Captain's log, October 18, 2026, Small Craft Advisory and rough seas

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 8:35 PM EDT on October 18, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 8:35 PM EDT.

A cold front is stalled across the Straits of Florida with fresh to strong northeasterly breezes across the Keys waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys waters. Expect hazardous winds and seas through tonight. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:19 PM EDT on October 18, 2026.

Tonight in Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are very rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Tonight outside the reef in the Straits, northeast to east winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet, except 8 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet in the eastern Straits. Wave detail shows northeast to east 8 feet at 7 seconds and west to northwest 3 feet at 8 seconds. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected.

Tonight in Florida Bay, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to near 20 knots. Bay waters are very rough, becoming rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure. Leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of October 14, 2026. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading.
Conch	Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef.
Davis	Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef.
Crocker	Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 1 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 14, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 18, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
High	03:40	0.734
Low	12:48	0.263
High	18:28	0.499
Low	23:28	0.475

This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 84.6 F at 8:24 PM EDT on October 18. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No species or catch data is available. Nothing in the forecast supports a species call.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to near 20 knots. Bay waters are very rough, becoming rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Monday, northeast winds are near 20 knots. Bay waters are rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Monday night, north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters are choppy.

Recheck before leaving rather than carrying these numbers into another day.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

The NOAA and NDBC products used for this report are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 18, 2026, at 4:19 PM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 18, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 18 at 8:24 PM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.