Islamorada fishing report, October 23, 2026, freshening northeast breezes and rising seas

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 23, 2026. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

High pressure north of the Great Lakes is sliding east and strengthening. It is interacting with a disturbance in the eastern Caribbean, which is pumping freshening northeasterly breezes over the Keys today. We are looking at a small craft advisory likely being required tonight as winds push toward 20 knots and seas build. Rain chances are increasing through the day. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:29 AM EDT on October 23, 2026.

Today in Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Nearshore waters are choppy, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers is in the forecast.

Today in Florida Bay, north to northeast winds are near 15 knots, becoming northeast and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers is expected.

Today outside the reef in the Straits, northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights. This is the average height of the highest third of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station MLRF1 has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of October 19, 2026.
Conch	No reef-specific data. Use Hawk Channel for inside, Straits for outside.
Davis	No reef-specific data. Use Hawk Channel for inside, Straits for outside.
Crocker	No reef-specific data. Use Hawk Channel for inside, Straits for outside.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 19, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	No reef-specific data. Use Hawk Channel for inside, Straits for outside.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 23, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	04:10	0.273
High	09:18	0.755
Low	16:25	0.311
High	21:21	0.773

This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 78.4 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 23. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

This report contains no catch or bite information.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight in Hawk Channel, northeast winds are increasing to near 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are becoming rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Tonight in the Straits, northeast winds are near 20 knots. Seas are 4 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 6 feet at 6 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday in Hawk Channel, northeast winds are near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are rough, becoming choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Saturday in the Straits, northeast winds are near 20 knots. Seas are 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 6 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

The data in this report comes directly from the NOAA and NDBC products listed below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 23, 2026, at 4:29 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 23, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 23 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

Islamorada fishing report, October 23, 2026, small craft caution in effect, seas rising through weekend

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

This update was prepared at 11:30 AM EDT using the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 10:28 AM EDT on October 23, 2026. Several details have shifted since the morning report. The synopsis now warns that breezes will peak Sunday night through Tuesday, with strong to near gale conditions possible. It also highlights elevated rain and isolated strong thunderstorm chances from Friday night through Monday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution is now in effect for the Hawk Channel until winds decrease, and Small Craft Exercise Caution is active for the Straits. The morning post only noted an advisory was likely tonight. Looking ahead, Sunday night through Tuesday winds reach 25 to 30 knots, with Straits seas hitting 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet, on Monday night and Tuesday.

This afternoon in the Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Nearshore waters are choppy, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers is forecast. Out in the Straits, northeast winds hold at 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Florida Bay has north to northeast winds near 15 knots, becoming northeast and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers is expected.

For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water. The Gulf Stream edge is 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of October 19, 2026.

Tonight in Florida Bay, northeast winds are near 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop, becoming choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Hawk Channel, northeast winds increase to near 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters become rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, northeast winds are near 20 knots. Seas are 4 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 6 feet at 6 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday in the Hawk Channel, northeast winds are near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are rough, becoming choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, northeast winds are near 20 knots. Seas are 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 6 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings. Tides and water temperature were not refreshed in this update. Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 1028 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026, checked 11:30 AM EDT on October 23, 2026

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 23, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. This update uses the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 4:25 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. The morning report above is superseded by this update.

Afternoon recap

No verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations are available. The 4:25 PM bulletin confirms a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Florida Bay, Hawk Channel, and the Straits of Florida. The synopsis notes that breezes will peak Sunday night through Tuesday, with strong to near gale conditions possible.

Tonight’s ride

Florida Bay northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Wave detail shows northeast 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay waters are choppy, becoming rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Hawk Channel northeast winds are near 15 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop, becoming rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

The Straits of Florida northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail is northeast 6 feet at 6 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. This is a slight decrease from the morning’s tonight forecast of 4 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet.

Saturday, October 24 outlook

Florida Bay northeast winds decrease to near 15 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop.

Hawk Channel northeast winds are near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Nearshore waters are rough, becoming choppy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected.

The Straits of Florida northeast winds are near 20 knots. Seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail is northeast 6 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

For regional planning from Molasses to Tennessee, the Gulf Stream edge remains 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light and 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 19, 2026. Use Hawk Channel data for inside water and Straits data for exposed water. There are no specific reef observations to contradict this.

No catch or bite reports to pass along.

Evening forecast source

The data for this update comes from the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued at 4:25 PM EDT on Friday, October 23, 2026.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.