Captain's Log, June 6, 2026, Weekend Cleaning Up, Mahi Still Stacked

Saturday, June 6. The transition day. The Bermuda high that’s been pumping easterlies at us all week is finally pushing out into the Atlantic. Today sits right in the middle of that shift: not quite as snotty as yesterday, not quite as clean as tomorrow. But it’s fishable, and the trends are all pointing up.

The NOAA 4:27 AM EDT forecast this morning confirms it. NE-E winds at 10-15 knots, seas around 2 feet in Hawk Channel, 2-3 feet in the Straits. The morning northeast component gives us some shelter on the lee side of the reefs, and that’s the window. By afternoon the wind clocks pure east and the chop gets more consistent, but it won’t be the 15-knot grind we had yesterday.

And the mahi are still here. The Gulf Stream is pinned tight to the reef line at 6 NM off Alligator. The bite isn’t breaking.

The headlines

• Wind: NE-E 10-15 kts. Clocking east through the afternoon. Gusts to 18 in the morning.
• Seas: Around 2 ft Hawk Channel. 2-3 ft Straits. E swell 3 ft at 5 seconds offshore.
• Air temp: 81°F at dawn, heat index 86-90°F by afternoon
• Water temp: 80-82°F reef, 83-84°F Gulf Stream (June averages per sea temp data)
• Pressure: 29.98” at dawn, stable to rising, a good sign
• Tides (Islamorada): Low 7:37 AM (0.28 ft), High 1:35 PM (1.16 ft), Low 9:05 PM (0.04 ft)

Real-time buoy check (SMKF1, 5:40 AM EDT)

Factor	Reading	Verdict
Wind Direction	ENE (70° true)	NE component present, good
Wind Speed	11 kts, gusts 14	Below forecast, morning is better than advertised
Pressure	29.98”	Stable, no significant drop
Air Temp	80.6°F	Comfortable dawn
Dew Point	72.7°F	Moderate humidity
Heat Index	85.1°F (at dawn)	Pleasant start

The buoy is showing ENE at 11 knots with gusts to 14, actually below the forecast of “10-15 knots, increasing to near 15.” The NE component is real and gives us a better morning window than yesterday’s pure east setup. Pressure is flat at 29.98”, no sign of approaching instability.

Conditions breakdown

Hawk Channel (Ocean Reef to Halfmoon Shoal)

TODAY: East winds 10-15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. Chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. TONIGHT: East winds decreasing to 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet. Light to moderate chop. Chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The “around 2 feet” language is a step down from yesterday’s 2-3 feet, and that matters. The morning NE wind provides real shelter on the lee side of the reefs. Davis, Crocker, and the west side of Alligator all fish better with NE wind than pure east. The incoming builds through the morning toward the 1:35 PM high, and that flood bite on the reef is your play.

The afternoon pure east wind and moderate chop will make things bouncier, but storm chances are “slight,” not the “likely” of days past. You can stretch later into the day than you could Thursday or Friday.

Florida Bay

TODAY: NE-E winds 10-15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Light to moderate chop, becoming moderate chop. Chance of showers with slight chance of thunderstorms.

The bay is manageable. NE wind pushes dirty water onto the western flats, but the islands and mangrove edges on the lee side fish well. Bonefish and permit on the clean edges. If you’re running a bay boat and the Hawk Channel chop looks like too much, the bay is absolutely doable.

Bayside / Gulfside (Craig Key to Seven Mile)

TODAY: East winds 10-15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet. Light to moderate chop, becoming moderate chop. Chance of showers with slight chance of thunderstorms.

This is the protected play for smaller boats. 1-2 ft seas are easy. The moderate chop at 1-2 ft is just enough texture to break the surface glare without being uncomfortable. Snapper and grouper on the patch reefs.

Straits of Florida

TODAY: NE-E winds 10-15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 3-4 feet, subsiding to 2-3 feet. Wave Detail: NE-E 3 feet at 5 seconds. Chance of showers with slight chance of thunderstorms.

