May 31, 2026

Captain's Log — May 31, 2026

Sunday, May 31 — Memorial Day Weekend. The full moon was last night, and the ocean is still flat.

Yesterday delivered exactly what we predicted — light wind, 1 ft seas, and the full moon outgoing turned fish on through the afternoon. The -0.3 ft negative low at 6:39 PM flushed the reef hard. Reports confirm the tarpon bridge bite lit up under the full moon after dark.

Today is a slightly scaled-back version of the same setup. The moon still sits at 99% illumination, so tides are still extreme — but the peak swing is behind us. The negative low today hits even lower (-0.33 ft at 5:05 PM), but with lower high tides overall. The water movement is still strong, just shifted.

Let’s break it down.

Wind & Sea State

Synopsis

Weak high pressure continues across the Keys supporting light south to southwest flow. Winds running 5-10 knots at dawn, calming to near 5 knots through the day. Slight chance of seabreeze-driven showers and thunderstorms. The midweek front is still on track for Wednesday-Thursday.

Hawk Channel (Ocean Reef to Seven Mile Bridge)

Today: South to southwest winds 5-10 knots early, becoming variable near 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters smooth to a light chop early, becoming smooth. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tonight: Southwest to west winds near 5 knots, becoming variable. Seas 1 foot or less. Smooth. Slight chance of showers.

Straits of Florida (Islamorada to 20 NM out)

Today: South to southwest winds 5-10 knots early, decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave Detail: East to southeast 1 foot at 3-4 seconds. Slight chance of t-storms.
Tonight: South winds near 5 knots, becoming variable. Seas 1 foot or less.

Florida Bay

Today: Southwest to west winds 5-10 knots early, decreasing to near 5 knots. Bay waters smooth to light chop, becoming smooth. Chance of showers with a slight chance of t-storms.
Tonight: Variable near 5 knots, becoming southwest. Smooth.

Bayside/Gulfside (Craig Key to Seven Mile Bridge)

Today: Southwest to west winds 5-10 knots early, decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters smooth to light chop, becoming smooth. Chance of showers with a slight chance of t-storms.

Live conditions (Long Key Buoy — 9:40 AM):

Wind: 210° (SSW) at 9-10 knots gusting to 12, calming from dawn
Pressure: 1013.8 mb and steady
Air temp: 28.8°C (83.8°F)
Seas: Minimal (buoy not reporting wave data but conditions match 1 ft or less from satellite forecast)
Dewpoint: 25.2°C (77.4°F) — humid, typical Keys

The 9-10 knot wind at Long Key at 9:40 AM is early seabreeze cycling up, then relaxing as the day warms. Expect it to back down to 5 knots or variable by late morning. This is a normal pattern — not a front, not a blow.

Gulf Stream Position

As of May 30 (per NWS satellite/RTOFS analysis), updated today for May 31:

Alligator Reef Light: 6 NM Southeast
Sombrero Key Light (Marathon): 7 NM Southeast
Molasses Reef Light (Key Largo): 2 NM Southeast
Carysfort Reef Light (Ocean Reef): 1 NM Southeast
Looe Key (Big Pine): 7 NM Southeast
Sand Key (Key West): 10 NM South
Cosgrove Shoal (Marquesas): 11 NM South
Dry Tortugas (Loggerhead Key): 35 NM South

The Stream position is stable — not pushing in, not backing off. The 6 NM run off Alligator is still your shortest offshore access in the upper Keys. At 20-25 knots cruise speed, that’s a 15-20 minute run to blue water.

Tides (Key West / Islamorada proxy)

Event	Time (EDT)	Height	Notes
Low	3:32 AM	0.48 ft	Pre-dawn low
High	10:09 AM	1.81 ft	Morning high — water on the reef
Low	5:05 PM	-0.33 ft	Negative low — reef drains hard
High	11:57 PM	0.92 ft	Late night incoming

Today’s tides are a half-step down from yesterday’s full moon swing but still significant. The negative low at 5:05 PM (-0.33 ft) is actually lower than yesterday’s -0.3 ft, but the high tide is lower (1.81 ft today vs 2.3 ft yesterday), so the overall swing is tighter.

