October 11, 2026
Captain's log, October 11, 2026, subsiding seas and shifting winds
Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.
Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 11, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.
Winds are shifting from southeast to east and easing up. Seas are subsiding inside the channel and outside the reef. The main call is to watch the afternoon lull in the wind and the slight chance of showers that might pop up later. No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.
Wind and seas today
NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:27 AM EDT on October 11. In Hawk Channel, southeast winds are near 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to near 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.
Outside the reef in the Straits, southeast winds are near 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shows east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds and west 2 feet at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.
Florida Bay has southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.
NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure. Leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.
From Molasses to Tennessee
Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.
| Reef area | Morning planning note |
|---|---|
| Molasses | The NDBC station has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading. |
| Conch | No specific data available. Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
| Davis | No specific data available. Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
| Crocker | No specific data available. Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
| Alligator | Gulf Stream edge was 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water. |
| Tennessee | No specific data available. Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.
Today’s tides
The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 11, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.
| Event | Time, EDT | Height, feet MLLW |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 06:43 | 0.11 |
| High | 12:02 | 0.722 |
| Low | 18:35 | 0.318 |
| High | 23:33 | 0.878 |
The first low is predicted at 6:43 AM. The next predicted high is at 12:02 PM. This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.
Water temperature
NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 86.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 11. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.
Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.
Species outlook
No species or catch data is available. Nothing in the forecast supports a species call.
Tonight and tomorrow
Tonight, Hawk Channel has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots and seas around 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. Straits winds are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds and west 1 foot at 7 seconds. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds near 10 knots and a light chop. All zones have a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday brings northeast winds 10 to 15 knots in the Straits, with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Hawk Channel winds decrease to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon, with seas subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Florida Bay winds increase to near 10 knots in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains.
A front associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias is expected sometime Monday night or Tuesday. Northeast winds will increase to near 15 knots in the Straits and near 10 knots, increasing to near 15 knots in the Hawk Channel. Straits seas will build to 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Hawk Channel seas will build to 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.
Sources
Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.
- NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 11, 2026, at 4:27 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
- NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 11, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
- NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 11 at 5:54 AM EDT.
- NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.
Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT
Prepared at 11:30 AM EDT using the NOAA bulletin issued at 10:27 AM EDT. Hawk Channel and Straits winds are now 10 to 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to near 10, versus near 15 this morning. Hawk Channel seas remain 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet. Florida Bay winds are near 10 knots, becoming east to southeast and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop, versus a light to moderate chop in the morning forecast.
This afternoon, Hawk Channel winds shift east and ease to near 10 knots. Seas subside to around 2 feet. Nearshore chop lightens to light. Straits winds also ease to near 10 knots. Seas drop to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shows east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds and west 2 feet at 9 seconds. Florida Bay winds drop to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth out to a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains across all zones.
For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, use the regional forecast. No reef-specific visibility or current readings are available. The Gulf Stream edge is 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light and 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 9, 2026.
Tonight, Hawk Channel has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots and seas around 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. Straits winds are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds and west 1 foot at 7 seconds. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds near 10 knots and a light chop. All zones have a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday brings northeast winds 10 to 15 knots in the Straits, with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Hawk Channel winds decrease to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon, with seas subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Florida Bay winds increase to near 10 knots in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains.
There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings. The morning tide table and water temperature were not updated.
Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 1027 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026, checked 11:30 AM EDT. Zones GMZ031, GMZ042-044, GMZ052-055, GMZ072-075.
Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.
Evening update, October 11, 2026
Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 11, 2026. This update uses the NOAA Key West coastal waters bulletin issued at 4:22 PM EDT on Sunday, October 11.
Afternoon recap
No verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations are available. The 4:22 PM bulletin calls for northeast to east winds across all zones, a shift from the southeast winds noted in the morning. A weak frontal boundary is set up across central Florida between the weakening Atlantic Ridge and a weak high pressure system over the Gulf. This front is primed to pass across the Keys waters early in the week. The morning report referenced a front associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias. The current bulletin describes a weak frontal boundary instead, with a strong cold front potentially developing late in the week for passage over next weekend.
Tonight’s ride
NOAA forecasts northeast to east winds near 10 knots in the Hawk Channel with seas around 2 feet. Nearshore waters will see a light chop. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. In the Straits, northeast to east winds are 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shows northeast to east swell at 3 feet with a 5 second period and west swell at 1 foot with a 7 second period. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms exists here too. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast.
Monday, October 12 outlook
Monday brings northeast winds near 10 knots in the Hawk Channel. Seas are around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters will be a light chop with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. In the Straits, northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shows northeast to east swell at 3 feet with a 5 second period and west to northwest swell at 1 foot with a 6 second period. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Monday night brings northeast winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the Hawk Channel. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except building to 2 to 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters become a light to moderate chop with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. In the Straits, northeast winds remain 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay sees northeast winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters become a light to moderate chop with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday brings northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots in the Hawk Channel. Seas build to around 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters become a moderate chop with a slight chance of showers. Straits winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
For planning from Molasses to Tennessee, use the regional forecasts. No specific reef visibility or current data is available. The Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light and 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef and the Hawk Channel forecast for inside the reef. There is no species outlook. No bite data is available.
Evening forecast source
NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 4:22 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026.
Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.
Conditions data provided by FishIntel.ai, fishing intelligence for the Florida Keys and beyond.