Islamorada fishing report, October 25, 2026, small craft advisory and building northeast seas

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 25, 2026. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

High pressure over the eastern United States and a weak low northeast of the Bahamas are driving fresh to strong breezes through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. A Gale Watch is in effect for the Straits of Florida and SE Gulf Waters for early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Showers are likely tonight in the Straits, with a chance of showers Monday and only a slight chance of thunderstorms. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:30 AM EDT on Sunday, October 25, 2026.

Today in Hawk Channel (zones GMZ042 through GMZ044), north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are choppy, becoming very rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected this afternoon.

Today in Florida Bay (zone GMZ031), north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast and increasing to near 20 knots. Bay waters are choppy, becoming rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected this afternoon.

Today outside the reef in the Straits (zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075), north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, building to 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail shows north to northeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected this afternoon.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights. This is the average height of the highest third of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station MLRF1 has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of October 19, 2026.
Conch	No reef-specific data.
Davis	No reef-specific data.
Crocker	No reef-specific data.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 19, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	No reef-specific data.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 25, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	05:37	0.099
High	10:56	0.723
Low	17:27	0.314
High	22:25	0.88

This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 77.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 25. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No catch or bite reports were available. No species outlook can be given beyond conditions. The forecast calls for fresh to strong northeast breezes and rough to very rough nearshore waters today.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except building to 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are very rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, north to northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are building to 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 6 feet at 6 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are near 25 knots, increasing to 25 to 30 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are extremely rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, north to northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots, increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas are building to 8 to 11 feet, occasionally to 14 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 7 feet at 7 seconds. Showers are expected with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The synopsis notes that peak breezes are expected tonight through Tuesday in which near gale wind gusts will be possible over the Outer Gulf waters as well as the eastern distant Straits.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 25, 2026, at 4:30 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 25, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 25 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

Prepared at 11:30 AM EDT using the NOAA bulletin issued at 10:26 AM EDT on October 25, 2026. The 10:26 AM bulletin matches the morning forecast. Nothing material changed.

Afternoon conditions Hawk Channel north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are choppy, becoming very rough. Straits north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, building to 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail is north to northeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. Florida Bay north to northeast winds are 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast and increasing to near 20 knots. Bay waters are choppy, becoming rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Reef planning Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. Gulf Stream edge data is as of October 19, 2026. It was 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light.

Tonight and tomorrow A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. A Gale Watch is in effect for the Straits of Florida and SE Gulf Waters for early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Tonight in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas build to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are very rough. In the Straits, north to northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas build to 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet. Wave detail is northeast 6 feet at 6 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are near 25 knots, increasing to 25 to 30 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are extremely rough. In the Straits, north to northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots, increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas build to 8 to 11 feet, occasionally to 14 feet. Wave detail is northeast 7 feet at 7 seconds. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms are expected.

No new verified catches or on-the-water readings are available. No new tide or water temperature readings were pulled for this update.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 10:26 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026, checked 11:30 AM EDT.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 25, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 25, 2026. This update relies on the NOAA Coastal Waters Forecast issued at 4:31 PM EDT on Sunday, October 25, 2026. The morning and midday reports above remain valid for historical context, but the numbers below supersede them for immediate planning.

Afternoon recap

No verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations were submitted to the log. We are working strictly off the forecast. The 4:31 PM bulletin shows a clear escalation in sea states compared to the morning and midday reports. In the Hawk Channel, the afternoon forecast had seas at 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 5 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. The evening bulletin now calls for seas of 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. That is a significant jump in the upper range for the western channel.

In the Straits, the morning report listed seas building to 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. The new bulletin states seas are 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet, building to 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet. The wave detail has also shifted from 5 feet at 6 seconds to 8 feet at 7 seconds, becoming 9 feet at 7 seconds. Winds in the Straits are now listed as 20 to 25 knots, increasing to near 25 knots, whereas the morning report had them increasing to 20 to 25 knots. The system is tightening up faster than initially projected.

Tonight’s ride

The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. A Gale Watch is in effect for all zones from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning.

In the Hawk Channel, expect north to northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots, building to near 25 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters will be very rough, becoming extremely rough. There is a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

In the Straits of Florida, winds are northeast 20 to 25 knots, increasing to near 25 knots. Seas are 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet, building to 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet. Wave detail indicates northeast 8 feet at 7 seconds, becoming northeast 9 feet at 7 seconds. Showers are expected with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Florida Bay conditions are rough. North to northeast winds are near 20 knots. Wave detail shows northeast 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay waters are rough. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday, October 26

Monday brings the peak of this event. The Gale Watch covers all zones.

In the Hawk Channel, northeast winds will be near 25 knots, increasing to 25 to 30 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters will be extremely rough. Expect a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

In the Straits, northeast winds are 25 to 30 knots. Seas are 8 to 11 feet, occasionally to 14 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 10 feet at 8 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Florida Bay will see northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots, increasing to near 25 knots. Wave detail remains northeast 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay waters will be very rough, becoming extremely rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

For those planning to run from Molasses to Tennessee, the Gulf Stream edge data as of October 19, 2026, places the stream 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light and 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light. With the stream this close and the wind building to gale force gusts, the interface between the stream and the reef will be chaotic. Do not expect stable conditions.

There is no species outlook. With seas this high and winds this strong, the water column will be churned. No bite reports are available, and none are expected given the sea state.

Evening forecast source

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 4:31 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.