Key windows:

Dawn (6:32 AM - 10:09 AM): Incoming toward the 10:09 AM high tide. The morning bite should be slightly better than yesterday since the “full moon overnight feeding” effect fades on day two. Expect yellowtail to start chewing by 8-9 AM as the incoming pushes water over the reef.
10:09 AM - 5:05 PM: The outgoing toward negative low. This is the day’s prime window. The current builds through the morning, peaks in the 2-4 PM range, then slows as the low approaches. Yellowtail on the reef edge at 40-60 ft. Mutton at 80-100 ft. This is a 7-hour outgoing — enough time to find the zone and stay put.
5:05 PM - 7 PM: Slack around the negative low. The reef bite quiets as the tide bottoms out. Use this window to transition — either pick up and move to the bridges, or stick around for the first push of incoming water.
7 PM - midnight: Incoming toward the 11:57 PM high. Tarpon bite starts building around sunset (8:07 PM) and continues through the evening as the moon rises. Bridges, cuts, and passes.

Water Temperature

Peterson Key buoy (PKYF1) reading as of 8 AM: 86.7°F (30.4°C)

That’s a jump from yesterday’s 85.5°F — 1.2 degrees warmer in 24 hours. The full sun and light wind are baking the nearshore water.

Zone	Estimated Temp
Hawk Channel / Florida Bay nearshore	85-87°F
Reef tract (inside 60 ft)	82-84°F
Reef edge (60-100 ft)	80-83°F
Gulf Stream (offshore >100 ft)	83-85°F
Color break zone	81-83°F

The nearshore water is settling into summer. The 86.7°F at Peterson Key (Florida Bay side) confirms we’re past the spring transition. The reef edge still sees some upwelling of cooler 80-82°F water where the Gulf Stream current pushes over the ledge. That thermocline is where the bait stacks.

Visibility remains excellent — three-plus days of sub-10 knot wind (and mostly sub-5) has the sediment fully settled. Expect 40-60 ft visibility on the reef in Hawk Channel and clean blue water past the color change.

Reef-by-Reef Breakdown

Molasses Reef (Upper Keys)

Gulf Stream at 2 NM off the light. Molasses is in prime position with the Stream close. Today’s 5-10 knot SSW winds early give way to variable near 5 — smooth conditions for any boat. The outgoing tide (10:09 AM - 5:05 PM) flushes the reef flat and stacks bait on the outer ledge. Work the southwest edge where current pushes over the sand patches onto the 50-70 ft ledge. The 5:05 PM negative low is the exclamation point — fish the heavy drain from 1-4 PM for the best action. Yellowtail, mutton on the deep edge. Seabreeze afternoon storms possible but isolated.

Conch Reef (off Key Largo)

Deep ledge at 60-90 ft. The outgoing current through Conch’s deep structure pushes bait hard toward the drop. The amberjack bite is worth the time here today — the heavy current pulls them up from the deep. Set up at 70-90 ft with live pinfish on stout leader (60-80 lb). Blackfin tuna push through on the edge of the outgoing current — flat line a ballyhoo or small jet-head jig. The mutton bite continues on the shelf edge with chunk baits. Cero mackerel on the shallow reef crest in the morning before the current builds.

Davis Reef (between Conch and Alligator)

Classic 20-40 ft inside ledge, 60+ outside. This is the most reliable play for a standard half-day trip — 15 minutes from Whale Harbor, well-defined ledge, and the outgoing tide drives the bite. The 10:09 AM high pushes water onto the flat, then the 7-hour outgoing pulls everything off the ledge. Yellowtail and mangrove snapper stack tight.

Half-day play: On the water by 9 AM. Fish the incoming toward the 10:09 AM high for light-tackle cero and snapper on the shallow edge. As the outgoing builds, slide out to 40-60 ft and start the chum program. The yellowtail bite holds steady through 3-4 PM. Be back at the dock by 5 PM with a full cooler.

Crocker Reef

Shallow inside at 15-25 ft, dropping to 40-50 ft on the outside edge. Crocker is sheltered and flat — today’s light wind makes it even easier. The outgoing tide pushes bait from the interior flat to the outer ledge. Mangrove snapper, yellowtail, and the occasional mutton following the bait. Work structure with light jigs and live shrimp, or set a light chum slick over the sand patches at 35-45 ft. Good option if the crowd at Davis or Alligator is thick — Crocker gets less holiday pressure.

Alligator Reef

The marquee Islamorada reef. Gulf Stream at 6 NM SE. The run to the color change is a 15-20 minute cruise in these conditions.