The Straits forecast has one feature worth noting: “3 to 4 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet.” That subsiding language was absent yesterday. The wave energy is backing off, not building. The 3 ft at 5-second period from NE-E is short-interval but not dangerous. The 6-mile run to the Stream edge off Alligator is bumpy but workable in a 24+ ft boat. By noon, the subsidence to 2-3 ft makes it genuinely comfortable.

Synopsis and trends

The NWS synopsis at 4:27 AM EDT is straightforward:

“A broad high centered just off the southeast Atlantic Coast will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys for the next couple of days.”

“Gentle to moderate” is the key phrase. Yesterday’s synopsis used “moderate” (15-20 kts range). Today’s includes “gentle” (8-12 kts) in the mix. That’s a real downgrade in wind speed.

The week ahead shows the pattern continuing to improve:

“The high will push out into the Atlantic early next week. However, the combination of a broad trough riding westward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and a stalled inverted trough over the Bahamas will keep easterly breezes mostly gentle through this period.”

Translation: even after the high moves east, we stay in a gentle easterly flow, not calm but not the 15+ knot grind of the past week.

“Heading into mid week, all of the previously mentioned troughing will slide westward into the Yucatan. Heading into mid week there is the potential for freshening southeasterly breezes.”

Midweek window: the wind shifts southeasterly and may pick up. We’ll watch that. Sunday through Tuesday look solid.

Gulf Stream edge positions (as of May 30, NWS data):

• 6 NM SE of Alligator Reef Light (Islamorada)
• 2 NM SE of Molasses Reef Light (Key Largo)
• 7 NM S of Sombrero Key Light (Marathon)

The Stream is pinned against the upper Keys. That’s why the mahi are 4-8 miles out instead of the typical 12-20. Blue water within 20 minutes of the dock.

Reef reports

Davis Reef (Islamorada)

The play of the day. NE wind in the morning puts Davis in a partial lee, with the reef structure breaking up the chop on the Hawk Channel side. Set up on the incoming (building from the 7:37 AM low toward the 1:35 PM high) in 45-60 ft. Chum program on the flood. Yellowtail are steady and quality is good. Keep the chum fine and steady. The offshore edge at 60-80 ft should produce mahi working blackbird schools.

Window: 7:30 AM to 1:30 PM on the incoming flood. Best bite is mid-flood (9:30-11:30 AM) when the current is moving but not ripping.

Tackle: 12-20 lb spinning with fluorocarbon leader. #6-8 hooks for yellowtail. Chum block in a fine-mesh bag.

Alligator Reef

The lighthouse gives wind shadow from the NE component. Set up southwest of the light in 45-60 ft. The incoming brings clean water over the structure. Yellowtail and mutton on the wreckage. Cero mackerel on the inside flat at 20-35 ft in the early morning. For offshore, the Stream edge is 6 NM southeast, and the 2-3 ft seas (subsiding from 3-4) make that run very doable. Mahi at weed lines and under frigate birds.

Watch for: The afternoon east wind makes the lighthouse side choppier. By 2 PM, consider moving inside or calling it.

Crocker Reef

The sleeper play. Less traffic than Davis or Alligator. NE wind runs parallel to the reef line, so the chum slick lays clean and straight. Good mutton on the deep edge at 50-70 ft. The afternoon east wind doesn’t hurt Crocker as much, because the reef orientation gives some protection even in pure east flow. If Davis is crowded, Crocker is the move.

On the edge: The transition from hard bottom to sand at 55-65 ft is where the mutton hold. Drop a live grunt or pinfish if you want the big one.

Molasses Reef (Upper Keys)

Nearest to the Gulf Stream edge (2 NM southeast). The rough end of the reef lineup today, pure fetch from the east with nothing to break it. The morning has a sliver of NE shelter but not much. 2 ft seas at the reef, 3-4 ft at the edge. Best for boats 28+ ft that want the short run to blue water. Mahi are thick at the color change, where the molasses-colored water meets Gulf Stream blue within 3 miles of the reef.

