Captain's Log, June 7, 2026, Sunday Funday, Best Day of the Weekend

Sunday, June 7. This is the day we’ve been waiting for. Saturday was a transition. Today is settled. The Bermuda high has pushed east, the NE-to-east wind clock is done, and we’ve got pure east wind at 10-15 knots with no fussing around. Same sea state as the last few days, but steadier, and steady matters more than flat when you’re reading water.

The 5:52 AM NOAA forecast this morning confirms what the evening addendum telegraphed: east winds 10-15 knots, seas 1-2 feet in Hawk Channel, 2-3 feet in the Straits. The chance of showers and slight storm chance are “mainly early,” with the morning instability burning off by mid-day. The Gulf Stream edge has shifted slightly to 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light (per the June 6 NWS survey).

The mahi are still here. The reef bite is building on the incoming flood. This is your day to get offshore.

The headlines

• Wind: East 10-15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Pure east, no transitions.
• Seas: 1-2 ft Hawk Channel, 2-3 ft Straits. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds.
• Air temp: 81°F at dawn, climbing to mid-80s by afternoon
• Water temp: ~80-81°F reef edge (June averages), 83-84°F Gulf Stream
• Pressure: 29.93-29.94” at dawn. Stable, no significant change last 24 hours.
• Storm threat: Slight chance, mainly early morning. Clearing trend by late morning.

Real-time buoy check (SMKF1, Sombrero Key, 5:30 AM EDT)

Factor	Reading	Verdict
Wind Direction	ENE (60° true)	NE component fading to pure east
Wind Speed	6 kts, gust 8	Way below forecast, lighter than advertised
Pressure	29.94”	Stable all night
Air Temp	81.5°F	Standard June dawn
Dew Point	78.1°F	High humidity
Heat Index	89.8°F	Already climbing at dawn
Sea State (WVHT)	No data (sensor out)	n/a

The buoy is showing ENE at 6 knots, well below the 10-15 knot forecast. Overnight the wind was 12-15 knots from ENE (1-4 AM range), but it dropped significantly around 5 AM as the morning calm set in. This tells us the morning window is even better than the forecast suggests. By the time the sea breeze kicks in (10-11 AM), it’ll build back toward the 10-15 knot range, but the morning start is flat.

The pressure trace is important: 29.93” all night with zero meaningful change. Stable air mass, no trough approaching. That “mainly early” storm language in the forecast gets a vote of confidence from the pressure data.

Conditions breakdown

Hawk Channel (Ocean Reef to Halfmoon Shoal)

TODAY: East winds 10-15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly early. TONIGHT: East to southeast winds near 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Moderate chop, becoming a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The “1 to 2 feet” language is the key improvement. That’s the lower range of what NOAA gives for Hawk Channel. Yesterday’s “around 2 feet” is now “1 to 2 feet.” That’s half a foot less textured water. For the reef bite, that means the chum slick holds cleaner and the fish see you coming from further away. Leader shyness increases in glassy conditions.

The “light to moderate chop” language is another step down from “moderate chop.” The morning is genuinely mellow. The afternoon build to “near 15 knots” and “moderate chop” will make things bouncier but not uncomfortable.

Morning window (6:00-11:00 AM): Clean. Light chop, 1-2 ft seas, building but not breaking. The flood tide bite on the reef kicks off around 11 AM with the incoming water.

Straits of Florida

TODAY: East winds 10-15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: East 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly early. TONIGHT: East to southeast winds near 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: East 3 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The 2-3 foot Straits forecast with 3 ft at 5-second period from the east is standard June. Short-interval wind chop, not dangerous, but bumpy enough in a sub-24 ft boat. The key is the Gulf Stream edge at 10 NM off Alligator. That’s a 15-20 minute run at planning speed in a center console. Blue water and clean bottom contours.

The evening product shows 2-4 feet subsiding to 2-3, the same pattern we saw yesterday. Seas build through the afternoon wind, then settle as the wind drops. The 10-mile run is worth it. Fish are stacked.

Florida Bay

TODAY: East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly early.

Pure east wind in Florida Bay is not ideal for the west-facing flats. They get wind-chopped and the water pushes dirty. But the east-facing lee sides and mangrove edges fish clean. The islands between Islamorada and the Everglades give you plenty of options. Look for bonefish and permit on the clean edges, with redfish and snook tighter to the mangroves.

Bayside / Gulfside (Craig Key to Seven Mile)

TODAY: East winds 10-15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly early.

