Captain's log, June 20, 2026, light wind, hot water, reef first

Saturday, June 20. This is a good day to fish the reef without making a big production out of it.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:25 AM EDT. The setup is light and getting lighter. Hawk Channel starts southeast 10 to 15 knots early, drops to 5 to 10 knots this morning, then goes variable near 5 knots this afternoon. Seas run 1 to 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop to smooth.

The Straits are similar, southeast 10 to 15 knots early, easing to 5 to 10 knots this morning, then east to southeast near 5 knots this afternoon. Seas are 1 to 2 feet with east to southeast wave detail 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is not a rough offshore forecast, but it is still a short-period sea. It will look better when the breeze drops.

Florida Bay is southeast to south near 10 knots, becoming south to southwest 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters start as a light chop and become smooth to a light chop. NOAA keeps a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. It is June in the Keys, so do not ignore the sky just because the wind line looks easy.

Nearby station readings around 5:30 AM EDT were already showing the easing trend. Long Key was west at 1.0 meters per second with gusts to 2.1. Sombrero Key was southeast at 4.1 meters per second with gusts to 4.6. Sand Key was southeast at 3.6 meters per second with gusts to 5.1. In knots, that puts the ocean stations around 7 to 8 knots, with gusts near 9 to 10.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast 10 to 15 knots early, easing to 5 to 10 knots, then near 5 knots
Hawk Channel	1 to 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot
Straits	1 to 2 feet, east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	light chop becoming smooth to a light chop
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temp	Vaca Key, Florida Bay 89.6 degrees at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	8 NM southeast of Alligator, 4 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look if the water shows life

tides for saturday, june 20

Whale Harbor Channel is the ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	1:43 AM EDT	1.48 ft	overnight high
Low	8:27 AM EDT	-0.06 ft	morning low
High	2:11 PM EDT	1.39 ft	afternoon high
Low	8:51 PM EDT	0.01 ft	evening low

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	3:49 AM EDT	0.46 ft	early high
Low	10:31 AM EDT	0.15 ft	late morning low
High	3:36 PM EDT	0.58 ft	afternoon high
Low	11:24 PM EDT	0.05 ft	late low

For the reef, the morning is coming off the 8:27 AM low at Whale Harbor and rising into the 2:11 PM high. That is the best clean window if the current sets up. The falling water after 2:11 PM can still fish, but do not sit on a pretty slick that has no push.

Hot water makes the tide matter more. The Vaca Key, Florida Bay station showed 89.6 degrees at 5:54 AM EDT. The reef tract can be cooler than the bay, but the pattern is obvious. Early movement, clean current, and shade from a chum line are worth more than a perfect-looking number on the GPS.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses gets the closest Gulf Stream hint today, with the listed shoreward edge 4 NM southeast of the light as of the June 15 NWS position. That does not mean the right move is to blow past the reef. It means the outside water may be close enough to check if the reef gives you a reason.

Start in 45 to 70 feet. Yellowtail should be good if the current carries the chum cleanly. Cero mackerel are fair in the slick. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge, especially around the tide change and the first part of the fall.

If birds, bait, weed, or a hard color line show outside, go look. If it is just blue water and hope, stay with the reef.

Conch reef

Conch is a steady choice in this kind of forecast. The early chop should ease, and the afternoon should get smooth enough that boat handling is not the problem.

Fish 50 to 75 feet and let the current decide how long you stay. Yellowtail are the main call. Keep one deeper bait honest for mutton snapper, but do not force a bottom program if the current is lazy. Conch can be honest, but it will not lie for your feelings.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical move when you want options without running all over the ocean. It should fish fair to good for yellowtail on the incoming water, especially if the chum line lays out instead of hanging under the transom.

Mangroves are fair around structure and patchier water. If the water is clean but dead, slide depth. If it stays dead, move. Today is too calm to spend an hour arguing with a spot that already answered.

Crocker reef

Crocker needs a real water read. The forecast is friendly, but Crocker still wants current and bait before it becomes worth your time.

Yellowtail and cero mackerel are the first targets. Muttons are fair deeper if the tide gives you enough movement to fish a bait right. If the current goes soft in the middle of the day, do not be proud. Reset shallower, deeper, or down the line.

Alligator reef

Alligator has a good balance today. The Gulf Stream edge was listed 8 NM southeast of the light, so the outside is close enough to keep in the back of your mind. Reef first, outside second.

Yellowtail should be good on clean moving water. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. Permit are fair around the cleaner edge if the water has push and the bait is acting nervous. With Hawk Channel laying down toward around 1 foot, this is one of the better calls for a comfortable reef trip.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is the quiet reset if the upper reef gets crowded or the current turns soft. The forecast gives you enough calm water to work structure instead of just surviving the ride.

Mangroves are fair around stained moving water. Yellowtail are fair to good if the chum carries. Muttons are fair deeper, especially after the afternoon high when the water starts falling. If the spot looks good but feels asleep, believe the feel.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	clean current on Molasses, Conch, Davis, Alligator, Tennessee
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge near the tide turns
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, patch reef, stained moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks on the reef edge
Permit	fair	cleaner moving water near Alligator and Molasses
Mahi	fair	only if birds, weed, bait, or a color change show outside
Bonefish	fair	early flats before the heat stacks up
Tarpon	fair	bridge channels and evening current

captain’s call

I would fish the reef first today. The weather is good enough, the seas are coming down, and the tide gives you a real incoming window through late morning and early afternoon.

Molasses and Alligator have the better outside hints because of the listed Gulf Stream edge. Conch and Davis are the clean working choices. Crocker is worth a look if the water has life. Tennessee is the reset button when you need room and moving water.

Do not overthink the calm forecast. Calm water makes bad decisions feel cheaper, and that is how people sit too long on dead water. Find current. Keep the chum steady. Watch for a sky change. If the reef starts talking, listen.

Tonight stays easy. NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight, with seas around 1 foot. The Straits are northeast to east near 5 knots, becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, with seas around 1 foot. Sunday keeps the light pattern, with southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light or variable in the afternoon.

This is a fishable Saturday. Not magic. Just honest.

midday addendum, 10:39 am noaa update

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:39 AM EDT, and the middle of the day is still sliding the right way. The morning forecast had the wind easing after a southeast start. The new one has Hawk Channel southeast 5 to 10 knots, then going variable near 5 knots this afternoon. Seas are down around 1 foot, with nearshore water smoothing out.

The Straits did not change much on paper, which is not a bad thing. NOAA still has southeast wind 5 to 10 knots this morning, becoming east to southeast near 5 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail stays east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is fishable, but it is still a short little sea, so the reef remains the cleaner bet unless the outside water shows birds, weed, bait, or a hard color edge.

Florida Bay also eased from the early call. The update has southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, with bay waters smooth to a light chop and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. That weak pressure field is the whole story now. Light wind, hot water, and enough sky risk to keep your head up.

The tide has crossed the 2:11 PM high at Whale Harbor Channel, so the next move is the first part of the fall. If the current starts carrying the chum, stay with the reef. If it lays down and gets lazy, move instead of waiting for the ocean to apologize.

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Source notes: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:25 AM EDT and updated 10:39 AM EDT June 20, 2026. Tides from NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key. Water temperature from NOAA station 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay. Morning wind observations from NOAA/NDBC stations Long Key, Sombrero Key, and Sand Key. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of June 15, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.