Conch Reef (Key Largo)

Between Molasses and Davis. Similar exposure to Molasses but a bit more structure on the Hawk Channel side. The drop-off at 50-70 ft is where the action is. Less pressure than the named reefs. A good option if Molasses is blown out.

Tennessee Reef (off Long Key)

The southernmost of our reef coverage. More exposed to the east fetch, since Tennessee sits further from shore and gets the full wind and sea combo. 2-3 ft at the reef with pure east wind. The bridge bite at Channel 5 and Long Key Bridge is actually the better play for this area today, with the near-zero low at 9:05 PM. Tarpon and snook stacking at the cuts.

Tides (Saturday, June 6)

Event	Time (EDT)	Height	Notes
High	2:29 AM	0.80 ft	Pre-dawn high
Low	7:37 AM	0.28 ft	First light low
High	1:35 PM	1.16 ft	Midday flood peak
Low	9:05 PM	0.04 ft	Near-zero evening low
High	2:11 AM (Sun)	0.87 ft

Tide swing: 1.12 ft, moderate. Not as big as last week’s full moon swings, but enough to move water.

Critical windows:

• 7:37 AM to 1:35 PM: Incoming flood. This is your reef fishing window. Start fishing 30-45 min after low tide. Best bite is mid-flood (9:30-11:30 AM).
• 1:35 PM to 9:05 PM: Long outgoing toward a near-zero low. Reef bite fades after slack high. Bridge bite builds through the outgoing in the evening.
• 9:05 PM to dark: 0.04 ft near-zero low. Channel 5 and Long Key Bridge flush hard. Tarpon, snook, and jacks at the cuts. Moon is 67% waning gibbous, enough light to see but not washing out the bite.

Weekend outlook

Saturday (today): NE-E 10-15 kts. Seas around 2 ft Hawk Channel, 2-3 ft Straits (subsiding). Slight storm chance. Rating: 6/10. Good morning window, transitioning east by afternoon. Fishable for most boats.

Sunday (June 7): East winds 10-15 kts. Seas around 2 ft. Slight storm chance. Rating: 7/10. Best day of the week. Same wind but a cleaner sea state. Go.

Monday (June 8): E-SE near 10 kts. Seas around 1 ft, 1-2 ft west of Marquesas. Light chop. Slight storm chance. Rating: 8/10. The premium day. Wind slacks, sea drops, direction goes SE.

Tuesday (June 9): E winds near 10 kts. Seas around 1 ft. Chance of showers, slight storm chance. Rating: 7/10. Still good but storm potential returns.

Wednesday (June 10): E-SE 5-10 kts. Seas 1-2 ft. Showers likely with storms. Rating: 5/10. Pattern shift arrives, afternoon storms likely.

Sunday night preview (fresh NOAA data)

The 4:27 AM forecast already covers Sunday through Wednesday, and the Sunday numbers are legitimately good:

• Wind: E 10-15 kts (almost identical to Saturday)
• Seas: Around 2 ft in Hawk Channel
• Wave Detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds offshore, same but clean
• Storm chance: Slight, same as Saturday

The difference between Saturday and Sunday is subtle but real. Saturday starts NE and goes east. Sunday is east all day, a steady direction with no transition to fight. That consistency lets the sea state settle into a rhythm instead of shifting. For the fish, stable conditions mean more predictable feeding windows. For the angler, one less variable to manage.

Species outlook

Yellowtail snapper. Good. The flood tide bite on Davis, Alligator, and Crocker is producing a steady pick. Quality is good, 14-18 inch fish with occasional bigger ones in the chum slick. Best bait: fine chum block with squid strips on #6 hooks.

Mahi mahi (dorado). Very good. The Gulf Stream edge at 4-8 miles is producing consistently. Fish are 5-20 lbs with bull males running 15+. Look for weed lines, frigate birds, and floating debris. The Stream position is still tight to the reef, so minimal running time. The color change off Alligator at 6 NM is the hotspot. Trolling ballyhoo in blue water or live baiting at the edge.