The 1-2 ft seas and moderate chop in this zone mean small boats have options. The patch reefs inside the bayside produce steady snapper and grouper action. If Hawk Channel is too sloppy for you by afternoon, tuck inside and work the structure between Craig Key and the Seven Mile Bridge.

Synopsis and pattern

The NWS 5:52 AM synopsis:

“A broad high centered just off the southeast Atlantic Coast will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys for the next couple of days.”

Same broad high, same story. But here’s the difference from yesterday’s synopsis:

“While the ridge will stretch out into the Atlantic early this week, it will also be reinforced by a new high moving off the Atlantic Coast, holding gentle to moderate easterlies.”

“Reinforced by a new high.” That’s the new piece. A second high pressure system is moving off the Atlantic Coast to backstop the existing ridge. That’s why the forecast stays cleaner through early this week. Double-high setups mean stable air and consistent direction with minimal storm development.

The mid-week caveat:

“Uncertainty picks up heading into mid week. All guidance points to a robust trough migrating westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Winds are expected to shift southeasterly and should stay gentle to moderate, but could vary quite a bit depending on the exact behavior of the trough. Overall, moisture will increase, along with greater confluence, resulting in increasing shower and thunderstorm activity.”

Translation: enjoy Sunday through Tuesday. Wednesday is the inflection point. The trough from the northwestern Caribbean brings SE flow and higher moisture, and storms become more likely. Wind stays manageable but the rain chance ramps up.

Gulf Stream edge positions (as of June 6, NWS data from RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST):

• 10 NM SE of Alligator Reef Light, off Islamorada
• 7 NM SE of Molasses Reef Light, off Key Largo
• 14 NM S of Sombrero Key Light, off Marathon
• 12 NM S of Looe Key, off Big Pine Key
• 13 NM S of Sand Key Light, off Key West
• 47 NM S of Dry Tortugas Light, on Loggerhead Key

The Stream edge shifted slightly from yesterday’s June 5 reading: Alligator was at 6 NM, now 10 NM. That’s a 4-mile shift south, still very close, not the typical 12-20 mile distance. Blue water within 20 minutes of the dock on a 24’ center console.

Reef reports

Davis Reef (Islamorada)

The play for today. The steady east wind puts Davis in good position. The reef runs north-south and breaks the easterly chop on the Hawk Channel side. The incoming tide (building from the 10:53 AM low toward the 3:47 PM high) pushes clean Atlantic water over the structure. Set up on the southwest side of the reef in 45-60 ft.

The chum program on the flood: Fine-ground chum in a mesh bag, steady trickle. The clean 1-2 ft morning means the chum slick stretches long and straight. Yellowtail will come up the slick tight to the boat, and the lighter the leader, the better the bite. #6-8 hooks, 15-20 lb fluorocarbon leader, squid strips or threadfin chunks.

Mutton on the deep edge: 60-75 ft. Live grunts or pinfish sent to the bottom on a knocker rig. The bigger fish come through on the outgoing but the incoming produces steady action.

Window: 11 AM - 4 PM (incoming flood to early outgoing). Best bite: mid-flood (12:30-2:30 PM).

Tackle: 12-20 lb spinning for yellowtail. 30-40 lb conventional for mutton on the deep edge.

Alligator Reef

The lighthouse remains an excellent structure, and with 10 miles to the Gulf Stream edge, it’s your launch point for the offshore run. Set up southwest of the light in 50-60 ft for the reef bite, or head straight southeast to the color change.

The two-zone strategy:

1. Reef (8-11 AM): Yellowtail, cero mackerel, and mutton on the structure. The tide is outgoing from the 4:33 AM high through the 10:53 AM low, so the morning bite (8-10 AM) is late outgoing, not morning flood.

Here are the tide windows for Alligator:

8:00-10:53 AM: Late outgoing toward low. The water draining off the reef concentrates fish on the structure. Cero mackerel inside at 20-35 ft. Mutton on the deep edge. The outgoing typically produces bigger mutton but the yellowtail pick can slow.

11 AM - 3:47 PM: Incoming flood, your best yellowtail window. Fish move up on the reef and chase the chum. Mid-flood (12:30-2:30 PM) is the bite window.

After 3:47 PM: Slack high transition. The bite fades for 45 min then builds again on the outgoing evening session.

The morning east wind (lighter than forecast per buoy data) makes the lighthouse run comfortable. From the lighthouse, point southeast for 10 miles to the color change.

