Captain's log, October 19, 2026, Small Craft Advisory and rough seas

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 19, 2026. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

A cold front has stalled over the southern waters of the Florida Straits. This keeps fresh to strong northeasterly breezes in place across the Keys. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys waters. Hazardous winds and seas will continue through tonight. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:24 AM EDT on October 19, 2026.

Today in Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet, subsiding to 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Nearshore waters are very rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Today outside the reef in the Straits, northeast to east winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet. In the eastern Straits, seas are 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet. Wave detail shows northeast to east 9 feet at 8 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Today in Florida Bay, northeast winds are near 20 knots. Bay waters are rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights. This is the average height of the highest third of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of October 14, 2026. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading.
Conch	Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef.
Davis	Same as Conch.
Crocker	Same as Conch.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 1 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 14, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	Same as Conch.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 19, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
High	04:55	0.718
Low	13:50	0.28
High	19:24	0.541

This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 82.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 19. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No species or catch data is available. Nothing in the forecast supports a species call.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Nearshore waters are very rough. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Tuesday, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. General seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, subsiding to 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Nearshore waters are very rough, becoming choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Tuesday night, northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Nearshore waters are choppy.

Recheck before leaving rather than carrying these numbers into another day.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 19, 2026, at 4:24 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 19, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 19 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

I sat down at the kitchen table at 11:30 AM EDT to check the weather again. NOAA Key West issued their updated Coastal Waters Forecast at 10:31 AM EDT this morning. The good news is that the numbers match the 4:24 AM bulletin we used for the morning report. There is no material change in wind, seas, or the Small Craft Advisory status. The stalled cold front is still parked over the southern Straits, keeping the breeze steady.

This afternoon looks exactly like the morning forecast. In Hawk Channel, we are dealing with northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. If you are west of Cosgrove Shoal Light, expect 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet, before subsiding to 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Nearshore waters remain very rough. There is still a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Out in the Straits, conditions are rougher. Northeast to east winds are holding at 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet. The eastern Straits are seeing 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet. The wave detail confirms northeast to east swells at 9 feet with an 8-second period. Showers are likely there, with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Florida Bay is not a safe haven today. Northeast winds are near 20 knots. Bay waters are rough. We still have a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, nothing has shifted. Use the Hawk Channel numbers for inside water and the Straits numbers for exposed water beyond the reef. The Gulf Stream edge remains 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light and 1 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light, based on the October 14 data. Since the forecast numbers are identical to the morning report, your planning strategy does not need to change.

Tonight and tomorrow follow the same trend. Tonight, winds stay 20 to 25 knots with seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Tuesday brings a slight easing of wind to 15 to 20 knots later in the day. Seas will subside to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Tuesday night sees winds at 15 to 20 knots and seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings to report. The tide table and water temperature above keep their original labels. Stick to the boat’s gauge for temperature and check actual flow at your fishing position rather than relying on the bay reference.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 1031 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026, checked 11:30 AM EDT.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 19, 2026

I wrote this at 5:00 PM EDT using the NOAA Coastal Waters Forecast issued at 4:17 PM EDT today. The morning report above stands as written.

Afternoon recap

There are no verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations to report. The 4:17 PM bulletin confirms the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys waters. A cold front is stalled over the southern waters of the Florida Straits. This keeps fresh to strong northeasterly breezes in place. Hazardous winds and seas will continue through tonight.

Breezes will gradually slacken to moderate to fresh during the middle of the week as the front moves over Cuba. Do not expect a sudden drop in wind before then.

Tonight’s ride

Tonight in the Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Nearshore waters are very rough.

Out in the Straits, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 8 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers is expected.

Florida Bay is not a safe haven tonight. Northeast winds are near 20 knots. Bay waters are rough.

Tuesday, October 20

Tomorrow in the Straits, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet, subsiding to 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 8 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers is possible.

In the Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Nearshore waters are very rough, becoming choppy. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Florida Bay will see northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters are choppy.

For planning from Molasses to Tennessee, use the Hawk Channel numbers for inside water and the Straits numbers for exposed water. The Gulf Stream edge data from October 14 remains the best reference. It was 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light and 1 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light. Remember that the Gulf Stream moves. Check your position against current boundaries. Do not anchor on coral.

There is no species outlook available.

Evening forecast source

The data for this update comes from the NOAA Key West Coastal Waters Forecast issued at 4:17 PM EDT on October 19, 2026. You can view the full bulletin here: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.