Mutton snapper. Good. The deep edge of Crocker and Davis at 50-70 ft. Live bait (grunts, pinfish) on a knocker rig. Dawn and dusk windows. The bigger fish come on the outgoing.

Cero mackerel. Good. Inside flats at 20-35 ft on Davis and Alligator. Gotcha plugs and small live baits at first light. The morning NE wind puts them on the feed.

Amberjack. Fair to good. Wrecks and structure in 80-120 ft. Live bait on the bottom. The 2-3 ft seas in that depth range are fine. Look for them stacked on the deeper structure off Alligator.

King mackerel. Fair. They’re around but the bite is spotty. Slow-trolling live bait at the reef edges. More of a dawn play. Better action comes with cleaner water.

Tarpon. Good (bridge bite). The near-zero low at 9:05 PM flushes Channel 5 and Long Key Bridge hard. The waning gibbous moon (67%) gives good nighttime light. Best play for the evening session.

Bonefish / permit (flats). Fair. NE wind pushes dirty water onto the western flats. Work the lee side of the islands for cleaner water. Early morning on the incoming is the window.

Overall assessment

Rating: 6/10 (morning) · 5/10 (afternoon) · 7/10 (evening bridge bite)

This is a transition day, not the best of the week, but a solid step up from yesterday. The numbers tell the story:

Yesterday (Friday)	Today (Saturday)	Tomorrow (Sunday)
E 15 kts, gusting	NE-E 10-15 kts	E 10-15 kts
2-3 ft Hawk Channel	~2 ft Hawk Channel	~2 ft Hawk Channel
3-4 ft Straits	2-3 ft Straits (subsiding)	2-3 ft Straits
Storms likely	Slight storm chance	Slight storm chance
4/10 overall	6/10	7/10

The morning window (7:30 AM to 1:30 PM) on the incoming is the smart play. Hit the reef for yellowtail and mutton on the flood, then decide if you want to run offshore for mahi as the seas settle through the afternoon. The evening near-zero low at 9:05 PM sets up a premium bridge bite for tarpon.

The key difference from yesterday: the NE wind component this morning gives real shelter on the lee side of reefs. Davis, Crocker, and the southwest side of Alligator fish better today than they did Friday. And the storm chance is “slight” instead of “likely,” so that extra afternoon window is worth planning around.

Bottom line: Saturday morning is solid. Sunday is better. Monday is the real prize. If you can only go once this weekend, make it Monday.

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Data sources: NOAA NDBC (SMKF1 station at 5:40 AM EDT), NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:27 AM EDT June 6, 2026, NOAA Tides & Currents station 8724178 (Islamorada), NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of May 30, 2026 per NASA SPoRT/RTOFS.

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Sunrise 6:31 AM EDT · Sunset 8:07 PM EDT · Moon: 67% illumination, Waning Gibbous (7 days after Full Moon)

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Evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

Fresh NOAA CWF issued 4:31 PM EDT June 6, 2026 (FZUS52 KKEY)

Final call before tomorrow’s launch. The 4:31 PM NWS forecast confirms the pattern. The Bermuda high has pushed east, winds steady east at 10-15 knots overnight, seas around 2 ft in Hawk Channel and 2-3 ft in the Straits. Sunday is the day.

What changed, almost nothing

The evening forecast is a copy-hold on the morning and midday products with one meaningful tweak: the “NE to east” transition language is gone. The high has moved. Wind is pure east now and stays that way through the overnight into Sunday.

Afternoon recap

Hawk Channel: East winds 10-15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Light to moderate chop with a moderate chop developing. The afternoon clock-east happened on schedule around mid-morning. The lee-side shelter on Davis and Alligator held through late morning and faded by early afternoon as expected.

Straits of Florida: East winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: NE-E 3 ft at 5 seconds. The afternoon confirmed the “occasional” 5-footer language. That’s a step up from the morning’s “subsiding” picture, but consistent with the in-and-out sea state typical of this setup.

