Captain's log, October 21, 2026, breezes slackening ahead of weekend pattern

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 21, 2026. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

A continental high pressure system centered over southern Canada will begin to weaken today, accompanied by slackening breezes. Another high pressure system will develop over the Eastern Seaboard Friday and Friday night. Meanwhile, a broad low pressure system will begin to fester near the southeastern Bahamas. The resulting pattern likely will result in strong, to potentially near gale breezes by Sunday or Sunday night. The freshening breezes and a surge of moisture will support elevated rain and thunder chances over the weekend. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:31 AM EDT on October 21, 2026.

Today in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are choppy, becoming a light to moderate chop.

Today in Florida Bay, north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast and decreasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters are choppy, becoming a light chop.

Today outside the reef in the Straits, northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, subsiding to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights. This is the average height of the highest third of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of October 19, 2026. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading.
Conch	No reef-specific data available. Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef.
Davis	No reef-specific data available. Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef.
Crocker	No reef-specific data available. Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 19, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	No reef-specific data available. Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 21, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	02:26	0.422
High	07:26	0.734
Low	15:20	0.299
High	20:24	0.65

This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 79.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 21. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No species or catch data is available.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop.

Thursday in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Thursday night in Hawk Channel, northeast winds are near 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop, becoming choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 21, 2026, at 4:31 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 21, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 21 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

Prepared at 11:30 AM EDT on October 21, 2026, using the NOAA Coastal Waters Forecast for the Florida Keys issued at 9:16 AM EDT. The synopsis has shifted. The morning report cited a weakening high over southern Canada and a developing high over the Eastern Seaboard. The current bulletin points to a strong low off the Mid-Atlantic supporting slowly slackening breezes, while a weak high over the Northern Plains progresses eastward. A broad low near the southeastern Bahamas is still expected to fester late Friday through the weekend, tightening the pressure gradient for strong to potentially near gale northeasterly breezes by Sunday or Sunday night.

The main forecast revision is in the Straits of Florida. The morning report listed initial seas of 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. The new bulletin lowers that to 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Subsiding seas are now 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, versus the morning’s 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Straits winds are also holding a touch stronger, decreasing to near 15 knots rather than 10 to 15 knots. Hawk Channel subsiding seas are now around 2 feet, up from the morning’s 1 to 2 feet. A Small Craft Should Exercise Caution advisory is in effect until winds decrease.

This afternoon

In the Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are choppy, becoming a light to moderate chop.

Florida Bay has northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters are choppy, becoming a light chop.

The Straits of Florida have northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, subsiding to 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

Reef areas, Molasses to Tennessee

The revised Straits numbers are lower than this morning, but the winds aren’t dropping as much as the morning report suggested. Treat the reef areas as a regional planning zone only. There are still no verified visibility or current readings for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, or Tennessee.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight in the Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. Florida Bay has northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots, becoming north to northeast. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop. The Straits have northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 4 feet at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Thursday brings north to northeast winds near 15 knots in the Hawk Channel, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast. Florida Bay has north to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is expected. The Straits have north to northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

Thursday night brings northeast winds near 15 knots in the Hawk Channel, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas build to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Nearshore waters become choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. The Straits have northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Florida Bay has north to northeast winds near 15 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Friday brings northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots in the Hawk Channel. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Nearshore waters become rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. The Straits have northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas are 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 7 feet. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Florida Bay has north to northeast winds near 15 knots, becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters become choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Saturday brings northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots in the Hawk Channel. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are very rough. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Saturday night winds increase to 25 to 30 knots after midnight. Seas build to 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas build to 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. Nearshore waters become extremely rough.

Sunday brings northeast winds of 25 to 30 knots. Hawk Channel seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, except 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are extremely rough. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms. The Straits have seas of 10 to 14 feet, occasionally to 18 feet. Florida Bay waters are choppy on Saturday, very rough Saturday night and Sunday, and extremely rough Sunday night.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings. No reef-specific visibility or current readings are available.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 9:16 AM EDT October 21, 2026, checked 11:30 AM EDT October 21, 2026.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 21, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 21, 2026, using the NOAA Coastal Waters Forecast for the Florida Keys issued at 4:21 PM EDT today. The morning report and the midday update above remain preserved in the log.

Afternoon recap

No verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations were available. The synopsis notes a strong low off the Mid-Atlantic lifting northward, supporting slackening breezes. A weak high over the Dakotas is moving east. The broad low near the southeastern Bahamas is still expected to fester late Friday through the weekend.

Tonight’s ride

In the Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

Florida Bay has north to northeast winds of 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop.

The Straits of Florida have northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, building to 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 4 feet at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Thursday, October 22 outlook

Thursday brings north to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots in the Hawk Channel, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

Florida Bay has north to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is expected.

The Straits of Florida have north to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

For regional planning from Molasses to Tennessee, use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. The Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 19, 2026. There are no verified reef-specific visibility or current readings for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, or Tennessee.

There is no species outlook available. No bite reports have been confirmed.

Evening forecast source

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 4:21 PM EDT October 21, 2026, checked 5:00 PM EDT October 21, 2026.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.