Captain's log, June 18, 2026, southeast breeze, clean reef plan

Thursday, June 18. The ocean is not slick calm this morning, but it is still plenty fishable if you treat the southeast breeze with a little respect.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:17 AM EDT. Hawk Channel is the main working lane for most Islamorada reef boats today, with southeast winds 10 to 15 knots early, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. The Straits are a little more honest, southeast 10 to 15 early, easing near 10, with seas around 2 feet and a southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds.

Florida Bay is southeast to south near 10 knots with a light chop. That is summer water, warm air, and enough breeze to keep the boat sitting right on a chum slick without making the reef ugly.

The nearby morning stations match the forecast. Sombrero Key was showing southeast wind around 12 knots with gusts near 13 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Long Key was more south-southeast around 13 knots with gusts near 15 knots at the same time. So this is not a dead calm morning. It is a clean working breeze.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast 10 to 15 knots early, easing near 10 knots
Hawk Channel	seas 1 to 2 feet, light to moderate chop early
Straits	seas around 2 feet, southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast to south near 10 knots, light chop
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temp	Vaca Key, Florida Bay 89.4 degrees at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	8 NM southeast of Alligator, 4 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look if the edge has life

tides for thursday, june 18

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	12:02 AM EDT	1.62 ft	overnight high
Low	6:33 AM EDT	-0.09 ft	morning low
High	12:18 PM EDT	1.50 ft	midday high
Low	6:55 PM EDT	-0.26 ft	evening low

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	2:18 AM EDT	0.38 ft	overnight high
Low	8:08 AM EDT	0.13 ft	morning low
High	1:39 PM EDT	0.74 ft	early afternoon high
Low	9:49 PM EDT	-0.09 ft	late low

For the reef, the water is coming off the 6:33 AM low and rising into the 12:18 PM high at Whale Harbor. After lunch it falls all afternoon into the 6:55 PM low. That falling side is the better piece of the day if the current sets up right.

Do not overcomplicate it. Fish the last of the incoming if you are already there, but build the main reef plan around the afternoon outgoing. If the current runs clean and steady, the yellowtail bite should be good. If it gets lazy, move before the chum block turns into a donation.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses has the closest listed Gulf Stream edge today, 4 NM southeast of the light from the June 15 NWS position. That is close enough to keep the outside in the conversation, but the reef still gets first vote.

Start in 45 to 70 feet. The southeast breeze should put enough angle on the boat for a workable chum line. Yellowtail should be good when the water is clean and moving. Cero mackerel are a fair bet in the slick. If the outside shows birds, bait, weed, or a sharp color edge, go inspect it. If it is just blue water with no marks, do not marry it.

Conch reef

Conch is a strong working stop today. The breeze is just enough to keep the boat honest, and the midday high into the afternoon fall gives you a useful tide change.

Fish 50 to 75 feet first. Keep the chum steady and do not get fancy too early. One heavier bait down on the deeper edge is worth the trouble for a mutton. If the yellowtail are there but shy, lighten the leader before you blame the spot.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical half-day play. It gives you a shorter run, plenty of structure, and room to adjust without burning half the morning.

The snapper outlook is fair to good. Yellowtail should cooperate on the cleaner edge once the current starts carrying chum. Mangroves are a fair side bet around structure and patchy water. If the current dies after the tide turn, slide instead of waiting for the reef to apologize.

Crocker reef

Crocker needs a read from the water, not the map. It can look pretty and fish slow, or it can wake up fast when the current hits the ledge.

Give it a real look if the water has color and movement. Cero and yellowtail are the main easy calls. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. If the slick has no life after a proper soak, take the hint and keep moving.

Alligator reef

Alligator has the best all-around setup today. The Gulf Stream edge is listed 8 NM southeast of the light, so you have reef fishing and an outside option without turning the whole trip into a hunt.

Yellowtail and muttons are the main reef targets. Permit are fair on cleaner moving water around the edge. With Hawk Channel forecast at 1 to 2 feet, the run is manageable, but the southeast wind will still put some chop on the ride. Not bad, just not a coffee-table ocean.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is the quieter reset if the upper reefs get crowded or the current goes soft. It also gives you enough depth nearby to work a mutton program when the tide starts falling.

