Captain's Log, June 12, 2026, Light June Wind, Reef Still Looks Right

Friday, June 12. The reef gets the first look again.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:17 AM EDT. The Atlantic high has slid farther east, the pressure gradient over the Keys is weaker, and the breeze has come down into a nice working range. Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is forecast east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots today, with seas around 1 foot and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop.

The Straits are also east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet. NOAA’s wave detail is east 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is not a big sea, but it is still short-period June chop outside the reef. Fishable, yes. Worth running blind into open water, no.

At 5:40 AM EDT, Long Key was east at about 8 knots with a gust around 9 knots. Sombrero Key was northeast at about 6 knots with a gust around 8 knots. Vaca Key in Florida Bay had water temperature at 86.9°F at 5:54 AM EDT.

The quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, smooth to light chop nearshore
Straits	seas 1 to 2 feet, east 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, smooth to light chop
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 86.9°F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator, 7 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look

Wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the best water on the board today. NOAA has the whole stretch from Ocean Reef to Halfmoon Shoal at east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and smooth to light chop nearshore.

That is comfortable reef water for most charter work. Not slick calm, but good enough to set up clean, keep a chum line working, and move if the current is wrong.

The forecast stays soft tonight and into Saturday. Tonight is east near 5 knots with seas around 1 foot. Saturday is east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, also around 1 foot. That gives the reef a little breathing room after the windier stretch earlier in the week.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are manageable, but they still need a reason. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet today. The wave detail is east 2 feet at 4 seconds.

That 4 second period is the part to respect. A 2 foot sea with no spacing can still slap you around once you get outside. If there is weed, birds, bait, or a color edge, a short mahi look makes sense. If there is no sign, the reef is the better job.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge, as of June 6, is 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close enough to check. Not close enough to make bad water fish itself.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots today, with smooth to light chop. Tonight drops to east near 5 knots and smooth water.

The bay water is warm. Vaca Key was 86.9°F at 5:54 AM EDT. Early and late matter in water that hot, especially for the flats and channels. Midday is still fishable, but the best shallow work usually comes when the light is lower and the tide is moving.

Tides for Friday, June 12

Whale Harbor Channel is the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	1:05 AM EDT	0.15 ft	overnight low
High	6:39 AM EDT	1.33 ft	morning high
Low	1:25 PM EDT	-0.31 ft	midday low
High	7:36 PM EDT	1.52 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	2:56 AM EDT	0.17 ft	overnight low
High	8:13 AM EDT	0.70 ft	morning high
Low	4:40 PM EDT	-0.16 ft	afternoon low
High	10:10 PM EDT	0.36 ft	late high

For the reef, the morning high sliding into the 1:25 PM low is the cleanest first window. Get set before the water gets too low. If the current quits near the bottom of the tide, move or wait it out instead of trying to force a dead slick.

The evening incoming is worth watching too. It is a good tide for a late snapper bite if the water stays clean and the sky behaves.

Reef reports

Molasses Reef

Molasses has the closest Stream edge in the NOAA forecast, 7 NM southeast of the light as of June 6. That makes the outside tempting, but the reef still comes first today.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 70 feet if the water has a clean edge to it. Keep the chum steady and the leader light. Cero mackerel can slide through the slick when bait stacks up, especially with that light east push.

If you poke outside, make it a look, not a lifestyle. Birds, weed, color, or go back to work on the reef.

Conch Reef

Conch should fish well for a mixed box. The 50 to 80 foot line gives you yellowtail in the slick and a real mutton chance on the bottom when the tide has some bite.

The falling tide into early afternoon is the main play. Fresh ballyhoo, a good chunk, or a live bait on the bottom is worth time here. If the current gets lazy, do not soak bait forever in dead water.

Davis Reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada call. Short run, plenty of structure, and easy to adjust if a shower starts building.

Start in 40 to 60 feet and let the chum tell you what kind of day it is. Yellowtail should be fair to good. Mangrove snapper are fair around the patchier stuff, and cero should be around any slick with bait in it.

This is the reef I would pick for a simple dinner trip.

Crocker Reef

Crocker gets interesting today because the sea state lets you sit and wait. Fish the deeper edge in 55 to 80 feet and give the bait time.

Muttons are fair to good if the current keeps moving. Yellowtail should be good when the water is clean. The trick is not overfeeding them. A steady slick beats dumping chum like you are trying to feed the whole reef.

