Captain's log, October 22, 2026, freshening breezes ahead of weekend weather

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 22, 2026. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

Subtropical Storm Josephine is off the Mid-Atlantic, lifting slowly northward. High pressure building behind it is re-strengthening the pressure gradient across the Keys, which means freshening breezes today. A broad low pressure system is festering near the southeastern Bahamas. As these systems interact, we are looking at strong to potentially near gale northeasterly breezes by Sunday or Sunday night. The moisture surge will bring elevated rain and thunder chances over the weekend through Monday. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:28 AM EDT on October 22, 2026.

Today in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

Today in Florida Bay, north winds are 10 to 15 knots, becoming north to northeast and decreasing to near 5 knots this afternoon. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Today outside the reef in the Straits, north to northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights. This is the average height of the highest third of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station MLRF1 has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of October 19, 2026.
Conch	No reef-specific data. Use Hawk Channel for inside, Straits for outside.
Davis	No reef-specific data. Use Hawk Channel for inside, Straits for outside.
Crocker	No reef-specific data. Use Hawk Channel for inside, Straits for outside.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 19, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	No reef-specific data. Use Hawk Channel for inside, Straits for outside.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 22, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	03:22	0.355
High	08:25	0.749
Low	15:54	0.306
High	20:52	0.712

This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 78.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 22. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

This report contains no catch or bite information.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected.

Tonight in the Straits, north to northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Friday in Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Friday in the Straits, northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

The data in this report comes directly from the NOAA and NDBC products listed below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 22, 2026, at 4:28 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 22, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 22 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

Prepared at 11:30 AM EDT on October 22, 2026, using the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 10:47 AM EDT today. This bulletin replaces the 4:28 AM EDT version used in the morning report. The main changes are that Hawk Channel and Straits winds are now near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots, compared to the morning’s 10 to 15 knots. Florida Bay winds are now 5 to 10 knots with smooth to a light chop, whereas the morning report listed near 5 knots and smooth waters.

This afternoon in the Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers remains. In the Straits, north to northeast winds are near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Florida Bay sees north winds of 10 to 15 knots, becoming north to northeast and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop.

For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, use the updated Hawk Channel numbers for inside water and the Straits numbers for exposed water. The afternoon wind forecast now starts near 15 knots before easing. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings are available. The Gulf Stream edge positions listed in the morning report remain the most recent data from the Naval Oceanographic Office.

Tonight, winds in the Hawk Channel increase to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy. In the Straits, winds increase to 15 to 20 knots after midnight, with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Florida Bay winds increase to near 15 knots, with waters becoming a moderate chop. Tomorrow, Friday, the freshening trend continues. Northeast winds reach 15 to 20 knots in all three zones. Seas rise to 2 to 3 feet in the Hawk Channel and 3 to 5 feet in the Straits. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings to add to this update. No new tide or water temperature readings are included here. The tide table and water temperature from the morning report remain unchanged.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 1047 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026, checked at 11:30 AM EDT.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 22, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 22, 2026. This update relies on the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 4:26 PM EDT today. The morning report and the midday update above remain in place.

Afternoon recap

The 4:26 PM EDT bulletin covers tonight onward. It does not revise the afternoon conditions listed in the midday update. The synopsis notes high pressure sliding east and interacting with a disturbance in the Caribbean, supporting freshening northeasterly breezes.

There are no verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations to report.

Tonight’s ride

Tonight in the Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, except around 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. This is higher than the midday figure of 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy late. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

In the Straits, north to northeast winds are near 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Florida Bay winds are north to northeast 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming choppy late. A chance of showers is expected.

Friday, October 23 outlook

Tomorrow brings a noticeable step up in wind and sea state across all three zones.

In the Hawk Channel, northeast winds will be 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet west of the Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters will be choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

In the Straits, northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Florida Bay will see northeast winds near 15 knots. Bay waters will be a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

For regional planning from Molasses to Tennessee, use the Hawk Channel numbers for inside water and the Straits numbers for exposed water. The Gulf Stream edge positions from the morning report remain the most recent data. No reef-specific visibility or current readings are available.

There is no catch or bite information.

Evening forecast source

The data for this update comes directly from the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast.

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 4:26 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.