Captain's Log, June 13, 2026, Light Breeze, Clean Reef Window

Saturday, June 13. This is the kind of June morning where the reef gets honest.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:18 AM EDT. Light to gentle east to southeasterly breeze is the story across the Keys today. Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is forecast east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop.

The Straits are not ugly either. NOAA has east to southeast wind at 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and wave detail east 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is small water for June. It still deserves respect offshore, but the reef line should be comfortable for most boats that belong out there.

At 5:40 AM EDT, Molasses Reef was southeast at about 4 knots with a gust around 5 knots. Long Key was southeast at about 6 knots with a gust around 7 knots. Vaca Key in Florida Bay reported water temperature at 87.6°F at 5:54 AM EDT.

The quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, smooth to light chop nearshore
Straits	seas 1 to 2 feet, east 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 87.6°F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator, 7 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look

Wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the easy call today. NOAA has the full stretch from Ocean Reef to Halfmoon Shoal at east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and smooth to light chop nearshore.

That is good working water. You can set the boat without fighting it, keep a chum slick straight enough to read, and slide around if the current is wrong. It is not glass calm. It does not need to be.

Tonight stays friendly with the same east to southeast 5 to 10 knot wind and seas around 1 foot. Sunday backs down a touch with east to southeast wind near 5 knots and smooth nearshore water. If you are planning the weekend, today is good and Sunday looks clean too.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are fair. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and an east wave at 1 foot every 3 seconds.

That is a decent offshore look if the signs show up. Weed, birds, bait, a color change, or a clean edge would justify a run. Without that, the reef is the better business. Small seas do not make empty water worth burning fuel.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge, as of June 6, is 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close enough to keep in mind. Not a promise of fish.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is forecast east to southeast near 5 knots with smooth bay waters. Tonight stays southeast near 5 knots and smooth.

The heat is the part to watch. Vaca Key was 87.6°F before sunrise. In water that warm, early and late matter more than the middle of the day. Flats fish still eat, but they usually want moving water and lower light. Midday gets skinny fast when the sun is high and the water is hot.

Tides for Saturday, June 13

Whale Harbor Channel is the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	2:00 AM EDT	0.08 ft	overnight low
High	7:38 AM EDT	1.40 ft	morning high
Low	2:20 PM EDT	-0.40 ft	afternoon low
High	8:33 PM EDT	1.59 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	3:43 AM EDT	0.16 ft	early low
High	9:03 AM EDT	0.75 ft	morning high
Low	5:34 PM EDT	-0.22 ft	late afternoon low
High	11:07 PM EDT	0.35 ft	late high

For the reef, the high water early and the falling tide into 2:20 PM is the main window. Get set while the water is still high enough to move. If the current quits near the bottom, do not sit there wishing at it. Move, reset, or wait for the evening incoming.

The evening high at 8:33 PM is worth watching for snapper, especially if the water stays clean and the wind stays soft.

Reef reports

Molasses Reef

Molasses has the closest Stream edge in the NOAA forecast, 7 NM southeast of the light as of June 6. That makes the outside tempting, but the reef should be the first stop.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 70 feet if the water is clean. Start light, keep the chum steady, and do not overfeed the slick. Cero mackerel are a real possibility when bait pushes through.

If the outside edge has birds or weed, take a look. If it is blank, turn around before the fuel gauge starts telling the story.

Conch Reef

Conch should fish well on the falling tide. The 50 to 80 foot line gives you a good yellowtail setup and a fair mutton shot on the bottom.

The lighter wind lets you wait on the bite without getting beat up. That matters. A good bait on the bottom needs time, but dead current is still dead current. If it goes slack, change the angle or change the spot.

Davis Reef

Davis is the practical pick from Islamorada. Short run, easy adjustments, and plenty of good bottom when the sea is only around a foot in Hawk Channel.

I would start in 40 to 60 feet and let the current tell me how deep to go. Yellowtail should be fair to good. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure and patchier bottom. Cero should be around if the bait is nervous.

This is the clean dinner-trip reef today.

Crocker Reef

Crocker gets a good look with this forecast. Light wind, small seas, and a long falling tide give you time to fish it right.

Work the deeper edge in 55 to 80 feet for muttons. Yellowtail should be good where the water is blue enough and the current has some bite. Keep the chum consistent. Dumping it fast usually feeds everything except the box.

Alligator Reef

Alligator is the best all-around call. You get yellowtail water, deeper mutton lanes, cero traffic, and an offshore decision point without making the whole day complicated.

NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. A short outside check is fair if you see a reason. The reef itself should still be the plan.

Yellowtail should be good in 50 to 70 feet. Muttons are fair to good along the deeper edge. Cero mackerel should be possible near the light and inside reef line if bait is moving.

