Captain's Log — May 17, 2026

Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Water Temp: ~82-83°F nearshore reef
Tide: Low 3:48 AM (0.0 ft) → High 9:54 AM (2.3 ft) → Low 4:08 PM (-0.5 ft) → High 10:41 PM (2.5 ft)
Moon: New Moon +2 (2% illumination — still amplified tidal swing)
Sunrise: 6:37 AM | Sunset: 8:01 PM

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Afternoon Recap — What Happened

The east wind delivered exactly what the morning forecast called for: 15-20 knots by early afternoon, chopping up Hawk Channel and building the offshore Straits to a legitimate washing machine. The morning incoming tide was the day’s only play — and it played.

By the Numbers

Zone	Morning Call	Midday Verified	Afternoon Reality
Hawk Channel	E 10-15 kts → 15-20 kts, 2-4 ft	✅ On track, building by 10 AM	E 15-20 kts, 3-4 ft occ 5 ft PM
Florida Bay	E 15 → 15-20 kts, choppy	✅ Verified	E 15-20 kts, moderate to choppy
Bayside/Gulfside	E 15 kts, 2-3 ft (Marquesas 3-4 ft)	✅ On track	E 15-20 kts, 2-3 ft nearshore
Straits of Florida	E 15 kts → 4-6 ft occ 8 ft PM	✅ Verified offshore buildings	E 15-20 kts, 4-6 ft occ 8 ft
Straits Wave Detail	—	E 5 ft at 6 sec (PM forecast)	✅ East wind sea fully developed

Wind check at 4 PM: East winds confirmed 15-20 knots across all zones. Hawk Channel running moderate-to-choppy with seas holding 3-4 feet occasionally 5 feet. The offshore Straits built to 4-6 feet with occasional 8-footers—exactly as this morning’s “occasionally to 8 feet” wording warned. The Small Craft Caution was appropriate.

The new moon tidal amplification was the story today. The 3:48 AM low of 0.0 ft to 9:54 AM high of 2.3 ft was a 2.3-foot swing — substantial for Hawk Channel. Any anglers on the water by first light (6:37 AM) got the full benefit of the rising tide pushing clean water over the reef. The afternoon negative low of -0.5 ft at 4:08 PM was even more dramatic, exposing reef structure that rarely sees daylight.

Bite report: The morning incoming was productive for those who got out. Yellowtail on the chum slick in 40-60 ft produced well. Muttons responded to the amplified incoming tide. The morning went green, the afternoon went yellow. Smart call in the morning forecast to target the dawn-to-9:54 AM window.

Showers & thunderstorms: Scattered convection popped in the afternoon as forecast. Nothing organized or prolonged. The slight chance didn’t become a significant event for anyone back by lunch.

Did the Morning Call Hold?

Every element of the morning forecast verified:

1. Wind timeline: Dawn manageable (10-15 kts), midday building, 15-20 kts by afternoon ✅
2. Sea state: 2 ft dawn → 2-4 ft afternoon ✅
3. Morning bite window: The 3:48 AM → 9:54 AM incoming produced ✅
4. Small Craft Caution: Active all day ✅
5. Offshore warning: 4-6 ft occ 8 ft built as warned ✅
6. Showers/thunder: Scattered, not a washout ✅

Verdict

Factor	Rating
Conditions call accuracy	🟢 Excellent
Morning bite quality	🟢 Good
Afternoon fishability	🔴 Poor (as forecast)
Overall day	🟡 Half-day play

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Tonight — 9:00 PM to Monday Sunrise

The 4:25 PM NOAA evening forecast confirms the east wind regime holds through tonight. Here’s the detailed breakdown as we head into Monday.

Synopsis

High pressure centered just north of Bermuda continues to promote slowly freshening mainly east to southeast breezes. Breezes will remain moderate to fresh through at least Tuesday before slowly slackening.

The evening forecast adds one key detail: winds peak tonight/tomorrow morning before slowly slackening late Monday and into Tuesday. The pressure gradient is at its tightest right now.

Zone-by-Zone Tonight

Zone	Wind	Seas	Weather
Florida Bay	E near 15 kts early → E 15-20 kts overnight	Moderate chop → choppy	Chance showers, slight chance t-storms
Bayside/Gulfside (Craig Key to 7 Mile)	E near 15 → 15-20 kts	2-3 ft, 3-4 ft occ 5 ft west of Marquesas	Chance showers, slight chance t-storms
Hawk Channel (All zones)	E near 15 → 15-20 kts	2-4 ft occ 5 ft, choppy	Chance showers, slight chance t-storms
Straits of Florida (Inshore 20 NM)	E 15-20 kts	4-6 ft occ 8 ft	Chance showers, slight chance t-storms
Straits of Florida (20-60 NM)	E 15-20 kts	4-6 ft occ 8 ft	Chance showers, slight chance t-storms
Gulf of America (Dry Tortugas)	E near 15 → 15-20 kts	2-4 ft occ 5 ft	Chance showers, slight chance t-storms

Wave Detail (Straits): East 5 feet at 6 seconds. Fully developed easterly wind sea. The 6-second period means the waves are steep and tight — not long-period groundswell, but consistent short-interval chop. This is what makes the ride bumpy.

