Captain's Log, June 14, 2026, Light Wind, Hot Water, Reef First

Sunday, June 14. The Keys got handed a soft one, but it is still June, and June makes you pay attention.

NOAA Key West issued the corrected coastal waters forecast at 5:37 AM EDT. The short version is light to gentle breeze across the Florida Keys through the middle of the week, with the wind veering more southerly by Monday. Shower chances stay very low in the bigger pattern, though NOAA still keeps a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the near-term waters today.

For the Islamorada reef run, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is forecast east to southeast near 5 knots today, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth. The Straits are about as friendly as they get on paper, east to southeast near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, with an east to southeast wave at 1 foot every 3 seconds.

At 6:00 AM EDT, Long Key was south at about 9 knots with a gust around 11 knots. Vaca Key in Florida Bay reported water temperature at 88.2°F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before breakfast. Fish it early, fish it clean, and do not waste a moving tide.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 5 knots forecast on the reef and Straits
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	seas around 1 foot, east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.2°F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator, 7 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look if the signs are real

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the easy water today. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and smooth nearshore waters from Ocean Reef down through Seven Mile Bridge.

That is good working water for yellowtailing and bottom fishing. You should be able to set up without the boat walking all over the anchor line. The trick is still current. Light wind does not mean good current, and good current is what makes the reef talk.

Tonight stays friendly with southeast to south wind near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and smooth nearshore waters. Monday looks even softer, with south to southwest wind near 5 knots and seas 1 foot or less.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are fair to good on sea state. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds.

That is not a hard offshore ride. It is also not a reason by itself to leave fish on the reef. The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to matter, but it still needs signs. Birds, weed, bait, a color break, or current edge. Without that, stay with the reef and put dinner in the box.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge, as of June 6, is 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is a useful number, not a guarantee.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is forecast southeast near 5 knots with smooth bay waters. Tonight goes south near 5 knots and stays smooth.

The bay is hot. Vaca Key was 88.2°F at 5:54 AM EDT. That pushes the better bite into low light and moving water. Flats fish can still eat in this heat, but the middle of the day gets thin fast when the sun gets high.

tides for Sunday, June 14

Whale Harbor Channel is the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	2:55 AM EDT	0.02 ft	overnight low
High	8:36 AM EDT	1.46 ft	morning high
Low	3:15 PM EDT	-0.46 ft	afternoon low
High	9:27 PM EDT	1.64 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	4:32 AM EDT	0.15 ft	early low
High	9:56 AM EDT	0.79 ft	morning high
Low	6:26 PM EDT	-0.25 ft	evening low
High	11:59 PM EDT	0.34 ft	late high

For the reef, the best first window is the falling tide after the 8:36 AM Whale Harbor high. That water drops hard into the 3:15 PM low. If the current has bite, stay with it. If it quits, do not sit there pretending the chum is magic.

The 9:27 PM ocean-side high gives the evening snapper crowd a clean second shot if the water stays settled.

reef reports

Molasses Reef

Molasses gets the cleanest outside temptation today because NOAA places the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of the light as of June 6. That is close enough to check if the surface gives you a reason.

The reef itself should be the plan. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 70 feet if the water is clean and the current is not dead. Cero mackerel are a good side bet in the slick. If the outside is empty, do not turn a reef day into a sightseeing bill.

Conch Reef

Conch should fish well on the falling tide. The 50 to 80 foot line is a good starting place for yellowtail and a fair mutton shot.

With light wind, you can wait out a bite without getting beat up. That helps, but only if there is water moving. If the boat lays wrong or the slick runs lazy, reset the angle before you blame the fish.

Davis Reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada pick today. Short run, good bottom, and easy adjustments if the first setup is wrong.

Start in 40 to 60 feet and let the current choose the rest. Yellowtail should be fair to good. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Cero mackerel should be around if bait shows up inside the reef line.

For a straight dinner trip, Davis makes plenty of sense.

Crocker Reef

Crocker gets a strong look with this forecast. Small seas and a long falling tide give you room to fish the edge right.

Work 55 to 80 feet for muttons and better yellowtail. Keep the chum steady. Do not dump half the bag because the first ten minutes are slow. That just teaches every small fish behind the boat that you are an easy meal.

Alligator Reef

Alligator is the best mix today. You have yellowtail water, deeper mutton lanes, cero traffic, and an offshore decision point without making the whole day complicated.

NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. A short look outside is fair if you see birds, weed, bait, or a color edge. But the reef should still be the main job.

Yellowtail should be good in 50 to 70 feet. Muttons are fair to good on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are a fair bet around the light and inside reef line when the bait is nervous.

Tennessee Reef

Tennessee is fishable today. The forecast is not the issue. From Islamorada, the run has to earn itself.

If you are already sliding west, fish it early and keep the setup simple. Yellowtail are fair to good. Mangroves are fair. Muttons are fair along the deeper edge. From Whale Harbor, I would spend the best tide closer to Davis, Crocker, or Alligator unless there is a clear reason to keep running.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Davis, Alligator, Molasses in 40 to 70 ft
Mutton snapper	fair to good	Conch, Crocker, Alligator deeper edge
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, patch reef, moving water
Cero mackerel	fair to good	live chum slicks near the reef line
Mahi mahi	fair	short Stream look only if birds, weed, or color show
Permit	fair	cleaner edges with moving water
Bonefish	fair	early flats before the heat stacks up
Tarpon	fair	bridge channels and evening current

Yellowtail are the main bet. The sea state is right, and the falling tide gives enough water movement to work with if the current sets up clean.

Muttons are worth a real soak on the deeper reef. Put a good bait where the current naturally carries food and leave it alone long enough to matter.

Mahi are possible because the Stream edge is close to Molasses and Alligator. Possible is not automatic. Go look if the signs are there. Do not leave biting reef fish for blue water that has not shown you anything.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis for the simple run. Alligator for the best mix. Crocker or Conch if you want to wait on a deeper bite.

The falling tide after the morning high is the first real window. The evening incoming gets another look around the 9:27 PM Whale Harbor high.

The water is hot, the wind is light, and the reef should give you a fair shot. Keep it simple. Make a clean set, read the current, and move when the ocean tells you the spot is done.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:16 AM EDT. The ocean did not get mean, it just leaned a little more south than the first read.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is now southeast to south 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas stay around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop back to smooth. That is a small wind-direction shift from the morning east to southeast near 5 knot forecast, not a bad change.

The Straits still look workable. NOAA has southeast wind 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, decreasing to near 5 knots, with seas around 1 foot and an east to southeast wave at 1 foot every 3 seconds. That is basically the same sea state as this morning, just with a little more south in the breeze.

Florida Bay also nudged south. The morning call was southeast near 5 knots with smooth bay waters. The midday forecast is southeast to south 5 to 10 knots, decreasing to near 5 knots, with bay waters smooth to a light chop becoming smooth.

The shower note did not really change. NOAA still keeps a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, while the larger setup stays light and mostly quiet through the middle of the week.

For the rest of the day, I would still fish the reef first. The afternoon low at Whale Harbor is 3:15 PM EDT, then the water starts working back toward the 9:27 PM high. If the current wakes up clean on that turn, the evening snapper window is worth a look.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:44 PM EDT. The afternoon stayed in the same soft pattern, just sliding more south to southwest than the morning call.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is south to southwest near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters smooth. The Straits are south to southwest near 5 knots with seas around 1 foot. NOAA still shows an east to southeast wave at 1 foot every 3 seconds, so the ocean has not built into anything ugly.

Florida Bay is also calm on paper tonight, south to southwest near 5 knots with smooth bay waters. There is still a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, but the wider forecast keeps rain chances low. Most of the shower talk is tied to nearshore island cloud lines off the Lower Middle Keys late morning into early afternoon.

The evening high at Whale Harbor is 9:27 PM EDT at 1.64 ft. If you were fishing late, that incoming water was the second clean window of the day. With this little wind, the bite still comes down to current, water color, and whether the bait stayed nervous on the edge.

Monday looks just as gentle. Hawk Channel is south to southwest near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and smooth nearshore waters. The Straits are south to southwest near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, with an east to southeast wave at 1 foot every 3 seconds. Florida Bay stays south to southwest near 5 knots and smooth.

That keeps the reef as the first move tomorrow. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses all stay in play. I would start with yellowtail and a mutton bait down deeper, then only poke outside if the birds, weed, bait, or color break make a real argument. The Gulf Stream edge is still listed 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of June 6.

---

Data sources: NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 5:37 AM EDT and updated 10:16 AM EDT and 4:44 PM EDT June 14, 2026; NOAA NDBC Long Key station LONF1 observation at 6:00 AM EDT June 14; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel, 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key, and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of June 6, 2026 using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.