Tennessee Reef

Tennessee is fishable today. The forecast is not the problem. From Islamorada, the question is whether the run is worth the time.

If you are already pointed that way, fish it early and keep the setup simple. Yellowtail are fair to good, mangroves are fair, and muttons are fair on the deeper edge. From Whale Harbor, I would rather spend the best tide at Davis, Crocker, or Alligator unless there is a clear reason to keep sliding west.

Species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Davis, Alligator, Molasses in 40 to 70 ft
Mutton snapper	fair to good	Conch, Crocker, Alligator deep edge
Mangrove snapper	fair	patch reef and structure with moving water
Cero mackerel	good	active chum slicks on the inside reef
Mahi mahi	fair	short Stream look if weed, birds, or color show
Permit	fair	patch edges and cleaner bay-side water
Bonefish	fair	early flats with tide movement
Tarpon	fair	bridge channels and evening current

Yellowtail are the main target. The sea state is right, the wind is light, and the falling tide gives enough water movement to work with.

Muttons are worth a real soak on the deeper reef. Use a good bait and put it where the current naturally carries food. Do not treat it like a lucky rod in the holder.

Mahi are possible because the Stream edge is close to Molasses and Alligator. Possible is not automatic. Go look if the signs are there, but do not leave biting reef fish for a blue-water rumor.

Captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis if you want the simple run. Alligator if you want the best mix. Crocker or Conch if you are willing to wait on a deeper bite.

The falling tide from the morning high into the 2:20 PM low is the cleanest first window. The evening incoming should get another look if the sky stays quiet.

NOAA keeps only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, but it is still June in the Keys. Watch the clouds. Today gives us good water. Do the simple thing well, and make the fish prove you need a harder plan.

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Data sources: NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:18 AM EDT June 13, 2026; NOAA NDBC Molasses Reef station MLRF1 and Long Key station LONF1 observations at 5:40 AM EDT June 13; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key; NOAA Tides and Currents Vaca Key station 8723970 water temperature at 5:54 AM EDT June 13; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of June 6, 2026 using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.

Midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:17 AM EDT, and the water got a little easier than the morning call.

Hawk Channel is now east to southeast near 5 knots this afternoon, seas 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters smooth. This morning’s forecast had east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and smooth to light chop nearshore. That is not a big shift, but it is a cleaner reef window.

The Straits also came down. NOAA now has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots with seas around 1 foot and an east wave at 1 foot every 3 seconds. The morning forecast had the Straits at 1 to 2 feet. Offshore still needs a reason, meaning weed, birds, bait, color, or current edge. But the sea state is friendlier than it looked before sunrise.

Florida Bay stays about the same, east to southeast near 5 knots with smooth bay waters. The slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast, so keep an eye west and south instead of staring at the rod tips all afternoon.

For the rest of the day, the reef is still the best business. Davis, Crocker, and Alligator all get a better look with the wind easing. If the current keeps moving after the 2:20 PM Whale Harbor low, stay with it. If it dies, reset for the evening incoming instead of grinding dead water.

Midday data source: NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:17 AM EDT June 13, 2026.

Evening addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast again at 4:48 PM EDT, and the evening read stays friendly.

For the Islamorada side of the reef, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key is still the easy water. Tonight is forecast east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. There is only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, but it is June, so do not treat “slight” like “none.”

The Straits stay fishable too. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots tonight, seas 1 to 2 feet, and an east wave at 1 foot every 3 seconds. That is not a bad offshore sea state. It still needs signs before you burn the fuel. If the birds, weed, bait, or color change are not there, the reef is still the smarter money.

Florida Bay is quiet on paper tonight with variable wind near 5 knots becoming southeast and smooth bay waters. The warm water is still the issue back there. Early, late, moving water. That is the whole sentence.

Sunday outlook

Sunday looks clean.

NOAA has Hawk Channel east to southeast near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and smooth nearshore water. The Straits are forecast east to southeast 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and an east to southeast wave at 1 foot every 3 seconds. Florida Bay is southeast to south near 5 knots with smooth bay waters.

The ridge is weak, and NOAA expects the breeze to veer southeast to south late in the weekend into early next week. For Sunday, that gives us another reef-first day. Davis, Crocker, and Alligator should all be worth a look if the current has any life in it.

Yellowtail remain the best bet. Muttons are still worth soaking on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are a good side bet in a live chum slick. Mahi get a fair look only if the outside gives you a real reason.

Fish the morning clean. Watch the sky after lunch. If the reef is biting, do not leave fish to go hunting for a rumor.

Evening data source: NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:48 PM EDT June 13, 2026.