Captain's Log, June 11, 2026, Light Breeze, Reef Window Open

Thursday, June 11. This is the kind of June setup where the reef deserves the first look.

NOAA Key West issued the morning coastal waters forecast at 4:19 AM EDT. The pressure gradient is backing off across the Keys, and the breeze is coming down with it. Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is east to southeast near 10 knots today with seas around 1 foot. The Straits are east near 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and an east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds.

That 4 second period still matters, even with a small number beside it. It is not a big sea, but it can be a quick little chop outside the reef. For most boats, the reef line is the better paycheck than trying to make a long offshore story out of a short-period sea.

At 5:40 AM EDT, the NOAA stations were lighter than the forecast. Sombrero Key was nearly calm, with a gust around 1 knot. Long Key was north around 1 knot with a gust around 5 knots. That does not mean the forecast is wrong. It means the morning started soft, and that is useful.

The quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 10 knots in Hawk Channel, east near 10 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters a light chop
Straits	seas 1 to 2 feet, east 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 10 knots, light chop
Rain	chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 86.5°F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator, 7 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look

Wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

NOAA has Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key, Craig Key through Seven Mile Bridge, and west toward Halfmoon Shoal all running east to southeast near 10 knots today. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are a light chop.

That is good working water for the reef. Not glass, not a mess. Just a fishable June morning with enough breeze to keep it honest.

The best part is that the forecast stays manageable into Friday and Saturday. The wind drops to 5 to 10 knots Friday, then stays light through the weekend. If the water cleans up and the current behaves, the reef bite should stay in play.

Straits of Florida

The Straits from Ocean Reef through the Lower Keys are east near 10 knots today. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. NOAA wave detail is east 2 feet at 4 seconds.

That is not a no-go offshore forecast. It is just not a free pass either. A short mahi look makes sense if you have birds, weed, or a hard color change in front of you. Running blind just because the Stream edge is close is how you burn fuel and come home salty for the wrong reason.

NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge, as of June 6, at 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close enough to matter. Still needs a reason.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is east to southeast near 10 knots with a light chop today. The latest NOAA Vaca Key water temperature was 86.5°F at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is warm water. Early and late are your friend on the flats and in the channels. Midday can still produce, but the best shallow-water work is usually when the light is lower and the fish are not cooking in skinny water.

Tides for Thursday, June 11

Whale Harbor Channel is the ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	12:07 AM EDT	0.20 ft	overnight low
High	5:39 AM EDT	1.28 ft	early morning high
Low	12:30 PM EDT	-0.19 ft	midday low
High	6:38 PM EDT	1.43 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	2:09 AM EDT	0.16 ft	overnight low
High	7:26 AM EDT	0.64 ft	morning high
Low	3:44 PM EDT	-0.07 ft	afternoon low
High	9:06 PM EDT	0.37 ft	evening high

For the reef, the falling tide into the 12:30 PM low is the first bite window. Be set before it gets too low. If the current slows around the turn, do not dump half the chum block trying to make dead water act alive.

The incoming after lunch should help, but the shower and thunderstorm chance matters more in the afternoon. If the sky starts building, shorten the plan.

Reef reports

Molasses Reef

Molasses gets the closest Stream edge in this forecast, with NOAA placing it 7 NM southeast of the light as of June 6. That makes it tempting, and some days that little look pays.

I would still fish the reef first. Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 65 feet if the water has some blue in it. Keep the chum steady, go light on the leader, and do not overfeed them. Cero can slide through the slick when the bait shows up.

If you do run outside, make it a quick check. Birds, weed, a color edge, or turn around.

Conch Reef

Conch is a good mixed-bag reef today. The 50 to 80 foot line gives you yellowtail in the slick and muttons on the bottom when the tide has some push.

The falling tide into midday is the cleaner setup. A live pinfish, fresh ballyhoo chunk, or a good grunt on the bottom is worth the wait. If the current gets lazy, reset instead of soaking bait in a dead lane.

Davis Reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada call. Short run, good reef structure, and easy to bail from if weather starts talking.

Start in 40 to 60 feet. Yellowtail are the main target. Mangroves are fair around the patchier structure, and cero mackerel should be around any clean chum line with bait in it. This is a good place to keep the day simple and put dinner in the box.

Crocker Reef

Crocker has a good mutton profile today because the sea state is not forcing everybody into one obvious spot. Fish the deeper edge in 55 to 80 feet and give the bait time to work.

The tide is the key. Falling water into the 12:30 PM low should be the first bite. The start of the incoming can be good too, especially if the water has stayed clean after the morning.

Alligator Reef

Alligator is still the best all-around Islamorada play. It has yellowtail water, mutton water, cero lanes, and the offshore decision point is close enough to check without making the whole day about it.

NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. Reef first. If the wind stays light and you see a reason outside, make the look. If not, stay put and fish the structure that is already under the boat.

Yellowtail should be good in 50 to 70 feet. Muttons are fair to good on the deeper edge. Cero should be around the lighthouse side if bait is moving.

Tennessee Reef

Tennessee is fishable today, especially compared with the last few windier days. The issue is not the condition. It is time and distance from Islamorada.

If you are already down that way, fish it early. Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are fair. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. From Whale Harbor, I would rather spend the best tide at Davis, Crocker, or Alligator unless there is a specific reason to run.

Species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Davis, Alligator, Molasses in 40 to 70 ft
Mutton snapper	fair to good	Conch, Crocker, Alligator deep edge
Mangrove snapper	fair	patch reef, structure, cleaner current
Cero mackerel	good	inside reef and active chum slicks
Mahi mahi	fair	short Stream look if weed, birds, or color show
Permit	fair	patch edges and cleaner bay-side water
Bonefish	fair	early flats around water movement
Tarpon	fair	bridge channels and evening current

Yellowtail are the main call today. The reef sea is manageable, the tide gives you movement, and the water is warm enough that a steady chum line should pull life if the clarity is there.

Muttons are worth a real soak on the deeper edge. Do not fish them like an afterthought. Put a good bait where it belongs and let the tide do some work.

Mahi are possible because the Stream edge is close, but possible is not the same thing as guaranteed. I would rather make a short, smart look than spend the day chasing empty water.

Captain’s call

Fish the reef. Davis if you want simple. Alligator if you want the best mix of options. Crocker or Conch if you want to wait out a mutton bite with a little more room.

The morning is the cleanest window. Fish the falling tide into midday, respect the thunderstorm chance, and do not let a small sea number talk you into a long offshore run with no sign.

Midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:09 AM EDT. The reef call still holds, but the Straits got a little more honest on paper.

Hawk Channel did not change much. NOAA still has east to southeast wind near 10 knots this afternoon, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters a light chop. Florida Bay is still east to southeast near 10 knots with a light chop. Same working water, same basic plan.

The Straits are the one place I would mark up from the morning read. The early forecast had east wind near 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet. The midday forecast now has east to southeast wind near 10 knots and seas 1 to 3 feet, with the same east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. That is not ugly, but it is enough to keep the offshore look short unless there is something worth chasing.

Rain chances stayed on the board too. NOAA keeps a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, then drops that to a slight chance tonight. If the sky starts stacking up over the reef, do not argue with it. Pick up, slide, or head in.

So the midday call is simple. Reef still good. Hawk Channel still fishable. Offshore is fair, but a little bumpier than the first pass made it sound.

Evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

The afternoon did not change the call much. NOAA’s latest Key West coastal waters forecast is still the 10:09 AM EDT package, and it keeps the Keys in that light east to southeast flow.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is east to southeast near 10 knots with seas around 1 foot and nearshore waters a light chop. The Straits are east to southeast near 10 knots with seas 1 to 3 feet and an east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. Florida Bay eases a little, east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots with smooth to light chop.

That means the reef was still the smart afternoon play. Enough water moving to keep yellowtail honest, and still enough push for a deeper mutton bait, but not enough reason to turn the whole day into a blind offshore run. The Straits number stayed fishable, but 1 to 3 feet at 4 seconds is still a short little chop. If you had a bird line or a good weed edge, fine. If not, the reef was paying better odds.

The rain story stayed plain too. NOAA kept a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight. It is June in the Keys. Watch the sky, watch the radar, and do not let one more drift talk you into sitting under weather.

Tomorrow’s outlook

Friday looks good for another reef first day.

Hawk Channel is forecast east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots with seas around 1 foot and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are forecast east at 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and an east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. Florida Bay is forecast east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots with smooth to light chop. NOAA keeps a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms around the waters.

I would start on the reef again. Davis and Alligator both make sense from Islamorada, with Crocker in play if you want to sit on a deeper edge. Yellowtail should stay in 40 to 70 feet, and a mutton bait is worth soaking when the current has some bite. The offshore look gets better Friday than it looked this afternoon, but it still needs a reason. If you see birds or a clean weed edge, take a look. Empty horizon, stay on the meat.

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Data sources: NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:19 AM EDT and updated 10:09 AM EDT June 11, 2026; NOAA NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1 and Long Key station LONF1 observations at 5:40 AM EDT June 11; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key; NOAA Tides and Currents Vaca Key station 8723970 water temperature at 5:54 AM EDT June 11; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of June 6, 2026 using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST; NOAA forecast retrieved again at 5:00 PM EDT June 11, 2026.