Captain's log, October 12, 2026, northeast breeze and building chop

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

The Atlantic Ridge is weakening and moving east, while a weak high sits over the Gulf. A weak frontal boundary is set up across central Florida, primed to pass through the Keys early in the week. The day looks manageable with a northeast to east breeze that increases tonight. No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:25 AM EDT on October 12. In Hawk Channel, northeast winds are near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Outside the reef in the Straits, northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast to east 3 feet at 4 seconds and west to northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Florida Bay has northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure. Leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading.
Conch	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Davis	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Crocker	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 12, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	07:25	0.098
High	12:41	0.668
Low	19:05	0.33

The first low is predicted at 7:25 AM. The next predicted high is at 12:41 PM. This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 87.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 12. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No species or catch data is available. Nothing in the forecast supports a species call.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight, Hawk Channel has northeast winds 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Straits winds are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is northeast to east 2 feet at 4 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with bay waters becoming a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Tuesday brings northeast winds 10 to 15 knots in the Straits, increasing to near 15 knots, with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Hawk Channel winds are 10 to 15 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay winds are 10 to 15 knots, with bay waters a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

Tuesday night continues the pattern. Straits winds are northeast to east near 15 knots with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Hawk Channel winds are northeast to east near 15 knots with seas around 3 feet. A chance of showers is in the forecast. Florida Bay winds are northeast 10 to 15 knots with bay waters a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

A weak frontal boundary is set up across central Florida and is primed to pass across the Keys waters sometime early in the week. Late in the week, there is a chance a strong cold front could develop and move towards the Florida Keys, with frontal passage possible over next weekend.

Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 12, 2026, at 4:25 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 12, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 12 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

Prepared at 11:30 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, using the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 10:20 AM EDT. The main change versus the morning report is in the Straits afternoon seas. The morning post, citing a 4:25 AM issuance, listed seas of 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The new 10:20 AM bulletin lowers that to 2 to 3 feet. Wind directions and Hawk Channel seas remain consistent with the earlier forecast.

This afternoon, the Hawk Channel sees northeast winds near 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. In the Straits, northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shows northeast to east 3 feet at 4 seconds and west to northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds of 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

For reef planning from Molasses to Tennessee, use the Hawk Channel numbers inside and the Straits data for exposed water. The Gulf Stream edge remains 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light and 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. These are regional planning notes only.

Tonight, Hawk Channel winds rise to 10 to 15 knots with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore chop becomes light to moderate. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Straits winds are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is northeast to east 2 feet at 4 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay winds start near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters become a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Tuesday brings northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots in the Straits, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Hawk Channel winds are 10 to 15 knots with seas of 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay winds are 10 to 15 knots with bay waters a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast. The diffuse front is forecast to slowly pass across the Keys waters by tomorrow and stall near the Straits of Florida. A strong cold front could develop late in the week, but NOAA currently gives low chances that it reaches the Keys waters.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings to report. Tide and water temperature were not rechecked in this update, so refer to the morning post for those figures.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 12, 2026, at 10:20 AM EDT, checked at 11:30 AM EDT. Zones GMZ031, GMZ042 through GMZ044, GMZ052 through GMZ055, and GMZ072 through GMZ075.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 12, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 12, 2026. This section relies on the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 4:04 PM EDT today. The morning report and the midday update above remain in place. This is the latest look at what is coming tonight and tomorrow.

Afternoon recap

No verified catches or on-the-water readings were available for this update. The forecast numbers shifted compared to the morning and midday posts. The 4:04 PM bulletin lowers the Hawk Channel tonight seas to 1 to 2 feet, down from the 2 to 3 feet listed in the earlier posts. The Straits forecast for tonight is also lower than the morning outlook. It lists seas at 2 to 3 feet, whereas the morning report cited 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The Tuesday Straits outlook is now 2 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. This is lower than the midday update’s prediction of 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The synopsis notes a weak frontal boundary extending across south Florida, forecast to slowly pass across the Keys waters by Tuesday. It will promote gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes. The front is expected to stall near the Straits of Florida.

Tonight’s ride

In the Hawk Channel, winds are northeast at 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

In the Straits, winds are northeast at 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail shows northeast to east waves at 2 feet with a 4 second period, plus northwest waves at 1 foot with a 5 second period. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Florida Bay has northeast winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop late. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Tuesday, October 13 outlook

The front is forecast to slowly pass across the Keys waters by Tuesday. In the Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

The Straits see northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The wave detail shows north waves at 3 feet with a 5 second period. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Florida Bay has northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop.

For planning from Molasses to Tennessee, use the Hawk Channel data for protected water and the Straits data for exposed water. The Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light and 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. The front stalling near the Straits promotes gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes.

There is no species outlook to offer. No bite data is available.

Evening forecast source

This update uses the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 4:04 PM EDT on October 12, 2026. You can view the full bulletin here: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast. Zones GMZ031, GMZ042 through GMZ044, GMZ052 through GMZ055, and GMZ072 through GMZ075. Tide and water temperature were not rechecked in this update, so refer to the morning post for those figures.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.