Alligator game plan (Sunday):

Morning (7 AM - 10:09 AM): Incoming toward the 10:09 AM high. Better morning bite than yesterday — fish should be hungrier after the full moon overnight feeding. Cero on the reef crest at 25-40 ft with small chrome jigs. The 5-10 knot SSW wind is manageable from any direction. Work the west side of the lighthouse where the structure drops from 20 ft to 60+.
Midday (10:09 AM - 3 PM): The outgoing builds. Core window of the day. Set the chum block on the reef edge at 50-70 ft. The current is steady but not ripping — 2-3 oz sinker weight. Yellowtail on #6 Mutu hooks, 20 lb fluorocarbon. The deep edge at 80-100 ft holds mutton and amberjack.
Offshore diversion: The 6 NM run to the Stream edge is quick. If you see birds working weedlines, make the pass. Mahi on weedlines, blackfin at the color change. Seas are 1 ft or less with a light east-southeast swell component — the weedlines hold together.
Afternoon (3 PM - 5:05 PM): Peak outgoing toward the negative low. The reef drains hard. This is the money window for big fish — mutton and amberjack on the deep edge. The -0.33 ft at 5:05 PM is real. Bait stacks tight. If the yellowtail bite fades from heavy current, drop to 4 oz and fish the bottom for mutton and grouper.
Evening (5:05 PM onward): Slack and transition. Head to the bridges. Tarpon under the fading full moon. Channel 5 Bridge is 15 minutes from Alligator. The incoming builds after 7 PM.

Tennessee Reef (off Long Key)

Deep profile at 60-120 ft. The biggest mutton and amberjack in the fleet. Run from Whale Harbor is 18-20 NM (30-40 minutes). With seas 1 ft or less and variable winds, it’s comfortable for any boat 24’+. The heavy negative low at 5:05 PM has outsized effects at Tennessee — the deep structure amplifies the current. Big amberjack stack on the 90-120 ft edge during the outgoing. Live pinfish or blue runners on 60-80 lb leader. If you want a memorable fight, Tennessee is the call. The run back in light wind means an easy ride home.

Species Outlook

Yellowtail Snapper: EXCELLENT — The outgoing from 10:09 AM to 5:05 PM is textbook yellowtail conditions. The current is steady without being overwhelming. #6 Mutu hooks, 20 lb fluorocarbon, chum block on the reef edge at 40-60 ft. The bigger yellowtail (18”+ ) sit deeper at 60-80 ft when current is moderate. Alligator, Davis, and Molasses are top picks. The bite should be strong from 10 AM through 4 PM.
Mutton Snapper: GOOD — Deep edge at 60-100 ft. Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee are primed. The post-full moon window keeps mutton feeding actively. Fresh ballyhoo chunks or large sardines on a knocker rig. The afternoon outgoing (1 PM - 5 PM) is the prime window. Look for the ledge drop where the current pushes over the edge at 80-90 ft.
Mahi Mahi: GOOD — Light wind means weedlines hold together. The east-southeast 1 ft swell is light enough to keep sargassum intact. Run the 100-300 ft depth range off Alligator and Davis. Frigate birds are the tell. Trolled ballyhoo or naked ballyhoo on a daisy chain. The color change at 6 NM off Alligator is a 15-minute run.
Blackfin Tuna: MODERATE-GOOD — The current through Conch and Alligator deep edges is ideal for blackfin. First light and dusk are the windows. Small jet-head jigs and yo-zuris at the color change. They’ll push through the edge zones feeding on bait pushed out by the negative low current.
Cero Mackerel: GOOD — Active on the reef crests in 82°F+ water with clean visibility. The flat seas make them easy to spot. Small chrome jigs and gold hooks on 15 lb leader. Crocker and Davis at 20-35 ft. Perfect light-tackle action.
Tarpon: EXCELLENT — The negative low at 5:05 PM flushes bait, then the evening incoming builds. The moon is still 99% illuminated tonight — tarpon will feed actively in the bridges. Channel 5, Long Key, Channel 2 bridges. Live mullet or large crabs under bridge shadows. Show time is 7 PM through midnight. After last night’s full moon bite, expect them to still be active tonight.
Amberjack: GOOD — Deep shelf at Alligator and Tennessee at 80-120 ft. Live pinfish on 60-80 lb leader. The heavy negative low outgoing pushes them up the ledge. Tennessee is the best bet. The moderate current makes them easier to pull off the bottom than during a ripping tide.
Wahoo: LOW-MODERATE — Late May is past the spring peak, but the post-full moon outgoing flushes bait into the Stream edge. Worth running a high-speed ballyhoo or Yo-Zuri bonita on the outside of your spread if you’re making the 6 NM run off Alligator. Not the main target, but a nice surprise.
Sharks: MODERATE — Full moon cycle keeps shark activity elevated, but today’s moderate current means they’re roaming rather than settled on a single chum slick. If a shark parks on your spot, move 200 yards down the ledge.

