Captain's Log, June 4, 2026, Rough Conditions, Tight Windows

Thursday, June 4. The front that scraped through yesterday has settled in. Expect breezy northeast to east winds 10-15 knots all day, with seas at 2-3 feet in Hawk Channel and 3-4 feet (occasionally 5) in the Straits. The wind is gusting to 20-22 knots and there’s a solid chance of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon.

The fish don’t care, though. Right now the offshore bite is as good as it’s been all year.

The headlines

• Wind: NE-E 10-15 kts, gusts to 20. Rough but manageable in the right boat.
• Seas: 2-3 ft Hawk Channel, 3-4 ft (5 ft occasionally) in the Straits. East swell 3 ft at 5 seconds.
• Air temp: 81°F at dawn, heat index already 88°F by 6 AM
• Water temp: 80-82°F reef-wide (June normal)
• Pressure: 30.01” and steady
• Tides: Low 5:49 AM, High 12:45 PM (1.71 ft), Low 7:42 PM (-0.11 ft)

The big story: mahi invasion

The Keys Weekly fishing report dropped and it confirms what we’ve been seeing. The mahi bite is exceptional right now. Cow mahi in the 25-35 lb range are common, with fish pushing 50-65 lbs coming over the rail. The rough weather has pushed them tight to the reef edge. Boats running out of Islamorada are finding them working under black birds off Alligator and Davis, within 4-6 miles, not the 15-20 mile run you’d expect this time of year.

This is the best inshore mahi bite in recent memory. If you’ve got a window and a boat that can handle the 3-4 ft chop, run. The fuel cost is minimal because they’re close.

Reef report: Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Tennessee

Molasses Reef (Upper Keys)

NE-E wind 10-15 kts puts the worst chop right on the reef. The lighthouse breaks some wind on the southwest side, but this is the roughest of the bunch today. The Stream edge sits just 2 NM southeast, the closest Gulf Stream access in the Keys on paper, but the 3-4 ft seas in the Straits make running that edge a wet ride. Morning only. If you’re set on Molasses, anchor the lee side and don’t push the run.

Conch Reef (off Key Largo)

Better shelter from NE wind than Molasses. The deep ledge at 60-90 ft holds amberjack and mutton, and the building east wind pushes clean water over the structure. Live pinfish on the deep edge for AJs. The 2-3 ft Hawk Channel seas are manageable here, since Conch’s structure runs perpendicular to the fetch and the lee side is protected. Worth the run if you’re launching from Key Largo.

Davis Reef (off Islamorada)

The half-day honey hole today. Fifteen minutes from Whale Harbor. The structure cuts enough of the chop that 2-3 ft seas are manageable. The 40-60 ft outside edge is your target for yellowtail. With NE-E wind at 10-15 kts and a building incoming toward 12:45 PM, the chum slick holds tight to the reef edge. Lighter chum program with #6 Mutu hooks, 20 lb fluoro. Davis has been producing limits.

Half-day play: On the water by 7 AM. Work the 30-50 ft edge on the incoming. Yellowtail steady through 11 AM. The mahi are holding near the color change off the edge, so keep an eye for black birds working the 60-80 ft break. If you see diving terns, don’t hesitate.

Crocker Reef (off Upper Matecumbe)

Less pressure than Alligator or Davis. The structure at Crocker runs parallel to the wind today, which actually helps. The chum slick stretches along the reef face and the fish stay in the zone. Mutton at 50-70 ft on the incoming edge. Cero on the inside flat at 20-35 ft. Crocker’s a sleeper today while everyone bunches up at Alligator.

Alligator Reef (Islamorada standard)

The lighthouse shields the southwest side from the NE wind, and that’s your setup point. NE-E at 10-15 kts runs parallel to the reef line, which keeps the chum tight. The incoming toward 12:45 PM is where the money is.

Alligator game plan:

• Morning (7 AM to 12:45 PM): Incoming tide. Set up on the southwest side of the lighthouse in 45-60 ft. Yellowtail on the incoming, a steady bite reported by every boat that hit it this week. When the tide peaks at 12:45, the bite drops off.
• Afternoon: The outgoing is weak (1.71 ft high to -0.11 ft low) and the wind stays up. If you’re still out after noon, slide inside to 20-35 ft for cero on the dropping tide. The wind-driven chop makes the structure uncomfortable.
• Offshore option: The color change runs 6-8 NM off Alligator, and that’s where the mahi are stacked. The 3-4 ft seas in the Straits are a wet 20-minute run each way, doable but uncomfortable. In a 28+ ft boat it’s fine. In a 24-footer, take your time.

Tennessee Reef (off Long Key)

The wild card. At 18-20 NM from Whale Harbor, Tennessee is the farthest run, but the structure is exceptional: 60-120 ft deep, big mutton on the edge, big AJs on the structure, and this is where the mahi have been staging. The reports of cow mahi in the 50-65 lb class are coming from the boats making this run.