Fish the structure, keep the chum honest, and watch how the bait sits. Mangroves are fair around stained moving water. Muttons are fair deeper. If the water is clean but dead, do not let the name on the chart talk you into staying too long.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Molasses, Conch, Davis, Alligator in 45 to 75 ft
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge on the afternoon falling tide
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, patch reef, and stained moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks and active shallow reef water
Permit	fair	cleaner moving water around Alligator and Molasses
Mahi	fair	only if the outside edge has birds, bait, or weed
Bonefish	fair	early flats before the heat stacks up
Tarpon	fair	bridge channels and evening current

water temperature and heat

Vaca Key, Florida Bay showed 89.4 degrees at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before breakfast. The reef tract will usually run cooler than the bay, especially outside the shallow flats, but the pattern is plain. Summer heat is in charge.

That matters for timing. Early flats and bridge work need to happen before the day bakes. On the reef, moving water is worth more than pretty water. If you find current and bait, stay with it. If you find bathtub water and no push, keep looking.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. The forecast has enough southeast wind to put texture on the water, but not enough to shut down a good reef plan. Hawk Channel at 1 to 2 feet is workable. The Straits around 2 feet are fine for the right boat, but I would not run offshore just because the map says the Stream is close.

Molasses and Alligator have the best outside clues because the listed Stream edge is close to both. Conch and Davis are the clean working choices. Crocker and Tennessee are good reset buttons when the current or crowd gets weird.

The main swing is after lunch. The tide falls from the 12:18 PM high toward the 6:55 PM low at Whale Harbor. If that outgoing current has shape, yellowtail and muttons should be there. If it goes slack, do not sit around admiring the scenery. The fish are not paying rent on one spot.

Tonight stays fishable but a little bumpier outside. NOAA has southeast winds 10 to 15 knots in the Straits with seas 2 to 3 feet and an east to southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. Hawk Channel holds 1 to 2 feet. Friday backs down some, with southeast near 10 decreasing to 5 to 10 and seas easing toward around 1 foot in Hawk Channel.

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Source notes: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:17 AM EDT June 18, 2026. Tides from NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key. Water temperature from NOAA station 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay. Morning wind observations from NOAA/NDBC stations Sombrero Key and Long Key. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of June 15, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:34 AM EDT, and the early southeast push has backed off about like expected. Hawk Channel is now listed southeast near 10 knots for this afternoon with seas 1 to 2 feet and a light chop. That is a little kinder than the morning 10 to 15 knot wording, but it is not flat.

The Straits did not change much. NOAA still has southeast winds near 10 knots this afternoon, seas around 2 feet, and a southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. That keeps the outside fishable for the right boat, but the reef still looks like the cleaner percentage play unless there is obvious life on the edge.

Florida Bay is still southeast to south near 10 knots with a light chop. No real surprise there. The only meaningful change since the morning report is that the wind has settled into the near 10 knot range for the afternoon. Seas stayed about the same, and the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is still in the forecast.

Tonight is the piece to watch if anyone is planning a late run. NOAA has southeast winds 10 to 15 knots in the Straits with seas 2 to 3 feet, while Hawk Channel stays 1 to 2 feet. So the afternoon window is the friendlier one. Fish it clean, keep the chum moving, and do not stretch the day offshore just because the morning got manageable.

Midday source note: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:34 AM EDT June 18, 2026.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:25 PM EDT, and the day finished about where it was trying to go by lunch. The southeast breeze stayed in the workable range. Not slick. Not ugly. Just enough texture to make the reef program feel like fishing instead of sightseeing.

The latest package has Hawk Channel tonight with southeast winds near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light chop. The Straits are also southeast near 10 knots tonight, with seas around 2 feet and an east to southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. Florida Bay stays southeast near 10 knots with a light chop.

That is a cleaner evening read than the earlier worry about the outside getting into a little more bite after dark. The slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is still in there, so do not shut your brain off just because the wind number looks polite. Summer cells can still make a calm plan stupid fast.

For Friday, NOAA has Florida Bay southeast to south 5 to 10 knots, smooth to a light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Hawk Channel starts southeast near 10 knots, then decreases to 5 to 10 knots. Seas run 1 to 2 feet early and settle around 1 foot. The Straits go southeast 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and a southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds.

So tomorrow looks like another reef-first day. I would start clean and close, keep Molasses, Conch, Davis, Alligator, and Tennessee in the plan, then let the current choose the exact stop. Yellowtail should still be the main box fish if the water has push. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Mahi stay in the “look only if the outside gives you a reason” category.

The Gulf Stream edge from the June 15 NWS position remains close enough to matter, 8 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 4 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is not a license to burn fuel blind. It is a reason to keep your eyes open for birds, bait, weed, or a hard color change while you work the reef.

Evening source note: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:25 PM EDT June 18, 2026.