Islamorada fishing report, October 28, 2026, breezes slacken, seas settle

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 28, 2026. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

The weather pattern is shifting. A weak area of low pressure is sliding westward towards the Keys. Breezes are going to slacken from east to west. We are looking at light to gentle northeast to east winds through Sunday night. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:32 AM EDT on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Today in Hawk Channel (zone GMZ042), northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Today in Florida Bay (zone GMZ031), north to northeast winds are near 15 knots, becoming northeast to east and decreasing to near 10 knots this afternoon. Bay waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Wave Detail: North to northeast 1 foot at 2 seconds. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Today outside the reef in the Straits (zones GMZ052 and GMZ072), northeast to east winds are near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 7 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave Detail: North to northeast 5 feet at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers is expected. Small craft should exercise caution until seas subside.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights. This is the average height of the highest third of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station MLRF1 has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 10 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of October 27, 2026.
Conch	No reef readings available today.
Davis	No reef readings available today.
Crocker	No reef readings available today.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 17 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 27, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	No reef readings available today.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 28, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	07:56	-0.022
High	13:24	0.58
Low	19:10	0.316

This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 77.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 28. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No catch or bite data exists. With breezes slackening and seas subsiding, conditions look easier today. The slight chance of showers might affect surface activity.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight in Hawk Channel, northeast to east winds are near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. A slight chance of showers is expected. In the Straits, east winds are near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 4 feet at 9 seconds. A chance of showers is expected.

Tonight in Florida Bay, northeast winds are near 10 knots. Bay waters are a light chop. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Thursday in Hawk Channel, northeast to east winds are near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth. A chance of showers is expected. In the Straits, east winds are near 5 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail shows north to northeast 3 feet at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Thursday in Florida Bay, northeast to east winds are 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers is expected.

The synopsis notes that the low pressure system will slide into the central Gulf and weaken later this week, as another high pressure system takes over the pressure field through the weekend. This will support light to gentle northeast to east breezes through Sunday night.

Conditions are workable today. The seas are settling down, especially inside the reef.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 28, 2026, at 4:32 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zone GMZ042, Straits zones GMZ052 and GMZ072, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 28, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 28 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

Prepared at 11:30 AM EDT on October 28, 2026, using the NOAA Key West coastal waters bulletin issued at 10:42 AM EDT. Nothing material changed compared to the morning report. The updated bulletin confirms the same wind and sea conditions for tonight and tomorrow across all zones.

This afternoon in Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet with nearshore waters showing a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers remains. In the Straits, northeast to east winds are near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 7 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows north to northeast 5 feet at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers is expected. Small craft should exercise caution until seas subside. In Florida Bay, north to northeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast to east and decreasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Wave detail shows north to northeast 1 foot at 2 seconds. A slight chance of showers is expected.

For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, this means no shift in regional planning. The morning bulletin’s numbers for tonight and Thursday match the new bulletin exactly. There is no change in wind or sea height predictions for these periods. Use the Hawk Channel forecast for inside water and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef.

Tonight and tomorrow follow the same pattern. Tonight in Hawk Channel, northeast to east winds are near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. A slight chance of showers is expected. In the Straits, east winds are near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 4 feet at 9 seconds. A chance of showers is expected. In Florida Bay, northeast winds are near 10 knots. Bay waters are a light chop. A slight chance of showers is expected.

Thursday brings northeast to east winds near 5 knots in Hawk Channel with seas around 1 foot and smooth nearshore waters. A chance of showers is expected. In the Straits, east winds are near 5 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail shows north to northeast 3 feet at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers is expected. Florida Bay will see northeast to east winds of 5 to 10 knots with smooth to light chop bay waters and a chance of showers.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings to report. The tide table and water temperature above keep their original labels.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 1042 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026, checked 2026-10-28 11:30 AM EDT.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 28, 2026

Prepared at 6:23 PM EDT on October 28, 2026. This update uses the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 3:11 PM EDT today. The morning report above is preserved.

Afternoon recap

No verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations were available. We are looking at the new 3:11 PM bulletin against the morning’s 4:32 AM release. The morning’s “Today” periods are past and not comparable.

In the Hawk Channel, tonight’s winds are now near 10 knots. The morning bulletin had them decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Tonight’s seas are now 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 4 feet and occasionally to 5 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. The morning had them around 2 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday Hawk Channel winds are now 5 to 10 knots, up from near 5 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light, versus around 1 foot earlier. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, rather than just smooth.

In the Straits, tonight’s winds are northeast to east, whereas the morning had east winds. Tonight’s seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet and occasionally to 5 feet. The morning had 2 to 4 feet occasionally to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shifted from northeast 4 feet at 9 seconds to north to northeast 3 feet at 6 seconds.

Thursday Straits winds are northeast 5 to 10 knots, up from east near 5 knots. Seas are subsiding to 2 to 3 feet, versus 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is northeast 2 feet at 5 seconds, replacing north to northeast 3 feet at 10 seconds.

Florida Bay conditions for tonight and Thursday match the morning bulletin.

Tonight’s ride

Tonight in the Hawk Channel, northeast winds are near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 4 feet and occasionally to 5 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light chop. A slight chance of showers.

In the Straits, northeast to east winds are near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet and occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows north to northeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers.

Florida Bay tonight has northeast winds near 10 knots. Bay waters are a light chop. A slight chance of showers.

Thursday, October 29 outlook

Thursday in the Hawk Channel, northeast winds are 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop. A slight chance of showers.

In the Straits, northeast winds are 5 to 10 knots. Seas are subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shows northeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers.

Florida Bay on Thursday has northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers.

For planning from Molasses to Tennessee, the Gulf Stream edge was 10 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of October 27, 2026. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No reef-specific visibility or current readings are available for these areas.

No catch or bite data exists. The slight chance of showers on Thursday might affect surface activity. Thursday’s Straits seas subsiding to 2 to 3 feet look more manageable for offshore runs.

Evening forecast source

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 3:11 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.