The catch: NE-E at 10-15 kts with 3-4 ft seas on the run back. In a 26-32 ft boat, Tennessee is viable. In anything smaller the return trip will be slow and wet. Fuel cost is the constraint, not safety.

Tennessee verdict: If you have a 30+ ft boat, run Tennessee. The fishing is worth it. If you’re in a 24 ft center console, Davis, Alligator, and Crocker with an eye on the offshore edge is the smarter call.

Tides (Thursday, June 4)

Event	Time (EDT)	Height	Notes
Low	5:49 AM	0.60 ft	First light low
High	12:45 PM	1.71 ft	Midday high, weak swing
Low	7:42 PM	-0.11 ft	Evening negative low
High	1:51 AM (Fri)	0.95 ft

The tide swing is 1.71 ft, modest for June. But the evening low at -0.11 ft means the outgoing pushes harder than it looks. The negative low concentrates bait at the bridges and channels.

Critical windows:

• First light to 7 AM: Post-low incoming. The flood builds through the morning toward the 12:45 PM high. This is the premium bite window for reef species.
• 12:45 PM to 7:42 PM: A long outgoing, nearly 7 hours, toward a negative low. The current builds through the afternoon. That hurts the reef bite but helps the bridge bite in the evening.
• 7:42 PM to dark: Negative low. Tarpon and snook concentrate at the bridges. Channel 5 and Snake Creek are the calls.

Species outlook

• Yellowtail snapper: GOOD (morning incoming). The 8 AM to 12 PM incoming bite at Davis and Alligator is still as productive as last week. Lighter chum on the weaker tide swing. 1-1.5 oz sinker, #6 Mutu, 20 lb fluoro. Limits have been the norm.

• Mahi mahi: EXCELLENT. This is the headline. Mahi have pushed tight to the reef edge, working under black birds at 4-8 miles off Alligator and Tennessee. Bulls 25-35 lbs are common, with cows pushing 50-65 lbs confirmed this week. The rough weather has stacked them up. If you’re comfortable in 3-4 ft seas, this is a once-in-several-years window. The S.A.F.E. data and tagging efforts are showing real results.

• Mutton snapper: GOOD (deep edge). Mutton at 60-90 ft on the deep edge of Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee. Fresh ballyhoo chunks. The incoming pushes them onto the structure. Building NE wind doesn’t bother them at depth.

• Cero mackerel: GOOD. Inside reef at 20-35 ft on the incoming. Crocker and Davis shallows. The NE wind ripple helps mask the approach. Light chrome jigs on 15 lb leader. First 2 hours of incoming (7-9 AM).

• Blackfin tuna: MODERATE. Pre-dawn edge of the color change. The 3-4 ft seas make finding the bite harder, but the fish are there. The early window (6:30-7:30 AM) at the color change outside Alligator is the only realistic shot.

• Amberjack: MODERATE. Deep structure at Alligator and Conch at 80-120 ft. Live pinfish on 60-80 lb leader. Morning bite on the incoming. The wind doesn’t stop AJs from chewing.

• Tarpon: MODERATE. The 7:42 PM negative low is the story here. The -0.11 ft flushes the bridges. Channel 5 and Long Key Bridge are worth a drift in the evening. Moon is at 88% illumination (Waning Gibbous, 4 days after Full), good nighttime feeding conditions.

Weekend outlook

Friday (June 5): NE-E winds 10-15 kts, seas 2-3 ft Hawk Channel, 3-4 ft Straits. Showers likely with thunderstorms. Rough again but no worse than today. The chop stays manageable if you stay inside the reef.

Saturday (June 6): NE-E winds 10-15 kts decreasing. Seas 2-3 ft, improving. The storm chance drops to “slight” by Sunday. The weekend cleans up. If you’re waiting for the best window, Saturday afternoon through Sunday is trending up.

Sunday (June 7): E winds 10-15 kts, seas 1-2 ft. Slight chance of storms. Now we’re talking. Sunday morning is shaping up as the best day of the week.

Overall assessment

Rating: 5/10 (Hawk Channel, morning) · 7/10 (offshore mahi, morning) · 3/10 (afternoon)

For the reef fisherman: A 5/10 morning. The incoming bite at Davis and Alligator is reliable. You’ll get limits of yellowtail if you work the 8 AM to noon window. After noon, the wind and tide work against you.

For the offshore guy targeting mahi: A 7/10 day despite the conditions. The mahi are stacked on the reef edge at 4-8 miles. You don’t need to run 20 miles. You need a boat that can handle 3-4 ft seas and the willingness to take a wet ride. The fish are there.

