Captain's log, October 20, 2026, Small Craft Advisory and rough seas

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 20, 2026. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

A strong Canadian high pressure system sits across the Great Lakes while a low pressure system off North Carolina keeps the pressure gradient tight. This setup drives fresh to strong northeasterly breezes through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:28 AM EDT on October 20, 2026.

Today in Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to near 20 knots this afternoon. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, subsiding to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 7 feet. Nearshore waters are very rough, becoming rough. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

Today outside the reef in the Straits, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to near 20 knots. Seas are 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 7 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

Today in Florida Bay, northeast winds are near 20 knots. Bay waters are rough. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights. This is the average height of the highest third of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of October 14, 2026. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading.
Conch	Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef.
Davis	Same as Conch.
Crocker	Same as Conch.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 1 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 14, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	Same as Conch.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 20, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	01:14	0.465
High	06:15	0.72
Low	14:40	0.291
High	19:56	0.592

This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 80.6 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 20. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No species or catch data is available. Nothing in the forecast supports a species call.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight, northeast winds are near 20 knots, becoming north to northeast and decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 7 feet. Nearshore waters are rough, becoming choppy. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Wednesday, northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Nearshore waters are choppy, becoming a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Wednesday night, northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop.

Recheck before leaving rather than carrying these numbers into another day.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 20, 2026, at 4:28 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 20, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 20 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

This update was prepared at 11:30 AM EDT using the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 1038 AM EDT today. The main changes versus the morning report are in the Hawk Channel. Winds are now listed as near 20 knots, whereas the morning forecast had them at 20 to 25 knots decreasing to near 20. The nearshore description is now simply rough, dropping the morning’s “very rough, becoming rough” wording. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, without the morning’s “subsiding” note. No material changes were noted for the Straits or Florida Bay.

For this afternoon, the Straits of Florida will see northeast winds decreasing to near 20 knots. Seas remain 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet, with wave detail showing northeast 7 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers persists. In the Hawk Channel, northeast winds are near 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are rough. Florida Bay also sees northeast winds near 20 knots with rough bay waters and a slight chance of showers.

The Hawk Channel updates refine the inside water outlook for reef trips from Molasses to Tennessee. The wind shift to a steady near 20 knots and the simplified sea height description for the western channel offer clearer planning parameters. No current reading is available for the reef line, so use the regional forecast for positioning.

Tonight, northeast winds are near 20 knots in the Straits. Seas are 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. In the Hawk Channel, northeast winds are near 20 knots, becoming north to northeast and decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 7 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are rough, becoming choppy. Florida Bay has northeast winds near 20 knots, becoming north to northeast and decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters are rough, becoming choppy.

Wednesday brings lighter conditions. The Straits will have northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, subsiding to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Hawk Channel winds are 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are choppy, becoming a light to moderate chop. Florida Bay sees north to northeast winds near 15 knots, becoming northeast and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings available at this time. The tide table and water temperature data provided earlier in this report keep their original labels and values. No new observations from NDBC stations or local reports have come in to alter the environmental data.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 1038 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026, checked at 11:30 AM EDT.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.