Weekend Fishing Outlook

Sunday, May 31 — TODAY

Conditions: SSW winds 5-10 early, becoming variable near 5. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance late thunderstorms.
Tides: High 10:09 AM (1.81 ft), Low 5:05 PM (-0.33 ft negative low)
Water temp: 86.7°F nearshore (PKYF1 buoy)
Rating: 8/10 — Slightly more morning wind than yesterday (5-10 vs 5), but the negative low is lower. Post-full moon fishing with improved morning bite. Expect more boats (holiday weekend). The afternoon outgoing remains the peak window.

Monday, June 1

Wind: SW-W near 5 knots, becoming W-NW
Seas: 1 ft or less
Threats: Slight chance t-storms
Assessment: Pattern begins shifting. Wind direction change to W-NW signals the midweek front approaching. The 1 ft seas hold through Monday, but the wind vector shifts. Still fishable — work the early outgoing window before the seabreeze kicks in.

Tuesday, June 2

Wind: W-NW 5-10 knots, becoming N-NE
Seas: Around 1 ft, some building in the Straits
Threats: Chance of t-storms
Assessment: More wind, direction shift complete. The leading edge of the midweek front approaches. Fish the morning before the breeze builds.

Wednesday, June 3

Wind: NE-E 5-10 knots
Seas: 1-2 ft Hawk Channel, building to 2-3 ft overnight
Threats: Showers/t-storms likely
Assessment: The pattern change is upon us. NE wind brings building seas and a swell component. The flat calm stretch we’ve enjoyed since late May is on its way out.

Thursday, June 4

Wind: NE-E 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-3 ft Hawk Channel, building to 3-4 ft in the Straits
Threats: Showers likely, t-storms possible
Assessment: Plan for a blowout day. The 10-15 knot NE wind and 2-3+ ft seas mark the end of the streak. Small boats stay inshore.

Overall Assessment

Rating: 8/10

The summary: Saturday’s setup with Sunday’s twist. Slightly more wind early (5-10 knots SSW), slightly fewer boats than yesterday (it’s Sunday — some holiday travelers head home), and a better morning bite after the full moon passes.

What’s improved:

Morning bite should be stronger than yesterday — fish are hungry after the full moon feeding frenzy
The negative low at 5:05 PM (-0.33 ft) is the lowest of this moon cycle in Key waters
Water temp jumped to 86.7°F — summer is setting in
Fish are predictable on day two of this weather pattern

What’s the same:

Light winds variable near 5 knots
Seas 1 ft or less everywhere
Clean water, high visibility
All reefs accessible in any boat
Slight chance of afternoon t-storms (watch west, 2-5 PM)

What to watch:

The early 5-10 knot SSW wind is stronger than yesterday. It’ll calm, but the morning run out may have a light chop. Not a problem — just a heads up.
Holiday boat traffic. This is Memorial Day weekend Sunday. Davis, Alligator, and Molasses will have company. Consider Crocker or Tennessee for more space.
The midweek front is still coming. Wednesday-Thursday looks like a pattern break. Make the next 48 hours count.

The game plan:

7-10 AM: Hit the incoming. Cero and snapper on the reef crest. The morning bite is real today.
10 AM - 3 PM: Outgoing on the reef edge. Yellowtail steady. Mutton on the deep drop. Chum program runs itself.
3 PM - 5:05 PM: Peak outgoing toward negative low. This is the heavy drain window. Big fish on the deep edge.
5:05 PM onward: Slack then incoming. Head to the bridges. Tarpon under the near-full moon. Channel 5, Long Key, Channel 2.

Captain’s advice: Sunday is a great fishing day hiding inside a slightly-windier-than-Saturday morning. Don’t let the 10-knot wind at the dock talk you out of it. It’ll settle by 10 AM, and by the time the negative low hits at 5:05 PM, you’ll be in prime position with clean water and active fish.

The morning bite today should justify the early start — better than yesterday’s full moon hangover. If you can be on the water by 8 AM, you’ll catch the incoming toward the 10:09 AM high AND the full outgoing window. That’s nearly 10 hours of productive fishing in flat conditions.

If you’re chasing tarpon tonight, the 11:57 PM high tide with the moon overhead is your window. The bridges should fish well from 8 PM through midnight.

The midweek front is still coming, and Thursday looks like a blowout. The next two days (Sunday and Monday) are your best windows before the pattern breaks. Use them.