Gulf Stream Position

(No change from NOAA May 12 analysis — next update expected later this week.)

• 4 NM SE of Molasses Reef Light — Key Largo
• 3 NM SE of Carysfort Reef Light — Ocean Reef
• 6 NM SE of Alligator Reef Light — Islamorada
• 7 NM SE of Sombrero Key Light — Marathon
• 6 NM S of Sand Key Light — Key West
• 35 NM S of Dry Tortugas Light — Loggerhead Key

The Stream remains pinned tight to the upper Keys. Still one of the closest positions of the spring. If you can get through 4-6 ft seas, there’s quality bluewater 6 NM off the reef.

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Monday, May 18 — Tomorrow’s Outlook

Synopsis

Same high pressure regime, but the gradient starts to relax late in the day. Monday is Sunday’s hangover — rough start, improving finish.

Timeframe	Wind	Seas (Hawk Channel)	Seas (Offshore)	Rating
Dawn (6:37 AM - 9 AM)	E 15-20 kts	3-4 ft occ 5 ft, choppy	4-5 ft occ 6 ft	🟡 Tougher window
Late Morning (9 AM - Noon)	E 15-20 kts, beginning to ease	3-4 ft → 2-3 ft subsiding	4-5 ft → 3-5 ft	🟡 Marginal, improving
Afternoon (Noon - 5 PM)	E 15-20 kts → near 15 kts	2-3 ft, moderate chop	3-5 ft, easing	🟡 Better, still lumpy
Evening/Night	E 15-20 kts → near 15 kts	2-3 ft, moderate chop	3-5 ft, easing	🟡 Manageable

Zone-by-Zone Monday

Florida Bay:

• Wind: E 15-20 kts. Bay waters choppy.
• Weather: Chance showers, slight chance thunderstorms.
• Call: 🟡 Choppy. The bay takes the brunt of the east breeze. Tarpon in the passes will still be active, but casting in 15-20 kts is work, not pleasure.

Bayside/Gulfside (Craig Key to 7 Mile Bridge):

• Wind: E 15-20 kts.
• Seas: 2-3 ft (3-4 ft occ 5 ft west of Marquesas Keys).
• Call: 🟡 Rough west of Marquesas. The east fetch has 30+ NM to develop west of the Marquesas — that zone will be sporty all day.

Hawk Channel (Upper Keys — Ocean Reef to Craig Key):

• Wind: E 15-20 kts.
• Seas: 3-4 ft occ 5 ft early, subsiding to 2-3 ft.
• Call: 🟡 Marginal. Morning is rough. Improving through the day as the wind eases. Fish the late morning/afternoon outgoing tide window.

Hawk Channel (Mid Keys — Craig Key to 7 Mile Bridge):

• Wind: E 15-20 kts.
• Seas: 3-4 ft occ 5 ft early → 2-3 ft.
• Call: 🟡 Same story. Morning lumps, afternoon improvement.

Hawk Channel (Lower Keys — 7 Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal):

• Wind: E 15-20 kts.
• Seas: 3-4 ft occ 5 ft → 2-3 ft.
• Call: 🟡 Exposed to the east all day.

Straits of Florida (All zones, inshore 20 NM):

• Wind: E 15-20 kts.
• Seas: 4-5 ft occ 6 ft early → 3-5 ft occ 6 ft late.
• Wave Detail: Northeast to east 6 feet at 6 seconds — wind-driven, steep, no groundswell component.
• Call: 🔴 Rough. A 24’+ boat can handle it. Smaller boats stay inshore or wait for Tuesday.

Straits of Florida (20-60 NM out):

• Same as above. 4-6 ft early subsiding to 3-5 ft.
• Call: 🔴 Big water. Leave it for the sportfishers.

Gulf of America (Dry Tortugas / Rebecca Shoal):

• Wind: E 15-20 kts.
• Seas: 2-4 ft occ 5 ft. Wave Detail: East 4 feet at 5 seconds.
• Call: 🟡 Marginal. The Tortugas will be lumpy but not as rough as the Straits side. Still a bumpy ride.

Monday Tides

Time	Height	Direction	Best For
~5:55 AM	0.5 ft (Low)	Slack after outgoing	Daybreak setup
5:55 AM - ~11:15 AM	Rising 0.5 → 1.6 ft	Incoming	Best bite window
~11:15 AM	1.6 ft (High)	Peak incoming	Top of the push
~11:15 AM - ~5:30 PM	Falling 1.6 → 0.4 ft	Outgoing	Afternoon outgoing
~5:30 PM	0.4 ft (Low)	Negative low	Late push
~5:30 PM - ~11:45 PM	Rising 0.4 → 1.7 ft	Night incoming	Night bite potential

The new moon amplification is fading (2.3 ft swing Sunday → 1.2 ft swing Monday), but the tide is still moving more water than a typical neap day. The late-afternoon negative low at 0.4 ft means good outgoing structure exposure. Fish the seaward edges of the reef during the outgoing push (11:15 AM → 5:30 PM).

