Islamorada fishing report, October 26, 2026, gale watch with rough seas

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 26, 2026. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

A Gale Watch is in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains active overnight. Near gale wind gusts are possible for all Florida Keys waters through Tuesday. Wave heights will stay elevated through midweek even after breezes begin to slacken. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 10:31 PM EDT on Sunday, October 25, 2026.

Today in Hawk Channel (zones GMZ042 through GMZ044), northeast winds are near 25 knots, increasing to 25 to 30 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are extremely rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Today in Florida Bay (zone GMZ031), northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots, increasing to near 25 knots. Bay waters are very rough, becoming extremely rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Today outside the reef in the Straits (zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075), northeast winds are 25 to 30 knots. Seas are 8 to 11 feet, occasionally to 14 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 10 feet at 8 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights. This is the average height of the highest third of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station MLRF1 has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of October 19, 2026.
Conch	No reef-specific data.
Davis	No reef-specific data.
Crocker	No reef-specific data.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 19, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	No reef-specific data.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 26, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	06:21	0.03
High	11:44	0.684
Low	17:59	0.312
High	23:02	0.917

This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 77.2 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 26. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No catch or bite reports were available. No species outlook can be given beyond conditions. The forecast calls for fresh to strong northeast breezes and extremely rough nearshore waters today.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 25 to 30 knots, decreasing to near 25 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are extremely rough. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, northeast winds are 25 to 30 knots, decreasing to near 25 knots. Seas are 8 to 11 feet, occasionally to 14 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 10 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Tuesday in Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are very rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, north to northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots. Seas are 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

The synopsis notes that gale force wind gusts are possible even near shallow showers.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 25, 2026, at 10:31 PM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 26, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 26 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

Prepared at 11:30 AM EDT on October 26, 2026, this update uses the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 10:16 AM EDT on Monday, October 26, 2026. The main change versus the morning report is the upgrade of the marine warning from a Gale Watch to a Gale Warning in effect for Florida Bay (zone GMZ031), Hawk Channel (zones GMZ042 through GMZ044), and the Straits of Florida (zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075). Hawk Channel seas have increased from 3 to 5 feet to 4 to 6 feet, Straits seas have increased from 8 to 11 feet to 9 to 12 feet, and Florida Bay winds have increased from 20 to 25 knots to 25 to 30 knots.

This afternoon, north to northeast winds in Florida Bay will increase to 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to near 35 knots. Bay waters are becoming extremely rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast. In the Hawk Channel, winds match the bay at 25 to 30 knots with gusts to near 35 knots. Seas are building to 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, expect 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet. Nearshore waters are extremely rough. The Straits of Florida have seas 9 to 12 feet, occasionally to 15 feet. Wave detail indicates northeast 12 feet at 8 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, the Gale Warning indicates frequent near gale gusts this afternoon through Tuesday morning. With seas building in the Hawk Channel and the Straits, exposed reef fishing is not feasible. The Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 19, 2026. Florida Bay is also under a Gale Warning with extremely rough waters, so no zone offers safe conditions today.

Tonight in Florida Bay, north to northeast winds are 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to near 35 knots, decreasing to 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters are extremely rough, becoming very rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to near 35 knots. Seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, except 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are extremely rough. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, northeast winds are 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to near 35 knots. Seas are 9 to 13 feet, occasionally to 17 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 12 feet at 9 seconds. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday in Florida Bay, north to northeast winds are 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to near 20 knots. Bay waters are very rough, becoming rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to near 35 knots in the morning, decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet, subsiding to 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Nearshore waters are extremely rough, becoming very rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, north to northeast winds are 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to near 35 knots in the morning, decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas are 9 to 12 feet, occasionally to 15 feet, subsiding to 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings. The tide table and water temperature from the morning report are not updated here.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 10:16 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026, checked at 11:30 AM EDT.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 26, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 26, 2026. This section relies on the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 4:04 PM EDT on Monday, October 26, 2026. The morning and midday reports above remain valid for their respective issue times.

Afternoon recap

The 4:04 PM bulletin confirms the Gale Warning remains in effect for Florida Bay, Hawk Channel, and the Straits. Compared to the 10:16 AM update, the afternoon forecast for the Straits shows a significant drop in sea state. The midday report projected tonight’s Straits seas at 9 to 13 feet, occasionally to 17 feet, with wave detail northeast 12 feet at 9 seconds. The current bulletin lists tonight’s Straits seas at 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet, with wave detail northeast 10 feet at 8 seconds. Both the lower and upper bounds have dropped. Hawk Channel seas for tonight are also lower than the midday projection. Midday had 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, and 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. The 4:04 PM bulletin lists 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, and 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet in that same western area. Florida Bay conditions for tonight also differ. The midday report had winds decreasing to 20 to 25 knots with waters extremely rough, becoming very rough. The new bulletin keeps winds at 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts near 35 knots and maintains extremely rough waters throughout the night. No verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations are available. The synopsis notes that a sprawling high pressure over the eastern United States is reinforcing a secondary high north of the Dakotas. This interaction with a low south of the Bahamas sustains frequent near gale gusts through Tuesday morning.

Tonight’s ride

Florida Bay remains under a Gale Warning. North to northeast winds are increasing to 25 to 30 knots, with frequent gusts near 35 knots. Bay waters are extremely rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

In the Hawk Channel, north to northeast winds are 25 to 30 knots, with frequent gusts near 35 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, expect 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Nearshore waters are extremely rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

The Straits of Florida see northeast winds of 25 to 30 knots, with frequent gusts near 35 knots. Seas are 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet. The wave detail indicates northeast 10 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Tuesday, October 27 outlook

Florida Bay winds start near 25 knots, decreasing to 20 to 25 knots, with bay waters becoming very rough. The Hawk Channel sees winds decreasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas remain 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are extremely rough, becoming very rough. The Straits have seas of 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 9 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms persists across all zones.

For planning from Molasses to Tennessee, the Gulf Stream edge sits 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light and 2 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light. These positions are from the October 19, 2026, advisory. The Gale Warning indicates frequent near gale gusts through Tuesday morning. With these winds and seas, exposed reef fishing is not feasible. The secondary high pressure system is expected to slide into the central North Atlantic later this week. This should support slackening northeast to east breezes for the middle to latter part of the work week.

No species outlook can be given beyond conditions. No catch reports were available. The Gale Warning and rough seas make nearshore angling difficult.

Evening forecast source

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 404 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.