Islamorada fishing report, October 24, 2026, small craft advisory and northeast wind near 20 knots

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 11:30 AM EDT on October 24, 2026.

High pressure over the eastern United States is holding firm, driving persistent fresh to strong breezes across the Keys. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. Bay waters are forecast choppy, becoming rough this afternoon. The Straits are forecast to see seas of 4 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. There is a slight chance of showers inside and a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms outside. The synopsis notes elevated rain and thunderstorm chances through Monday. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 10:25 AM EDT on October 24, 2026.

This afternoon in Hawk Channel (zones GMZ042 through GMZ044), northeast winds are near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, except 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are rough, becoming choppy. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

This afternoon in Florida Bay, northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Bay waters are choppy, becoming rough. A slight chance of showers is expected.

This afternoon outside the reef in the Straits, northeast winds are near 20 knots. Seas are 4 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 6 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights. This is the average height of the highest third of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station MLRF1 has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of October 19, 2026 (five days old).
Conch	No reef-specific data.
Davis	No reef-specific data.
Crocker	No reef-specific data.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 19, 2026 (five days old). Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	No reef-specific data.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 24, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	04:54	0.185
High	10:07	0.747
Low	16:56	0.314
High	21:52	0.83

This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature, regional bay reading

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 77.4 F at 11:24 AM EDT on October 24. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No catch or bite reports were available. No species outlook can be given beyond conditions. The persistent northeast wind and rough bay waters will likely limit access to shallow flats and increase the effort required to hold bottom on the reef.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, except 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are rough, becoming choppy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected.

Tonight in the Straits, north to northeast winds are near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 4 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 6 feet at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected.

Sunday in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, except 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are choppy, becoming rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Sunday in the Straits, north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas are 4 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail shows north to northeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Sunday night in the Straits, northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are building to 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The synopsis notes that strong to near gale breezes are possible peaking Sunday night through Tuesday.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 24, 2026, at 10:25 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 24, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 24 at 11:24 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Evening update, October 24, 2026

This update was prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 24, 2026. It incorporates the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 4:11 PM EDT today. The morning report above remains valid and is preserved here for context.

Afternoon recap

No verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations were submitted to the log. The primary change from the morning report is the timing of the forecast issuance. The morning notes relied on a bulletin from 10:25 AM EDT. This new bulletin, issued at 4:11 PM EDT, confirms the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. High pressure over the eastern United States continues to drive fresh to strong breezes. The synopsis indicates that peak breezes are expected Sunday night through Tuesday. Near gale breezes are possible over the Outer Gulf waters. While the morning report noted elevated rain chances through Monday, the new synopsis specifies that freshening breezes and a pulse of low-level moisture may support elevated shower chances specifically on Sunday night and Monday.

Tonight’s ride

Tonight in Florida Bay, north winds are near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters are rough, becoming choppy. There is a slight chance of showers. Wave detail shows north to northeast 1 foot at 2 seconds.

In the Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, except 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are rough, becoming choppy. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Outside the reef in the Straits, north to northeast winds are near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 6 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast.

Sunday, October 25

Sunday in Florida Bay, north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Bay waters are choppy, becoming rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

In the Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, except 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are choppy, becoming rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

In the Straits, north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail shows north to northeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

For planning from Molasses to Tennessee, use the Hawk Channel numbers for inside water and the Straits numbers for exposed water. The Gulf Stream edge data from the Naval Oceanographic Office remains five days old as of October 19, 2026. It places the edge 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light and 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light. No new reef-specific visibility or current readings are available.

No species outlook can be given. There are no claimed bite reports. The persistent northeast wind will likely continue to limit access to shallow flats. Holding bottom on the reef will require increased effort.

Evening forecast source

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 24, 2026, at 4:11 PM EDT. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS52.KKEY.html

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.