October 16, 2026
Captain's log, October 16, 2026, calm before the weekend front
Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.
Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 16, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.
High pressure over the southeastern United States is shifting east while a frontal system develops and sweeps southeastward across the country. Today brings gentle to moderate easterly breezes that slacken into the afternoon. Hawk Channel seas are 1 to 2 feet, and the Straits see 2 to 3 feet. A cold front is forecast to reach Gulf waters Saturday night, bringing fresh breezes and a likely Small Craft Advisory by late in the weekend. No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.
Wind and seas today
NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:26 AM EDT on October 16. In Hawk Channel, east to southeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
Outside the reef in the Straits, east to southeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shows east 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
Florida Bay has east to southeast winds near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters are a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure. Leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.
From Molasses to Tennessee
Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.
| Reef area | Morning planning note |
|---|---|
| Molasses | The NDBC station has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading. |
| Conch | Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
| Davis | Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
| Crocker | Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
| Alligator | Gulf Stream edge was 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water. |
| Tennessee | Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.
Today’s tides
The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 16, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.
| Event | Time, EDT | Height, feet MLLW |
|---|---|---|
| High | 01:54 | 0.793 |
| Low | 10:33 | 0.199 |
| High | 15:37 | 0.489 |
| Low | 20:56 | 0.42 |
The first low is predicted at 10:33 AM. The next predicted high is at 3:37 PM. This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.
Water temperature
NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 85.6 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 16. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.
Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.
Species outlook
No species or catch data is available. Nothing in the forecast supports a species call.
Tonight and tomorrow
Tonight, Hawk Channel has east winds 5 to 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Straits winds are east 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds near 5 knots. Bay waters are smooth. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday brings north to northeast winds 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel, becoming north near 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Straits winds are northeast 5 to 10 knots, becoming north near 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay has north to northeast winds near 5 knots, becoming north and increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters are smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday night brings a change in conditions. Hawk Channel winds are north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast near 20 knots after midnight. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, but west of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas build to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Nearshore waters become rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Straits winds are north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas build to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Florida Bay winds increase to near 20 knots. Bay waters become rough. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Sunday brings northeast winds 20 to 25 knots in Hawk Channel. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are very rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Straits winds are near 20 knots. Seas are 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Florida Bay winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Bay waters are choppy, becoming rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected.
Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.
Sources
Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.
The NOAA and NDBC products used for this report are linked below.
- NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 16, 2026, at 4:26 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
- NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 16, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
- NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 16 at 5:54 AM EDT.
- NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.
Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT
Prepared at 11:30 AM EDT using the NOAA bulletin issued at 10:28 AM EDT today. The main change versus the morning report is that the Straits afternoon winds dropped from 10 to 15 knots decreasing to near 10, to just near 10 knots. Florida Bay winds are now 5 to 10 knots, down from the morning’s near 10 knots decreasing to 5 to 10. Bay waters are a smooth to light chop, rather than a light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Hawk Channel conditions match the morning forecast.
This afternoon in Hawk Channel, east to southeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. In the Straits, east to southeast winds are near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shows east 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay has east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are a smooth to light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. Regional planning notes remain valid. No new verified catches or on-the-water readings are available. No new tide or water temperature data was pulled at 11:30 AM. The tide table and water temperature from the morning report stand.
Tonight, Hawk Channel has east winds 5 to 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Straits winds are east 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds near 5 knots. Bay waters are smooth. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday brings north to northeast winds 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel, becoming north near 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Straits winds are northeast 5 to 10 knots, becoming north near 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay has north to northeast winds near 5 knots, becoming north and increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters are smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday night brings a change. The cold front reaches Gulf waters Saturday night. Breezes freshen rapidly alongside squally conditions. Hawk Channel winds are north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast near 20 knots after midnight. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas build to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Nearshore waters become rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Straits winds are north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet after midnight. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Florida Bay winds are north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming rough. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for part or all of the Florida Keys waters by Saturday night into Sunday.
Sunday brings northeast winds 20 to 25 knots in Hawk Channel. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are very rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Straits winds are near 20 knots. Seas are 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Florida Bay winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Bay waters are choppy, becoming rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected.
Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 16, 2026, at 10:28 AM EDT. Checked at 11:30 AM EDT.
Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.
Evening update, October 16, 2026
Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 16, 2026. This update relies on the NOAA Key West coastal waters bulletin issued at 4:30 PM EDT today. The morning and midday reports above remain valid for historical context. No verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations were logged for this entry.
Afternoon recap
The 4:30 PM bulletin confirms the frontal system is tracking southeastward. Winds slacken and veer northeasterly tonight. Shower coverage is expected to increase across both nearshore and offshore waters.
The 4:30 PM bulletin keeps the Saturday night front timing and the likely Small Craft Advisory by Saturday night into Sunday.
Tonight’s ride
In the Hawk Channel, east winds are 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
The Straits of Florida see east winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail shows east 2 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
Florida Bay has northeast to east winds near 5 knots. Bay waters are smooth. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday, October 17
Tomorrow starts with manageable conditions but deteriorates after dark. In the Hawk Channel, northeast to east winds are 5 to 10 knots, becoming north near 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
The Straits have east winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north to northeast near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
Florida Bay winds are northeast near 5 knots, becoming north to northwest 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
The cold front arrives Saturday night, bringing a rapid wind shift. Hawk Channel winds turn north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, then northeast 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 1 foot, building to 2 to 3 feet, except 1 to 2 feet, building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters become very rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected.
Straits winds are northeast 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail is northeast 2 feet at 3 seconds, becoming northeast 3 feet at 4 seconds. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected.
Florida Bay winds are north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy after midnight. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, Saturday daytime is the better window. The Gulf Stream edge was 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light as of October 9, 2026. The other four areas have no area-specific data. Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water.
There is no species outlook. The weather pattern is the primary constraint. If you plan to run outside the reef, be back before the winds freshen Saturday night.
Evening forecast source
NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 4:30 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026.
Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.
Conditions data provided by FishIntel.ai, fishing intelligence for the Florida Keys and beyond.