Captain's log, October 13, 2026, northeast breeze and building chop

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

The Atlantic Ridge continues to weaken and retreat east, while high pressure sits over the Southeast U.S. and the northern Gulf. A weak cold front has stalled across the northern SE Gulf waters of the Keys and is not expected to pass through today, though it keeps the area prone to scattered showers. The day looks manageable with a northeast to east breeze that builds slightly. No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:29 AM EDT on October 13. In Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Outside the reef in the Straits, northeast to east winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 3 feet at 4 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Florida Bay has northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast to east. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure. Leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading.
Conch	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Davis	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Crocker	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 13, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
High	00:04	0.873
Low	08:06	0.104
High	13:20	0.614
Low	19:34	0.346

The first low is predicted at 8:06 AM. The next predicted high is at 1:20 PM. This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 87.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 13. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No species or catch data is available. Nothing in the forecast supports a species call.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight, Hawk Channel has northeast to east winds near 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Straits winds are northeast to east near 15 knots with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is northeast to east 4 feet at 5 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds near 15 knots, with bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Wednesday brings northeast to east winds near 15 knots in the Straits, with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Hawk Channel winds are northeast to east near 15 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay winds are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots, with bay waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Wednesday night continues the pattern. Straits winds are east near 15 knots with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Hawk Channel winds are east near 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay winds are northeast to east near 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

A weak cold front has stalled across the northern SE Gulf waters of the Keys and is not expected to pass through today. Late in the week, there is a chance a strong cold front could develop and move towards the Florida Keys, though current indications show low chances of frontal passage.

Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 13, 2026, at 4:29 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 13, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 13 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

This update was prepared at 11:30 AM EDT using the NOAA Key West coastal waters bulletin issued at 10:19 AM EDT. Several changes stand out from the morning forecast. Straits winds shifted from northeast to east 10 to 15 knots increasing to near 15 knots, to just northeast near 15 knots. Hawk Channel nearshore chop dropped from becoming a moderate chop to staying a light to moderate chop. The Straits wave detail changed from northeast 3 feet at 4 seconds plus northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds to north 3 feet at 5 seconds. The synopsis now places the weak cold front stalling along and parallel or just south of the Florida Keys, rather than across the northern SE Gulf waters.

This afternoon

In the Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Outside the reef, the Straits of Florida have northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is north 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay has northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Reef areas

For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. The Gulf Stream edge as of October 9, 2026, was 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light and 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light. These are static references from October 9.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight, Hawk Channel has northeast to east winds near 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. The Straits see northeast to east winds near 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is northeast to east 4 feet at 5 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds near 15 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Wednesday brings northeast to east winds near 15 knots in the Straits. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Hawk Channel winds are northeast to east near 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay winds are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Wednesday night continues the pattern. Straits winds are east near 15 knots with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Hawk Channel winds are east near 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay winds are northeast to east near 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

The synopsis notes a weak cold front is stalling along and parallel or just south of the Florida Keys. Late in the week, a strong cold front could develop and move towards the Florida Keys by the weekend. There are low chances that the front will make it to the Florida Keys waters.

There are no new verified catches, on-the-water readings, visibility, or current readings. No new tide or water temperature data was provided in this update and the morning figures were not rechecked.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 1019 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026, checked at 11:30 AM EDT.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 13, 2026

This evening report was prepared at 5:00 PM EDT. It relies on the NOAA Key West coastal waters bulletin issued at 4:17 PM EDT today. The morning and midday reports above remain in place and are not altered by this addition.

Afternoon recap

No verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations were submitted for this log. The primary change from the morning forecast involves the synopsis. The weak cold front is now described as stalling along and parallel or just south of the Florida Keys. This is a shift from earlier notes placing it across the northern SE Gulf waters. The Atlantic ridge continues to weaken and retreat east. High pressure remains centered over the Southeast U.S. and the northern Gulf. This setup promotes gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible as the front sits in the area. A strong cold front could develop late in the week. Current indications show low chances of it reaching Florida Keys waters.

Tonight’s ride

The Straits of Florida will see northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 knots. Seas are expected to be 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail indicates northeast to east waves at 4 feet with a 5 second period. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

In the Hawk Channel, winds are northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots. Seas hold at 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters will have a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Florida Bay faces northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters will be a light to moderate chop. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday, October 14

For Wednesday, the Straits will have northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 knots. Seas are forecast to be 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast to east waves at 3 feet with a 5 second period. Expect a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Hawk Channel winds will be northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots. Seas remain 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters will be a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Florida Bay will see northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters will be a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

For planning from Molasses to Tennessee, use the regional Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts. The Gulf Stream edge data from October 9, 2026, places the stream 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light and 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light. These are static references. No new visibility or current readings are available for these reef areas.

There is no species outlook for tomorrow. No catch data supports a specific call. Stick to general planning based on the wind and sea state.

Evening forecast source

The data for this update comes from the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast.

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 417 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.