What’s worth it:

• Mahi on the reef edge, the best inshore mahi showing in years
• Yellowtail at Davis and Alligator on the incoming
• Cero on the inside reef in the morning
• Evening tarpon at Channel 5 on the negative low tide

What’s not:

• Afternoon reef bite, where the outgoing tide and building wind shut it down
• The Straits run for tuna, where 3-4 ft seas make it a chore
• Small boats under 24 ft in Hawk Channel after noon

Game plan for today:

• 6:30 AM: Launch. First light.
• 7:00 AM to 9:00 AM: Inside reef for cero at Crocker or Davis shallows. Light jigs.
• 9:00 AM to 12:00 PM: Slide to the reef edge at 45-65 ft at Davis or Alligator. Yellowtail on the incoming. Keep an eye out for black birds working offshore.
• 12:00 PM to 1:00 PM: If you see mahi signs, make the run to the color change (4-6 miles off), 20 minutes each way through 3-4 ft seas. Worth it.
• 1:00 PM: Back to the dock before the wind peaks and the afternoon storms develop.
• 7:00 PM to 9:00 PM: If you have energy left, Channel 5 for tarpon on the negative low tide.

Captain’s advice: The wind is the story but the mahi are the headline. If you’ve got a solid boat and a strong stomach, this is one of those weeks where the conditions are rough but the fishing is exceptional. The reef edge mahi bite, bulls 25-35 lbs and cows pushing 50-65, is not something I’d tell you to skip.

If your boat is under 24 ft, stay inside the reef. The yellowtail bite at Davis and Alligator is good enough that you don’t need to run offshore. Pick your poison: comfortable yellowtail on structure, or wet mahi on the edge. Both are on the table today.

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Data sources: NOAA NDBC (SMKF1, MLRF1), NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT June 4, 2026, NOAA Tides & Currents station 8724580 (Key West), Keys Weekly Fishing Report

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Sunrise 6:32 AM EDT · Sunset 8:07 PM EDT · Moon: 88% illumination, Waning Gibbous (4 days after Full Moon)

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Midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

Fresh NOAA data from the 10:18 AM forecast update. Conditions are tracking close to this morning’s call, with a few tweaks.

What changed

Factor	Morning (4:26 AM)	Midday (10:18 AM)	Verdict
Wind direction	NE-E	NE-E, with a partial E-to-SE shift this afternoon in Hawk Channel	Slight clocking eastward, favorable
Wind speed (Hawk Channel)	10-15 kts	10-15 kts, with “E to SE” specified this afternoon	On track
Seas (Hawk Channel)	2-3 ft	2-3 ft	Unchanged
Seas (Bayside/Gulfside)	1-2 ft	1-2 ft	Unchanged
Florida Bay	10-15 kts, light chop	NE-E 10 kts increasing to 10-15, light to moderate chop	Slightly lighter start then same
Rain/Storms	Scattered T-storms	Showers with chance of T-storms this afternoon, likely tonight	Same
Weekend trend	Sat 10-15, Sun 10-15 declining	Drier air moving in this weekend, breezes trending down	Better than earlier forecast

Key takeaways from the 10:18 AM update

1. Synopsis spot-on. The surface high and central Gulf trough setup is holding breezes moderate. New language about “uncertainty remains high” and “periods of higher breezes possible” is NOAA-speak for watching the gusty afternoon thunderstorms and not relying on the forecast holding perfectly.

2. Wind clocked a bit eastward. The Hawk Channel forecast now calls for “east to southeast” 10-15 knots this afternoon specifically. The morning had NE-E steady. The shift east is slight but it matters, since it takes the sharp edge off the fetch against the reef line. Not flat, but better than NE.

3. Rain chances look higher tonight. Showers “likely with a chance of thunderstorms” for this evening, bumping up from morning’s scattered call. If you’re targeting the negative-low tarpon bite at Channel 5 tonight (7:42 PM low), bring rain gear.

4. Weekend outlook improved a little. The 10:18 AM synopsis says: “Rain chances should trend downwards towards normal this weekend as drier air moves in and breezes trend slightly downward.” That’s a direct upgrade from what was expected yesterday. Sunday (June 7) is still your best window: 10-15 kts, 1-2 ft seas, slight storm chance.

On-water reality check (11:30 AM)

The morning crews have had a few hours on the water now. The NE-E wind at 10-15 kts is exactly what was called. Hawk Channel is manageable, 2-3 ft with an occasional 4-footer on the reef edge. The color change at 4-6 miles off Alligator is wet but doable. Boats coming back in at Davis and Alligator are reporting solid yellowtail limits on the incoming.

No surprises. No deterioration. Conditions are holding as forecast.

Afternoon caution

The 10:18 AM data stresses that the afternoon storm potential is real. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, and the wind stays up through the night at 15 kts. If you’re on the water right now, keep an eye on the western sky by 2-3 PM. Outflow boundaries from developing storms can flip the wind 180 degrees and spike gusts to 25+ kts for a bit.

Bottom line: the morning call still holds. The mahi are on the edge. The yellowtail are on the reef. Get out, get what you came for, and be back at the dock before the afternoon cells fire.