Alligator Reef

Alligator is still the best all-around bet from Islamorada. Yellowtail water, mutton water, cero lanes, and a nearby offshore decision point, all in one neighborhood.

NOAA has the Stream edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. That is close enough for a quick check after you have a reason. I would not make the whole morning about it unless the signs are already there.

Yellowtail should be good in 50 to 70 feet. Muttons are fair to good on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel should be around the light and inside reef line if bait is moving.

Tennessee Reef

Tennessee is fishable today. From Islamorada, it is more about time than conditions.

If you are already working down that way, fish it early and keep the setup simple. Yellowtail are fair to good, mangroves are fair, and muttons are fair on the deeper edge. From Whale Harbor, I would rather spend the best tide at Davis, Crocker, or Alligator unless there is a real reason to run farther.

Species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Davis, Alligator, Molasses in 40 to 70 ft
Mutton snapper	fair to good	Conch, Crocker, Alligator deep edge
Mangrove snapper	fair	patch reef and structure with moving water
Cero mackerel	good	active chum slicks on the inside reef
Mahi mahi	fair	short Stream look if weed, birds, or color show
Permit	fair	patch edges and cleaner bay-side water
Bonefish	fair	early flats with tide movement
Tarpon	fair	bridge channels and evening current

Yellowtail are the main call. The sea is small, the wind is light, and the tide gives you enough movement to work with. That is the recipe.

Muttons are worth a real soak on the deeper edge. Do not treat them like a bonus bait tossed out behind the boat. Put a good bait in the right lane and let the tide do the talking.

Mahi are possible with the Stream edge sitting close to Alligator and Molasses, but possible does not mean automatic. A short look is fine. A blind fuel burn is not.

Captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis for simple. Alligator for the best mix. Crocker or Conch if you want to wait on a deeper mutton bite.

The morning falling tide is the best window, and the evening incoming is worth a second look. Watch the sky because NOAA still keeps a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms around the waters. Small numbers on the forecast do not cancel June weather.

For most boats out of Islamorada today, the smart play is reef, not heroics. Put the chum in clean water, keep the tackle light, and do not leave fish to go looking for a rumor.

Midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:22 AM EDT, and the story is mostly the same. That is good news. The wind did not jump. The reef did not get ugly.

Hawk Channel is still east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, with seas around 1 foot and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. Florida Bay is also east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, smooth to a light chop, with only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The only real tweak is offshore. The Straits are still east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, but NOAA now has seas around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet this afternoon. The wave detail is still east 2 feet at 4 seconds. So it is not worse in a meaningful way, but it is still short-period stuff outside the reef.

The synopsis stayed dry and quiet for June. NOAA keeps shower coverage low while a dry layer hangs in the lower atmosphere. For the rest of the day, the call does not change much. Reef first. If you slide outside, have a reason before you burn the fuel.

Evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:04 PM EDT. Same kind of day, just with the sun lower and the water laying down nice.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, with wave detail east 1 foot at 4 seconds. Florida Bay is east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots with smooth to light chop.

That is friendly water for June. The reef stayed the better call this afternoon because there was no need to gamble offshore without a real sign. Yellowtail, muttons, mangroves, and cero are still the right way to think about the evening bite. If the current kept moving on the incoming, the snapper bite had a real chance to keep working after the heat came off the day.

Tomorrow looks good again. NOAA has Saturday in Hawk Channel at east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits stay east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and wave detail east 1 foot at 3 seconds. Florida Bay drops to east to southeast near 5 knots with smooth water.

The bigger setup has not changed much. High pressure from the Southeast into the western North Atlantic keeps a light east to southeast breeze through Saturday, then the wind slowly turns more southeast to south for Sunday and early next week. NOAA also keeps shower coverage low while dry air hangs in the lower atmosphere.

For Saturday, start on the reef. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Conch all make sense. The Stream edge is still listed 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, so a quick outside look is fair if there are birds, weed, bait, or a color change. But the meat and potatoes plan is still reef first.

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Data sources: NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:17 AM EDT, updated 10:22 AM EDT, and updated 4:04 PM EDT June 12, 2026; NOAA NDBC Long Key station LONF1 and Sombrero Key station SMKF1 observations at 5:40 AM EDT June 12; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key; NOAA Tides and Currents Vaca Key station 8723970 water temperature at 5:54 AM EDT June 12; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of June 6, 2026 using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.