October 17, 2026
Captain's log, October 17, 2026, front on the way, get out early
Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.
Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 17, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.
A cold frontal system is making its way southeast across the northern Gulf. Until it hits the Keys waters tonight, the morning looks manageable. Northeast winds are light, near 5 knots, and seas in Hawk Channel are around 1 foot. Florida Bay is smooth. But do not let the calm morning fool you. The front is expected to bring a rapid shift in wind and sea state tonight, likely triggering a Small Craft Advisory for parts of the Keys. Get your boats in before the weather turns. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.
Wind and seas today
NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:28 AM EDT on October 17.
In Hawk Channel, northeast to east winds are 5 to 10 knots, becoming north near 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
Outside the reef in the Straits, east winds are 5 to 10 knots, becoming north to northeast near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail shows east 1 foot at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.
Florida Bay has northeast winds near 5 knots, becoming north to northwest 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure. Leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.
From Molasses to Tennessee
Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.
| Reef area | Morning planning note |
|---|---|
| Molasses | The NDBC station has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of October 14, 2026. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading. |
| Conch | Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
| Davis | Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
| Crocker | Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
| Alligator | Gulf Stream edge was 1 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 14, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water. |
| Tennessee | Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning. |
These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.
Today’s tides
The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 17, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.
| Event | Time, EDT | Height, feet MLLW |
|---|---|---|
| High | 02:42 | 0.761 |
| Low | 11:39 | 0.236 |
| High | 16:53 | 0.479 |
| Low | 21:37 | 0.451 |
The first low is predicted at 11:39 AM. The next predicted high is at 4:53 PM. This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.
Water temperature
NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 86.4 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 17. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.
Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.
Species outlook
No species or catch data is available. Nothing in the forecast supports a species call.
Tonight and tomorrow
Tonight, the weather changes fast. Hawk Channel winds are north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 1 foot, building to 2 to 3 feet, except 1 to 2 feet, building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming very rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Straits winds are northeast 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail is northeast 2 feet at 3 seconds, becoming northeast 3 feet at 4 seconds. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Florida Bay winds are north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy after midnight. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Sunday brings northeast winds 20 to 25 knots in Hawk Channel. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are very rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Straits winds are northeast 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet, except building to 7 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet eastern Straits. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Florida Bay winds are northeast 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters are choppy, becoming very rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected.
Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.
Sources
Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.
The NOAA and NDBC products used for this report are linked below.
- NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 17, 2026, at 4:28 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
- NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 17, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
- NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 17 at 5:54 AM EDT.
- NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.
Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT
This update was prepared at 11:30 AM EDT using the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 10:26 AM EDT on October 17, 2026. The main change versus the morning report is in the Small Craft Advisory wording. The morning post noted an advisory was likely triggering for parts of the Keys. The new bulletin states an advisory will likely be required for Hawk Channel tonight, while Florida Bay and the Straits remain under a “may be required” advisory. The synopsis notes shower chances peak tonight and Sunday.
This afternoon, Hawk Channel winds are northeast to east 5 to 10 knots, becoming north near 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. In the Straits, east winds are 5 to 10 knots, becoming north to northeast near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail shows east 1 foot at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. Florida Bay sees east winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest to north near 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, the regional planning notes hold. The Gulf Stream edge is 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light and 1 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 14. The afternoon stays light with a wind shift to north near 10 knots. The front reaches the northernmost Gulf waters tonight. Recheck the forecast before leaving and plan to be in before tonight’s freshening.
Tonight, Hawk Channel winds go north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots. Seas build from 1 foot to 2 to 3 feet, except 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters become very rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Straits winds increase from northeast 10 to 15 knots to 15 to 20 knots. Seas build from around 2 feet to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail is northeast 2 feet at 3 seconds, becoming northeast 3 feet at 4 seconds. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Florida Bay winds go north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy after midnight. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Sunday brings northeast winds 20 to 25 knots in Hawk Channel. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are very rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Straits winds are northeast 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet, except building to 7 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet eastern Straits. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected. Florida Bay winds are northeast 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters are choppy, becoming very rough. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected.
No new verified catches or on-the-water readings were available. The tide table and water temperature above keep their original labels. Do not treat the 11:39 AM low tide prediction as a current observation.
Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 10:26 AM EDT on October 17, 2026, checked 11:30 AM EDT.
Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.
Conditions data provided by FishIntel.ai, fishing intelligence for the Florida Keys and beyond.