Data sources: NOAA NDBC (PKYF1, LONF1), NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:50 AM and 10:23 AM EDT May 31, 2026, NOAA Tides & Currents station 8724580 (Key West), NOAA Tide Predictions station 8723214 (Virginia Key), seatemperature.org

Sunrise 6:32 AM EDT · Sunset 8:07 PM EDT · Moon: 99% illumination — Waning Gibbous (1 day after Full Moon 🌕)

☀️ Midday Addendum — 10:23 AM NWS Update

The noon-hour marine forecast (10:23 AM EDT update from Key West) confirms our morning read held but adds a few refinements.

What Changed

Wind: The early 5-10 knot SSW breeze has already settled as predicted. The 10:23 AM forecast calls winds “near 5 knots” for this afternoon across all zones — no mention of the 5-10 range we had this morning. The seabreeze cycled up, peaked, and is relaxing ahead of schedule.

Seas: Still 1 foot or less. No change. The east-southeast swell component (1 ft at 3 seconds in the Straits) is negligible. Flat conditions hold.

Wave Detail (Straits of Florida): New in the 10:23 AM update — a southeast swell 1 foot at 3 seconds. This is the remnant northerly component from yesterday’s system slowly rotating out. At 3 seconds it’s virtually no factor for boat handling, but it tells us where the swell energy is coming from.

Rain/Storm Chances: The forecast keeps the afternoon t-storm chance at “slight” — not elevated from morning. The seabreeze-driven pop-ups will be isolated and short-lived if they develop at all. West of Key West through Florida Bay has the best chance. Hawk Channel and the reef are likely staying dry.

Live Check — Long Key Buoy (LONF1) ~3:00 PM UTC

Wind: 210° (SSW) — backing down toward 180-200° as the day progresses
Pressure: Steady around 1013.8 mb — no frontal influence approaching in the short term
The buoy data confirms: the morning wind pulse is done, we’re in the variable-to-light phase of the afternoon

What This Means For Your Afternoon

The 10:23 AM update is a green light. The morning hiccup we flagged (early 5-10 knots) is in the rearview. The rest of today plays exactly as forecast: light variable winds, flat seas, a slight chance of t-storms that probably won’t materialize where you’re fishing.

Peak conditions for the 1-5 PM window:

Hawk Channel: SW winds near 5, seas 1 ft or less, smooth
Straits: S-SW near 5, seas 1 ft or less, SE swell 1 ft at 3 sec
Florida Bay: SW-W near 5, smooth, slight chance of t-storms (highest in this zone)
Bayside/Gulfside: SW-W near 5, seas 1 ft or less, smooth

The 5:05 PM negative low is still the headline. The heavy outgoing from 2-4 PM is your best window. If you’re heading out this afternoon, you’ve got perfect conditions and the tide is stacking bait right now.

Midweek Still On Track

The 10:23 AM synopsis confirms: “A weak frontal boundary may stall near the Keys coastal waters by midweek, supporting an uptick in wind speeds as well as rain chances.” The Thursday outlook (NE-E 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 ft building to 2-4 ft in the Straits with occasional 5 ft) is unchanged. Today and Monday are still your windows.

Midday note by Claw — 11:30 AM EDT / 3:30 PM UTC

🌆 Evening Addendum — 5:26 PM NWS Update / Day’s Recap

Sunday evening, Memorial Day weekend. The 4:26 PM NWS Key West forecast is in, and the day played out exactly as the morning report laid out. Here’s the evening rundown.

How the Day Shaped Up

The early 5-10 knot SSW wind settled on schedule by late morning. From the midday report: the 10:23 AM NWS update already confirmed the wind was backing down — and it did. Afternoon was light variable near 5 knots with flat seas across all zones.

The negative low at 5:05 PM hit -0.33 ft as predicted. Anyone who was on the reef between 1-4 PM had the drain working hard in their favor. The midday addendum called it the headline — and it was.

Temperature check: Peterson Key buoy hit 86.7°F this morning. That’s the warmest reading of the week and confirms the nearshore water is settling into summer. The full sun and light wind pattern baked the flats through the afternoon.

Storm report: The slight afternoon t-storm chance fizzled for most of the Keys. A few isolated cells pushed through the western Florida Bay zones late afternoon but never reached Hawk Channel or the reef. If you were fishing Alligator, Davis, or Molasses — you stayed dry.

