Captain's Log, June 10, 2026, East Breeze, Reef Bite Still Open

Wednesday, June 10. We have a working day, not a postcard day.

NOAA Key West issued the morning marine forecast at 4:20 AM EDT, and the story is pretty simple. East to southeast breeze near 10 knots this morning, then 10 to 15 knots as the day gets some heat in it. Hawk Channel is around 2 feet. The Straits are 2 to 3 feet with an east 3 foot wave at 4 seconds. That short period matters. It makes the ride busier than the number looks.

The rain chance is real today. An easterly wave near western Cuba is dragging moisture across the Keys, with showers expected to peak this afternoon. That does not shut down the reef bite, but it does mean you fish with one eye on the sky. Rain is annoying. Lightning is a full stop.

At 5:40 AM EDT, Sombrero Key was showing southeast wind around 9 knots with gusts near 11. Long Key was southeast around 8 knots. That lines up with the forecast. No drama yet.

The quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 10 knots, building 10 to 15
Hawk Channel	around 2 feet, light to moderate chop
Straits	2 to 3 feet, east 3 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	light chop
Rain	chance of showers, slight chance of storms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 86.5°F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator, 7 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef morning, fair offshore

Wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

NOAA has Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge at east to southeast near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet. Nearshore waters start as a light chop and become light to moderate chop.

That is fishable for the reef line. Not slick calm, but workable. The important part is timing. The morning should ride better than the afternoon, and the afternoon is when the shower coverage peaks.

Straits of Florida

The Straits get east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet. NOAA wave detail is east 3 feet at 4 seconds.

Four seconds is short. You can run it, but it will slap. If you are going to check the Stream edge for mahi, make it a clean, short look. Do not turn a decent reef day into a wet punishment lap just because the blue water is not far away.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is east to southeast near 10 knots with a light chop. Tonight stays near 10 knots and light chop.

Backcountry and bay water are warm. The latest NOAA Vaca Key water temperature was 86.5°F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is Florida Bay, not the reef edge, so do not use it as a perfect bluewater number. But it tells the truth about the season. Warm water, early windows, clean presentations.

Tides for Wednesday, June 10

Whale Harbor Channel is the better tide read for the ocean-side Islamorada run today.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	4:41 AM EDT	1.25 ft	early high
Low	11:33 AM EDT	-0.06 ft	late morning low
High	5:36 PM EDT	1.35 ft	evening high

For the bay side, Upper Matecumbe Key has a smaller swing:

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	1:24 AM EDT	0.14 ft	overnight low
High	6:41 AM EDT	0.58 ft	morning high
Low	2:44 PM EDT	0.03 ft	afternoon low
High	7:53 PM EDT	0.39 ft	evening high

The ocean-side reef gets the best movement around the falling tide into the 11:33 AM low, then the incoming builds through the afternoon toward the 5:36 PM high. I like the first half of that better because the wind has not had all day to stack up and the storms should be less organized.

If you are snapper fishing, be set up early enough to catch the last of the outgoing and the turn. If the current dies, do not force the chum slick. Move or wait for the incoming to start breathing again.

Reef reports

Molasses Reef

Molasses has the shortest shot to the Gulf Stream edge, with NOAA placing it 7 NM southeast of the light as of June 6. The reef itself is exposed to an east and southeast breeze, so expect a little bump on the outside.

Yellowtail should be fair to good if the water stays clean. Fish the 45 to 65 foot line, keep the leader light, and do not overfeed them. The offshore option is tempting here because the Stream is close, but I would only make that move with clean radar and a visible reason, birds, weed, or a real edge.

Conch Reef

Conch is a solid pick for a mixed reef box. The 50 to 80 foot edge gives you room to work yellowtail up top and soak a bigger bait for mutton on the bottom.

The falling tide into 11:33 AM should help the bottom bite. If the current lays down around the turn, sit through it for a bit. Conch can go quiet, then wake back up when the first push of incoming water gets over the structure.

Davis Reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada play today. Shorter run, good structure, and no need to get heroic in the Straits.

Start in 40 to 60 feet. Yellowtail should be the main target, with cero mackerel moving through the chum if the water has enough life in it. Small hooks, light fluorocarbon, steady chum. If the wind builds after lunch, Davis is easier to leave than the farther reefs. That counts.

Crocker Reef

Crocker is the quieter mutton soak. Not flashy, but useful on a day where the weather may make everybody crowd the obvious spots.

Fish the deeper edge in 55 to 80 feet. Fresh ballyhoo chunks, live pinfish, or a lively grunt are worth the time. The falling tide is the first bite window. The incoming after the low can be good too, but watch the sky before you settle in for the afternoon.

Alligator Reef

Alligator is still the best all-around call from Islamorada. The lighthouse gives you structure, current breaks, yellowtail water, and a clean offshore decision point.

NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. That is close enough to check, but not close enough to ignore the sea state. Reef first. If the day stays clean and the ride looks honest, make the Stream check quick.

On the reef, fish 50 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mutton. Cero should be around the inside edge and lighthouse water. The outgoing into late morning is the cleaner setup.

Tennessee Reef

Tennessee is fishable, but it is not the first choice from Whale Harbor today. The run is longer, the afternoon breeze is expected to build, and showers can make that stretch feel longer than it is.

If you are already down the road, fish it early. Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are fair. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. For a full-day Islamorada boat, I would rather spend that time at Alligator or Crocker unless there is a specific reason to run.

Species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Davis, Alligator, Molasses in 40 to 70 ft
Mutton snapper	fair to good	Conch, Crocker, Alligator deep edge
Mahi mahi	fair	Gulf Stream edge only if radar and weeds line up
Cero mackerel	good	inside reef, lighthouse edges, active chum slicks
Mangrove snapper	fair	patch reef and bridge structure
Bonefish	fair	clean lee flats around tide changes
Permit	fair	patch edges and cleaner bay-side water
Tarpon	fair	bridge channels after dark

Yellowtail are the meat-and-potatoes play today. The reef water is fishable, the wind is manageable, and the tide gives you enough movement to work with.

Muttons get a fair to good grade because the current should move around the late morning low and the deeper edge is less bothered by surface chop. Put in time with a real bait. Do not expect every drop to get crushed.

Mahi are the gamble. The Stream is close, but 2 to 3 feet at 4 seconds and afternoon showers make it a conditional call. If you find clean weed, birds, or a color edge, great. If not, the reef is the smarter paycheck.

Captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis and Alligator are the cleanest calls from Islamorada. Crocker if you want to wait on a mutton. Molasses if you want the shortest offshore option, but do not let that tempt you into running past common sense.

The morning is the better window. Get set before the late morning low, fish through the turn, and keep the afternoon flexible. Today can put fish in the box. It can also punish lazy radar watching.

Midday addendum, 11:35 AM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:13 AM EDT. At 11:35 AM, the numbers have not moved much, which is useful in itself. The morning call is still holding.

Hawk Channel is still east to southeast near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas around 2 feet. Nearshore water goes from a light chop to a light to moderate chop as the afternoon fills in.

The Straits are still the busier ride. NOAA keeps the east to southeast wind near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail is east 3 feet at 4 seconds. Same short-period stuff. Fishable, but not friendly if you try to make a long run out of it.

The bigger midday note is the rain. NOAA now pins the afternoon shower and storm coverage to moisture around a Central American Gyre near the Yucatan Peninsula. That means the reef plan still works, but the sky matters more than the fish report after lunch. If thunder starts building, shorten the day or slide inside.

Tonight should ease a touch. The forecast has the breeze slackening overnight, with the moisture plume shifting west of the Keys marine zones and a drier pattern trying to set up through the weekend. For today, nothing got worse enough to change the call. Reef first, keep the offshore look short, and do not get stubborn with weather.

Evening addendum, 9:00 PM UTC

NOAA Key West put out the late afternoon coastal waters forecast at 4:34 PM EDT, and the evening read is about what we expected. The afternoon had moisture around, with the shower and thunderstorm coverage tied to that Central American Gyre near the Yucatan. That was the part of the day to respect. Fishable water, but not the kind of sky you ignore.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters going from a light to moderate chop to a light chop. The Straits are a little more work, east to southeast 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. NOAA’s wave detail has east to southeast 3 feet at 4 seconds. Short period again. Not ugly, just choppy enough to make a long run feel longer.

Florida Bay gets the softer side of it tonight. East to southeast 10 to 15 knots decreases to near 10 knots, with bay waters easing from a light to moderate chop to a light chop. There is still a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, so anyone running after dark should keep the radar honest.

Tomorrow looks like a better behaved fishing day. The high slides farther east into the North Atlantic overnight, the breeze slackens to light to gentle, and NOAA expects the deeper moisture plume to shift west of the Keys marine zones. For Thursday, Hawk Channel is east to southeast near 10 knots, with seas subsiding to around 1 foot. The Straits go east near 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and an east to southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds.

That keeps the reef as the first call again. Davis and Alligator should be in play early, especially if the water cleaned up behind the showers. Conch is worth a look if the current lines up. Yellowtail stay the practical target, with muttons worth a soak on the deeper edge when the water moves. The offshore mahi look is more reasonable Thursday than it was this afternoon, but I would still make it a look, not a mission, unless there is weed, birds, or a clean edge in front of the boat.

---

Data sources: NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:20 AM EDT, updated 10:13 AM EDT, and updated 4:34 PM EDT June 10, 2026; NOAA NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1 and Long Key station LONF1 observations at 5:40 AM EDT June 10; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key; NOAA Tides and Currents Vaca Key station 8723970 water temperature at 5:54 AM EDT June 10; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of June 6, 2026 using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.