Captain's log, October 14, 2026, northeast breeze and building chop

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

High pressure sits over the Southeast U.S. and extends east into the western North Atlantic. A weak front that passed through yesterday remains stalled across the Straits of Florida. This setup promotes gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes over the next several days. Seas outside the reef are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:29 AM EDT on October 14. In Hawk Channel, northeast to east winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Outside the reef in the Straits, northeast to east winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Florida Bay has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure. Leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading.
Conch	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Davis	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Crocker	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 14, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
High	00:38	0.854
Low	08:50	0.126
High	13:59	0.563
Low	20:02	0.366

The first low is predicted at 8:50 AM. The next predicted high is at 1:59 PM. This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 85.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 14. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No species or catch data is available. Nothing in the forecast supports a species call.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight, Hawk Channel has east winds near 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop. Straits winds are east 15 to 20 knots, becoming east to southeast. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is northeast to east 4 feet at 5 seconds. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds near 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast for all zones.

Thursday brings east to southeast winds near 15 knots in the Straits, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east 4 feet at 5 seconds. Hawk Channel winds are east 10 to 15 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. Florida Bay winds are east 10 to 15 knots, with bay waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast for all zones.

Thursday night continues the pattern. Straits winds are east near 15 knots, becoming east to southeast. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Hawk Channel winds are east 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. Florida Bay winds are east 10 to 15 knots, with bay waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast for all zones.

A weak and diffuse front remains in the area. Late week, confidence is slowly increasing for a rather strong cold front driving southeastward through the Gulf and towards the Florida Keys over the weekend. Saturday night, Straits winds increase to 15 to 20 knots with seas building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Sunday brings northeast to east winds near 20 knots in the Straits with seas 4 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected.

Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

The NOAA and NDBC products used for this report are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 14, 2026, at 4:29 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 14, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 14 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

Prepared at 11:30 AM EDT using the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 10:14 AM EDT today. Little changed from the morning report. The afternoon wind call is essentially unchanged, still near 15 knots across the zones. The main difference is in the Straits, where seas are now 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The morning bulletin had called for 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The low end of the sea state range has lifted by one foot.

For the Hawk Channel, expect northeast to east winds near 15 knots. Seas hold at 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters see a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. The Straits of Florida sees similar winds near 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Showers are likely here with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Florida Bay also has northeast to east winds near 15 knots. Bay waters remain a moderate chop. Showers and slight thunderstorm chances persist.

For reef planning from Molasses to Tennessee, the shift in the Straits sea state is the only material change. The latest Gulf Stream edge position in the bulletin is as of October 9, 2026. Use the updated sea state for boat handling and line management. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

Tonight, the Straits winds are east 15 to 20 knots, becoming east to southeast. Seas build to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Hawk Channel winds stay near 15 knots with seas at 2 to 3 feet. Florida Bay winds decrease to 10 to 15 knots as the chop lightens. Tomorrow, Thursday, brings east to southeast winds in the Straits, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas drop to 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Hawk Channel winds are 10 to 15 knots with seas at 2 to 3 feet. Florida Bay winds are 10 to 15 knots with light to moderate chop.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings to report. The morning tide predictions and the 5:54 AM Vaca Key reading are unchanged and were not refreshed.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 10:14 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026, checked 11:30 AM EDT.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 14, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 14, 2026, using the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 4:32 PM EDT today. The morning report above is preserved in full. This update captures the latest forecast numbers for the evening and Thursday. No verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations were available.

Afternoon recap

The 4:32 PM EDT bulletin from NOAA Key West shifts the Straits forecast slightly from the midday update. The midday report called for seas of 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The new evening forecast brings that back to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, matching the morning report.

Tonight’s ride

Tonight, the Hawk Channel sees east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters will be a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. Expect a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Outside the reef, the Straits of Florida will have east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The wave detail shows northeast to east 4 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Florida Bay tonight has northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast and increasing to near 15 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Thursday, October 15 outlook

Thursday brings a similar pattern across the zones. In the Hawk Channel, winds are east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

The Straits of Florida will see east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The wave detail indicates east 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Florida Bay winds are east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast.

For regional planning from Molasses to Tennessee, use the updated Straits sea state of 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The Gulf Stream edge data from the bulletin remains as of October 9, 2026. It is 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light and 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light. No new visibility or current readings are available for these reef areas.

No species or catch data is available. Nothing in the forecast supports a specific species call.

Evening forecast source

The data for this update comes from the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast.

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 4:32 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.