Cero mackerel inside: The inside flat at 20-35 ft at first light (6:30-8:30 AM). Gotcha plugs and small live baits. The cero run has been reliable.

Crocker Reef

The quiet play. Less boat traffic than Davis or Alligator. The east wind orientation is workable, and Crocker has decent structure that knocks down the chop. The deep ledge at 55-70 ft is where the mutton stack.

Crocker vs Davis decision:

• Pick Crocker if you want solitude, fewer boats on the chum slick, and you’re targeting mutton on the deep edge.
• Pick Davis if you want the yellowtail numbers game and the social anchor spread, but watch for other boats.

The edge between hard bottom and sand at Crocker at 50-65 ft holds good mutton year-round. Live bait presentations beat cut bait. A grunt on a knocker rig with just enough weight to feel bottom.

Molasses Reef (Key Largo)

The closest reef to Gulf Stream blue water at 7 NM. More exposed to east wind, since Molasses sits further from shore and catches the full fetch. 1-2 ft seas at the reef in the morning, building through the day. Best for boats 26+ ft that want the shortest possible offshore run.

The color change at 7 NM produces consistent mahi. The molasses-colored bottom water meeting Gulf Stream blue creates a plankton and weed line that the mahi hold on. Frigate birds are your best indicator. If you see them working, don’t slow down, just pull in and chunk.

Conch Reef (Key Largo)

Between Molasses and Davis. Similar exposure to Molasses but with more Hawk Channel structure. The drop at 50-70 ft is the money zone. Less traffic than the named reefs. Good fallback if Molasses is crowded.

Tennessee Reef (Long Key)

The southernmost reef in this coverage. Full east wind exposure with no structure buffer. The reef itself breaks the sea but the sides catch the full fetch. Better for afternoon sessions when the wind clocked east and settled. The bridge bite at Channel 5 and Long Key Bridge is the better play for this area.

Tides (Sunday, June 7)

Event	Time (EDT)	Height	Notes
High	4:33 AM	1.4 ft	Pre-dawn peak
Low	10:53 AM	0.8 ft	Midday low, outgoing morning
High	3:47 PM	1.7 ft	Afternoon flood peak
Low	11:57 PM	0.2 ft	Late evening negative

Tide swing: 0.9 ft, modest but sufficient to move water on the reef.

Critical windows:

• 4:33 AM - 10:53 AM: Outgoing from pre-dawn high toward mid-day low. The reef bite in this window is a late-ebb affair. Big baits for mutton, clean presentations for wary fish.
• 10:53 AM - 3:47 PM: Incoming flood. This is your reef fishing window. The flood pushes clean Atlantic water over the reef structure. Start chumming at 11:30-noon. Best bite is mid-flood (12:30-2:30 PM).
• 3:47 PM - 11:57 PM: Long outgoing toward evening negative. Slack high ~4:30-5:30 PM, when the bite shuts down briefly then builds. Evening bridge action.

Key difference from yesterday: The tide is about 1.5 hours later than Saturday. The flood bite starts at 11 AM instead of 9:30 AM. Plan accordingly.

Species outlook

Yellowtail Snapper: Good. The incoming flood bite on Davis, Crocker, and Alligator (12:30-2:30 PM) is the play. Clean 1-2 ft seas keep the chum slick tight. Go light on the leader, because the clear morning water means they can see 30 lb test. Fine chum block, #6 hooks, squid strips.

Mahi Mahi (Dorado): Very good. Gulf Stream edge at 10 NM off Alligator (7 NM off Molasses). The double-high pressure setup means clean blue water with minimal weed line drift. Fish are 5-20 lbs. Look for frigate birds working the color change. Troll ballyhoo to locate them, then live chum to keep them at the boat. Bull males run 15-18 lbs.

Mutton Snapper: Good. Deep edge of Crocker and Davis at 50-70 ft. Late outgoing and early incoming windows. Live grunts on a knocker rig. The outgoing window (8-10 AM) produces the bigger fish.

Cero Mackerel: Good. Inside flats at 20-35 ft on Davis and Alligator. First light (6:30-8:30 AM). Gotcha plugs in green/chrome or small live baits free-lined.

Amberjack: Fair to good. Wrecks and structure in 80-120 ft. The 2-3 ft seas in that depth are comfortable. Live bait to the bottom on a heavy leader. Wrecks off Alligator and Davis.

King Mackerel: Fair. They’re in the area but the bite is spotty, since warmer water pushes them deeper. Slow-troll live bait at the reef edges. Early morning or late afternoon. Better on the incoming.