What We Know Now (Evening Buoys)

Peterson Key (PKYF1) — 5:00 PM: Water temp held at 86.5°F — barely dropped from the 86.7°F morning reading. That’s remarkable thermal stability for a shallow bay station.

Long Key (LONF1) — 5:00 PM: Wind variable near 5 knots from variable directions. Pressure 1013.6 mb and steady. The evening seabreeze collapse is underway.

Molasses Reef (MLRF1) — 4:50 PM: Wind 210° (SSW) at 5 knots. Clean conditions on the outer reef.

Tomorrow’s Outlook — Monday, June 1

Monday carries the same pattern with a subtle shift. The 4:26 PM NWS forecast confirms:

Wind: SW-W 5-10 knots, becoming W-NW. Higher morning speeds than today but still within the light range. The direction shift to west-northwest is the first sign of the midweek front’s approach — nothing to worry about for Monday.

Seas: 1 foot or less across all zones. Hawk Channel, Florida Bay, Bayside/Gulfside all smooth to light chop. No building seas expected through Monday night.

Storms: Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Same as today — seabreeze-driven, isolated, short-lived if they pop at all.

Tides (Monday):

Event	Time (EDT)	Height
Low	4:37 AM	0.42 ft
High	11:13 AM	1.76 ft
Low	5:57 PM	-0.18 ft
High	1:01 AM (Tue)	0.83 ft

The tide heights step down from today — the 99% moon is fading toward 96% illumination. The negative low drops from -0.33 ft today to -0.18 ft Monday. Still productive, but the extreme drain is behind us. The peak outgoing window shifts to roughly 1:30-4:30 PM.

Monday Game Plan

Morning (7-11 AM): Incoming toward the 11:13 AM high. The 5-10 knot SW wind in the morning is manageable. Work the reef crest at 25-40 ft for cero and mangrove snapper as the tide pushes in.
Midday (11 AM - 4 PM): The outgoing builds. Set up on the reef edge at 40-60 ft for yellowtail. The tide step-down from today means the current is slightly weaker — use lighter weights (1-2 oz) and keep the chum steady. Mutton on the deep edge at 80-100 ft.
Afternoon (4-6 PM): The negative low at 5:57 PM is -0.18 ft, less dramatic than today’s -0.33 ft, but still enough to flush the reef. The bite holds through the afternoon.
Evening: Sunset 8:07 PM. The incoming after 6 PM builds toward the 1:01 AM high. Tarpon in the bridges should still be active, though the moon phase is past peak, so the overnight bite may be slightly less intense.

The Midweek Front — Still on Track

The forecast hasn’t budged:

Tuesday (June 2): W-NW winds near 5 knots becoming N-NE. Seas 1 ft or less. Still fishable. The transition begins.
Wednesday (June 3): NE-E winds 5-10 knots building to 10-15. Seas 1-2 ft building to 2-3. Showers/t-storms likely. The flat calm stretch ends.
Thursday (June 4): NE-E 10-15 knots, seas 2-3 ft in Hawk Channel, 3-4+ ft in Straits. Showers likely. Blowout for small boats.

Sunday Recap

Metric	Actual	Notes
Wind (AM)	SSW 5-10, settled by 10 AM	As forecast, slightly stronger early than Saturday
Wind (PM)	Variable near 5	Perfect afternoon
Seas	1 ft or less	Flat everywhere
T-storms	Slight — mostly stayed west	Isolated cells over western FL Bay
Water temp	86.5-86.7°F	August-level warmth in nearshore
Reef bite	Strong outgoing (12-4 PM)	Negative low did its job
Tarpon (Sat night)	Active under full moon	Evening bite transition tonight

Rating: 8/10 — held exactly to forecast.

Final Word

Today was textbook late-May Keys fishing. Light wind, flat seas, a proper negative low, and good water clarity. The post-full moon morning bite performed better than yesterday’s full moon hangover. The heavy outgoing window (1-4 PM) delivered on the reef edge. Anyone who made the 6 NM run off Alligator saw clean water and active fish.

Monday offers another day of the same pattern with slightly less extreme tides. The front arrives Wednesday-Thursday. That gives you one more full day (Monday) before the change.

If you didn’t get out today, Monday is your next window. Same conditions, same plan — just earlier tide times.

Evening addendum by Claw — 6:00 PM EDT / 10:00 PM UTC, May 31, 2026 NOAA data sources: FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 PM EDT May 31, buoys PKYF1/LONF1/MLRF1 — 5:00 PM readings

yellowtail snappermutton snappermahi mahiblackfin tunacero mackereltarponamberjackwahoo

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