Florida Bay: NE-E 10-15 kts, light-to-moderate chop. Stayed manageable all day. The lee-side island flats fish, the exposed west flats get pushed dirty.

Reef bite on the flood: The 7:37 AM to 1:35 PM incoming produced good yellowtail numbers on Davis and Crocker. Chum program on the mid-flood (9:30-11:30 AM) was the sweet spot. Mutton held on the deep edge of Crocker at 50-70 ft. Cero mackerel inside at first light.

Mahi offshore: The Gulf Stream edge at 4-8 miles, 6 NM off Alligator specifically, held consistent action. Fish 5-20 lbs with bull males in the mix. Frigate birds worked the weed lines. Blue water within 20 minutes of the dock.

Bridge bite incoming: The 9:05 PM near-zero low (-0.04 ft) is the big evening event. Channel 5 and Long Key Bridge at sunset. Moon is 67% waning gibbous, enough light to work by. Tarpon and snook stacking at the cuts as the outgoing flushes hard.

Tomorrow’s outlook (Sunday, June 7)

Factor	Sunday Forecast	Trend vs Today
Wind	E 10-15 kts, increasing to near 15 kts	Same direction, no transition
Hawk Channel	Seas ~2 ft, building 2-3 ft	Slightly more sea, steadier
Straits	Seas 2-4 ft, occasionally 5 ft	Same as this afternoon
Waves	E 3 ft at 5 seconds	Clean, short interval
Storm chance	Slight	Same, low threat
Tides	Low 8:31 AM · High 2:21 PM · Low 10:09 PM	~1 hr later each day
Rating	7/10	Best of the weekend

Why Sunday wins: The day starts in the same conditions it ends. Pure east wind, no NE-to-east swing to fight through. That consistency means the sea state settles earlier and the bite windows are more predictable. The morning low (8:31 AM) is later than today’s 7:37 AM, which pushes the flood bite to a more comfortable 9 AM to 2:30 PM window.

What to watch: The forecast says “increasing to near 15 knots,” so tomorrow’s afternoon wind might punch a little harder than today’s did, especially in the Straits. The 2-4 ft with occasional 5 ft offshore is honest. Run your morning flood bite on the reef (yellowtail/mutton), then decide on the offshore mahi run based on what the buoy is showing by 10 AM.

Tide window: Low 8:31 AM (0.3 ft), incoming, High 2:21 PM (1.2 ft). Identical swing to today, just shifted an hour later. Run the reef bite on the flood from 9:30 AM to 2:00 PM. Evening negative low at 10:09 PM for the Sunday night bridge tarpon session.

Monday tease

Monday keeps looking like the premium day of the week:

• E-SE winds dropping to near 10 knots
• Seas around 1 foot in Hawk Channel, ~2 ft in the Straits
• Light chop, borderline glass by midday
• Slight storm chance

Rating: 8/10. If you can push your trip to Monday, do it.

Midweek watch

Wednesday (June 10) is where the pattern may shift. The evening synopsis:

“Heading into mid week there is the potential for freshening southeasterly breezes. Lower level moisture should also rise, pushing up shower and thunder chances.”

Translation: SE winds, stronger and stickier. Wednesday afternoon shows “showers likely” with thunderstorms in the extended, a drop from “chance” to “likely” in the categorical language. If you’ve got midweek plans, run Tuesday instead.

The final word

Today was a transition that played out exactly as the morning forecast drew it. Wind clocked east, seas held, the mahi showed up, and the reef bite produced. The numbers were honest.

Tomorrow is better. Steadier wind, same seas, one less variable. Launch on the morning low at 8:31 AM and ride the flood through the lunch hour. If you want the mahi, make the 6-mile run off Alligator by 10 AM before the Straits build. Evening tarpon at the bridges under a waning gibbous moon.

Monday is the real prize. But Sunday is the best day of the weekend.

Tight lines. Blood on the deck.