Monday Bite Windows

Window	Time	Tide Phase	Fish Activity	Verdict
Dawn front	6:37-9 AM	Early incoming	Good, but rough seas	🟡 Tough conditions
Late morning incoming	9 AM-11:15 AM	Building incoming	Good, wind easing	🟡 Fishable
Afternoon outgoing	11:15 AM-5:30 PM	Falling to negative low	Good structure exposure	🟢 Best opportunity
Late afternoon ease	3-5 PM	Late outgoing	Bite picks up	🟢 Pick your spot

The afternoon outgoing tide (11:15 AM onward) is actually the better play Monday — the wind should be easing by then, the outgoing current pushes bait off the structure, and seas will have subsided from the morning peak.

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The Week Ahead

Day	Wind	Hawk Channel Seas	Offshore Seas	Rating
Mon 5/18	E 15-20 → near 15 kts	3-4 ft → 2-3 ft	4-6 ft → 3-5 ft	🟡 Improving PM
Tue 5/19	E near 15 kts	2-3 ft	3-5 ft occ 6 ft	🟢 Good
Wed 5/20	E 10-15 kts	1-3 ft	2-4 ft occ 5 ft	🟢 Good
Thu 5/21	E near 10 kts	1-2 ft	2-3 ft	🟢 Very Good
Fri 5/22	E/SE near 10 kts	1-2 ft	2-3 ft	🟢 Very Good

Pattern Call

The easterly trade wind regime peaks tonight and Monday morning, then slowly relaxes. Tuesday marks a noticeable improvement as east winds drop to near 15 knots across the board. Wednesday through Friday shape up to be textbook spring conditions — 10-15 knot east/southeast breezes, 1-3 foot seas in Hawk Channel, and manageable 2-4 foot offshore conditions.

The new moon tidal amplification fades through the week as we move toward the first quarter moon (May 21). Tidal swings shrink from 1.2 ft Monday to under 1 ft by Thursday. The strong tide advantage we had this weekend is gone by midweek, but wind conditions will be much more comfortable.

Key difference from last week: The offshore Gulf Stream run becomes more practical by Wednesday-Thursday. With east winds near 10 knots and offshore seas at 2-3 feet, the run to the edge (4-6 NM) becomes a pleasant trip rather than a survival exercise.

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Captain’s Monday Call

The bottom line: Monday is Sunday’s leftover. The east wind will still be blowing 15-20 knots at dawn with Hawk Channel running 3-4 feet occasionally 5 feet. Not a pretty morning. But unlike Sunday, the wind slowly eases through the day. By late afternoon, we’re looking at east winds near 15 knots, subsiding seas at 2-3 feet, and a manageable moderate chop.

Strategy for those who need to fish Monday:

1. Sleep in if you can. The early morning Monday will be the roughest part of the day. Wind still fresh at 15-20 knots, seas still lumpy from overnight. There’s no dawn advantage like there was Sunday.
2. Fish the afternoon outgoing tide. The 11:15 AM high → 5:30 PM low outgoing pushes bait off the reef. By noon the wind is beginning to ease. By 2-3 PM you’re looking at manageable conditions and active fish.
3. Stay on the reef in 40-60 ft. Don’t push offshore. The offshore Straits will be 3-5 feet occasionally 6 feet even as they ease. The reef offers better shelter and the outgoing tide will be moving bait.
4. Florida Bay is your Monday friend. East 15-20 knots across the bay is manageable. Tarpon in the passes, trout on the grass. The lee side of the islands will be calmer than Hawk Channel.
5. Bigger boats (28’+): Monday afternoon is your window. Fish the outgoing on the reef from 1-5 PM. The 2-3 foot Hawk Channel seas and easing wind are fine for a 28’ center console.
6. Smaller boats (under 22’): Tuesday is your day. Wait one more day and you get east winds near 15 knots with 2-3 foot seas. The difference between 15-20 and 15 knots is the difference between a beating and a pleasant day.

If you can wait, wait. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday all look better than Monday. But if Monday is your only day, fish the afternoon outgoing tide (1-5 PM) on the reef and you’ll connect. The fish don’t care about the wind — they care about the moving water. And the outgoing tide will be moving.

Pattern outlook: We’re past the peak of this easterly wind event. Every day this week gets better. Thursday and Friday look like prime spring fishing days. Plan accordingly.

Tight lines, — Captain Kit Carson

Report based on NOAA Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:25 PM EDT Sunday, May 17, 2026. Tide predictions for Islamorada (Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay). Moon phase: New Moon +2 (May 17). Gulf Stream position courtesy NASA SPoRT and RTOFS via NWS Key West (May 12 analysis). Water temperature estimates from nearshore buoys and NOAA buoy data.