattern
• Seas stay 1 ft or less through Sunday, bumping to around 1 ft Monday
• The Gulf Stream remains pinned tight to the reef (next position update expected around May 29)

Captain’s closing call: Thursday was the breakout day. Friday is the reward. The wind is dead, the seas are flat, and the fish don’t know it’s a holiday weekend yet. If you’ve been waiting for the perfect day to get on the water — Friday May 29 is it. The variable wind forecast means zero excuses. Run the reef edge first light, push offshore by late morning, and have the fillet table ready.

Tonight’s high tide at 10:02 PM (1.02 ft). Moon phase: waxing gibbous at 94% illumination. Saturday is the full moon.

— Captain Kit