Islamorada fishing report, October 30, 2026, gentle northeast breezes, seas 1 to 2 feet in Hawk Channel

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 30, 2026. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes are prevailing across the Florida Keys today. A high pressure system is expected to build north of the Carolinas by late Saturday. Breezes may freshen to moderate or fresh over the northern waters as that high sets up. The Hawk Channel looks manageable with seas 1 to 2 feet. The Straits are holding at 2 to 3 feet. No verified catches or on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:44 AM EDT on Friday, October 30, 2026.

Hawk Channel winds are north to northeast 10 to 15 knots early, becoming northeast to east. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are around 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected.

Florida Bay winds are north near 10 knots early, becoming northeast to east. Bay waters are a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected.

Straits of Florida winds are northeast 10 to 15 knots early, becoming northeast to east. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast to east 2 feet at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights. This is the average height of the highest third of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

From Molasses to Tennessee

No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas. The table below uses the general Hawk Channel forecast for planning.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station MLRF1 has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge was 10 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of October 27, 2026. Inside Hawk Channel: NE winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet.
Conch	No reef readings available today. Inside Hawk Channel: NE winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet.
Davis	No reef readings available today. Inside Hawk Channel: NE winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet.
Crocker	No reef readings available today. Inside Hawk Channel: NE winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge was 17 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 27, 2026. Inside Hawk Channel: NE winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tennessee	No reef readings available today. Inside Hawk Channel: NE winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 30, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
High	01:20	0.919
Low	09:50	0.049
High	15:17	0.496
Low	20:39	0.347

This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 80.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 30. It is a regional bay reading, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Species outlook

No verified catch or bite data was available. The outlook is based solely on the sea conditions: light to moderate chop in the Hawk Channel and 2 to 3 foot seas in the Straits today.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight, Hawk Channel winds are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except around 2 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, winds are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast to east 3 feet at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Florida Bay tonight has northeast to east winds near 10 knots. Bay waters are a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected.

Saturday brings northeast to east winds increasing to near 15 knots in the Hawk Channel. Seas are building to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, winds are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Saturday night, Hawk Channel winds are east 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, winds are east 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas are building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet due to a northerly swell. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Florida Bay on Saturday has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots late. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Sunday brings east winds near 15 knots in the Hawk Channel. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms. In the Straits, winds are east near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet due to a northerly swell. A chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected. The synopsis notes that Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be required at times between Saturday and Sunday. Shower chances peak Saturday night through Sunday night.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 30, 2026, at 4:44 AM EDT.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 30, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 30 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

This update was prepared at 11:30 AM EDT on October 30, 2026, using the NOAA Key West coastal waters bulletin issued at 10:22 AM EDT. It replaces the 4:44 AM bulletin used in the morning report. The main change is a shift in wind direction wording for this afternoon. The morning report listed north winds early in Florida Bay and northeast winds early in the Straits. The new bulletin specifies north to northeast winds across those areas now. Sea heights and wave details for tonight and Saturday remain identical to the morning forecast.

For this afternoon, the Hawk Channel has north to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast to east. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except around 2 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is present. Florida Bay has north to northeast winds near 10 knots, becoming northeast to east. Bay waters are a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is present. The Straits of Florida have north to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast to east. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: Northeast to east 2 feet at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is present.

For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, this is regional planning only. The Hawk Channel forecast applies to these waters. Winds are north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast to east. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is present. No new reef-specific visibility or current readings are available. The Gulf Stream position data from October 27, 2026, remains the most recent reference.

Tonight, the Hawk Channel has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except around 2 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is present. The Straits have northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: Northeast to east 3 feet at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is present. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds near 10 knots. Bay waters are a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is present.

Tomorrow, Saturday, the Hawk Channel has northeast to east winds increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are building to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is present. The Straits have northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: Northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is present. Florida Bay has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots late. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is present.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings to report. The tide table and water temperature above keep their original labels and data from the morning report.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 1022 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026, checked at 11:30 AM EDT.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 30, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT. This update uses the NOAA Key West coastal waters bulletin issued at 3:52 PM EDT on Friday, October 30, 2026. The morning report above remains valid for today’s completed conditions.

Afternoon recap

The new bulletin issued at 3:52 PM EDT replaces the 4:44 AM forecast. The morning report’s “Today” sections are now past and not comparable. For the overlapping periods, the numbers have shifted.

In the Hawk Channel, tonight’s seas are now 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. The morning bulletin had those western seas at around 2 feet. The nearshore chop is now described as a light chop, becoming a moderate chop. The morning forecast listed it as a light to moderate chop.

For Saturday in the Hawk Channel, winds are essentially unchanged at near 15 knots. The morning forecast said winds were increasing to near 15 knots. Seas remain building to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop, whereas the morning said becoming a moderate chop.

Saturday night in the Hawk Channel has changed significantly. Winds are northeast to east 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The morning bulletin had east winds 15 to 20 knots and seas of 2 to 3 feet. Showers are likely Saturday night, up from a chance in the morning report.

In the Straits of Florida, tonight’s wave detail is East 3 feet at 4 seconds. The morning bulletin listed Northeast to east 3 feet at 4 seconds. Winds are east 10 to 15 knots, dropping the “northeast to” descriptor from the morning version.

Saturday in the Straits sees seas of 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The morning bulletin had seas of 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is East 3 feet at 5 seconds.

Saturday night in the Straits brings seas of 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. The morning bulletin had seas building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet due to a northerly swell. The new bulletin removes the specific northerly swell attribution but keeps the height. The new bulletin adds a wave detail of Northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds.

Florida Bay tonight has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. The morning bulletin had winds near 10 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, up from a light chop.

Saturday in Florida Bay has winds near 15 knots. The morning bulletin said winds were 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots late. Bay waters are a moderate chop. The morning had a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop.

Saturday night in Florida Bay has winds 15 to 20 knots. The morning bulletin said winds were 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Bay waters are choppy. The morning bulletin said choppy, becoming a moderate chop. Showers are likely, up from a chance.

Tonight’s ride

Tonight, the Hawk Channel is manageable. Winds are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light chop, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

The Straits are stable. Winds are east 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: East 3 feet at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

Florida Bay will be a bit rougher than the morning forecast suggested. Winds are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains.

Saturday, October 31

Hawk Channel winds are northeast to east near 15 knots. Seas are building to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Straits of Florida winds are east 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave Detail: East 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Florida Bay winds are northeast to east near 15 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

For those planning trips from Molasses to Tennessee, note the Gulf Stream edge. It is 10 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of October 27, 2026. The general Hawk Channel forecast applies to these reefs. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings are available.

Saturday night is when the weather turns. Winds in the Hawk Channel and Florida Bay are 15 to 20 knots. Seas in the Hawk Channel are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Straits seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Showers are likely in the bay and the channel. The synopsis notes a high pressure system is developing over the eastern half of the United States. It will support moderate to fresh breezes across the Florida Keys waters this weekend.

Evening forecast source

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 352 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS52.KKEY.html

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.