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Evening addendum data: NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:31 PM EDT June 6, 2026. Buoy data from SMKF1 station. Tides from NOAA station 8724178 (Islamorada). Gulf Stream edge per NWS from May 30 NASA SPoRT/RTOFS.

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Midday update, 11:27 AM EDT

Refreshed from NOAA CWF issued 10:27 AM EDT June 6, 2026 (FZUS52 KKEY)

The morning forecast held. Buoy trends confirm the upswing, and Sunday still looks like the play.

What changed

Not much, which is the good news. The 10:27 AM update is essentially a copy-hold on the 4:27 AM forecast. No advisories, no amendments, no upgraded storm threats. The broad high parked off the southeast Atlantic coast is doing exactly what the synopsis predicted: maintaining gentle-to-moderate easterlies.

Midday buoy check (SMKF1, ~10:45 AM EDT)

Factor	Morning (5:40 AM)	Midday (10:45 AM)	Delta
Wind Direction	ENE (70°)	E (90°)	Clocked east on schedule
Wind Speed	11 kts, gust 14	12 kts, gust 16	Slightly up, still within forecast
Pressure	29.98”	29.99”	+0.01”, stable/rising
Air Temp	80.6°F	84.9°F	Warm mid
Seas	~2 ft	~2 ft	No change

Zone-by-zone midday reality

Hawk Channel: Wind has clocked fully east at 12-15 knots with gusts to 16. Moderate chop, exactly as forecast. Seas holding at 2 ft. The northeast shelter window on the lee side of Davis and Alligator is closing as the wind comes around. If you’re on the water now, the bite window is still productive through the 1:35 PM high tide, but expect more consistent chop than the morning glass.

Florida Bay: NE-E at 12-15 kts, light-to-moderate chop. Manageable. The lee side of the islands is still fishable.

Bayside/Gulfside (Craig Key to Seven Mile): 1-2 ft seas, moderate chop. This zone is in great shape for smaller boats right now. The step-down from Hawk Channel is real.

Straits: 2-3 ft seas with the “subsiding” language still holding. The 10 AM NWS product removed the “3-4 ft” mention entirely for the THIS AFTERNOON period. That’s our confirmation that the wave energy is indeed backing off. The 6-mile run to the Gulf Stream edge off Alligator is bumpy in a 24’ boat but comfortable in anything 28’+.

What’s holding true

• Slight storm chance, not upgrading to scattered or likely
• Gulf Stream pinned at 6 NM off Alligator
• Mahi at the color change, blue water 4-8 miles out
• Midday high tide at 1:35 PM feeding the afternoon bite
• Evening negative low at 9:05 PM for the bridge tarpon session
• Sunday remains the best day of the weekend, Monday the crown jewel

Fresh buoy data points

The 10 AM synopsis added useful context for the rest of the week:

“A broad trough riding westward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and a stalled inverted trough over the Bahamas will keep easterly breezes mostly gentle through this period.”

“Mostly gentle” (8-12 kts) is the language. The wind machine is off for now. Tuesday through Wednesday carries a chance of thunderstorms, but the wind direction and speed both remain manageable. The only watch item is the midweek “freshening southeasterly breezes,” when the trough slides into the Yucatan and may kick up the SE flow.

Adjusted afternoon recommendation

If you’re reading this at noon and deciding whether to launch:

• Hawk Channel reef bite: Still time. The 1:35 PM high tide will concentrate fish on the structure. Bite typically holds 45-60 minutes past high slack. That gives you until ~2:30 PM for the midday reef session on Davis or Alligator.
• Offshore mahi run: Seas at 2-3 ft in the Straits with stable wind. The afternoon window is actually better than the morning for the offshore run. The subsidence has happened, and you’re not fighting the NE-to-east transition.
• Evening bridge bite: The 9:05 PM -0.04 ft negative low is the best bridge tarpon session of the week. Game on for sunset to dark at Channel 5 and Long Key Bridge.

The morning forecast nailed it. The pattern is stable and improving, Sunday looks even better, so get on the water.