Tarpon: Good (bridge bite). The outgoing through the afternoon builds toward the 11:57 PM low. Channel 5 and Long Key Bridge. Best session is sunset-to-dark (8:07 PM onward). The near-full moon (June 7 is 1 day before Last Quarter, 58% illumination) provides good darkness contrast.

Bonefish / Permit (Flats): Fair. Pure east wind pushes dirty water onto the western flats. Work the lee side of islands for cleaner water. The early outgoing (6-9 AM) before the flats get wind-chopped is the window. Permit better in the afternoon on the clean bank edges.

Snook / Redfish (Backcountry): Good. Mangrove edges and island lee sides. The east wind pushes bait tight to the shorelines. D.O.A. shrimp and live pinfish on the mangrove points.

Weekend outlook

Day	Wind	Seas	Storm Chance	Rating
Today (Sun)	E 10-15 kts	1-2 ft HC, 2-3 ft Straits	Slight (AM only)	7/10
Mon (Jun 8)	E-SE near 10 kts	~1 ft HC, 1-3 ft Straits	Slight	8/10
Tue (Jun 9)	E 10-15 kts	1-2 ft HC, 2-3 ft Straits	Chance storms	6/10
Wed (Jun 10)	E-SE 10-15 kts	1-2 ft HC, 2-3 ft Straits	Showers likely, storms	5/10

Monday (June 8): Still the premium day of the week. E-SE winds drop to near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot in Hawk Channel, borderline glass. Wave detail: E-SE 2 ft at 5 seconds in the Straits. Storm chance remains slight. If you can push to Monday, do it.

Tuesday (June 9): Still good, but the storm chance moves from “slight” to “chance.” East winds 10-15 knots, wind clocking east. The trough from the Caribbean hasn’t arrived yet but you can feel it building.

Wednesday (June 10): Pattern shift. The robust trough from the northwestern Caribbean Sea starts influencing our weather. Winds shift SE and moisture increases. “Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms” is a categorical step up from “chance.” Run Tuesday instead.

Why today wins

Sunday is the best day of the weekend for a few reasons.

1. No wind transition. Saturday had the NE-to-east clock. Today is pure east from start to finish. Steady direction gives you a predictable sea state and consistent bite windows.

2. Lighter than advertised. The SMKF1 buoy at 5:30 AM showed 6 knots with gusts to 8, well below the 10-15 knot forecast. Even when the sea breeze builds, this morning start is a gift.

3. The double-high setup. A second high pressure is reinforcing the existing ridge. That’s more stable air and less storm development, with cleaner offshore conditions than the first half of the week.

The practical window: launch by 9-10 AM. Fish the late outgoing and early incoming on the reef (mutton on the drop, transitioning to yellowtail on the flood as the tide turns). Run offshore around noon for mahi at the 10-mile edge. Come back in by 3-4 PM or fish the evening outgoing for tarpon at the bridges.

Overall assessment

Rating: 7/10 (morning) · 7/10 (offshore) · 6/10 (evening bridge)

Best day of the weekend, and one of the better days we’ve had in two weeks. The numbers:

Yesterday (Saturday)	Today (Sunday)	Tomorrow (Monday)
NE-E 10-15 kts	E 10-15 kts	E-SE near 10 kts
~2 ft Hawk Channel	1-2 ft Hawk Channel	~1 ft Hawk Channel
2-3 ft Straits	2-3 ft Straits	1-3 ft Straits
Slight storm chance	Slight (AM only)	Slight
Transition day	Steady state	Lightest day
6/10	7/10	8/10

The morning window is genuinely good. The buoy-backed lighter winds and 1-2 ft seas make for a comfortable start on the reef. The afternoon wind build will make the Straits run bumpier but not uncomfortable. The mahi are pinned to the 10-mile edge. The yellowtail are waiting on the flood tide.

So today and tomorrow are your days this week. Wednesday brings the Caribbean trough and the rain chances go up. If the coolers aren’t full by Tuesday evening, they might not fill until next weekend.

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Data sources: NOAA NDBC (SMKF1 station at 5:30 AM EDT), NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 5:52 AM EDT June 7, 2026, NOAA Tides & Currents station 8724178 (Islamorada) via TideTime.org, NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of June 6, 2026 per RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.

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Sunrise 6:31 AM EDT · Sunset 8:07 PM EDT · Moon: 58% illumination, Waning Crescent (1 day before Last Quarter)