Captain's Log, June 23, 2026, Soft morning, warm water, reef first

Tuesday, June 23. The morning is fishable, but it is not dead slick. There is enough east and southeast breeze to put a little texture on the reef line, and the bay water is hot enough to make the shallow stuff a dawn and dusk job.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:18 AM EDT. The short version is light summer weather with a little mess in the direction. A weak high is stretched from the Gulf, across Florida, and out into the Atlantic. That makes the wind mostly mesoscale driven, which is captain talk for it can wander around and make you look dumb if you pretend it will stay perfect all day.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge gets east to southeast wind near 10 knots early, easing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas start around 2 feet and settle to 1 to 2 feet. The Straits are a little bigger, east to southeast 10 to 15 knots easing near 10 knots with 2 to 3 foot seas. NOAA’s wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds.

At 5:40 AM EDT, Long Key was southeast at about 11 knots with gusts around 14 knots. Sombrero Key was east-southeast at about 12 knots with gusts around 14 knots. Vaca Key in Florida Bay had water temperature at 90.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is bath water. Good for sweat, bad for pretending the flats will stay happy all afternoon.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 10 knots early, easing 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Straits	seas 2 to 3 feet, east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast near 10 knots early, easing 5 to 10 knots, smooth to light chop
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look, poor midday flats heat

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the right lane today. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots early, dropping to 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet early, then 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light chop to smooth to light chop.

That is workable reef water. Not glass, but plenty good for anchoring and building a chum line if the current does its part. The morning breeze may put some chop across the outside edge, then it should lay down some as the day settles.

Tonight stays east to southeast 5 to 10 knots with seas around 1 foot. Wednesday is even softer, east to southeast 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot. If you want the cleanest ride of the next couple days, Wednesday morning has a good look.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are fishable but not automatic. NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots early, easing near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with east to southeast wave detail at 3 feet and 5 seconds.

Five seconds is better than the nasty short stuff, but 3 feet is still 3 feet. If there is weed, birds, bait, or a clean color edge, take a look. If all you have is hope and a fuel bill, stay on the reef.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of June 21 is 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That puts the blue water close enough to check from either end of the Islamorada reef run, especially Molasses. It does not mean the fish are stacked up waiting. It means the option is there if the signs are there.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is southeast near 10 knots early, easing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are a light chop early, then smooth to a light chop.

The bigger issue is heat. Vaca Key was 90.7 F before sunrise. That pushes bonefish, permit, and tarpon into the lower-light windows. Early is the play. Late is the backup. Midday flats fishing in water that hot can turn into a long lesson in humility.

tides for Tuesday, June 23

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	4:17 AM EDT	1.25 ft	early high
Low	11:14 AM EDT	-0.01 ft	late morning low
High	5:07 PM EDT	1.27 ft	afternoon high
Low	11:43 PM EDT	0.28 ft	late low

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	12:53 AM EDT	0.15 ft	overnight low
High	6:13 AM EDT	0.58 ft	morning high
Low	2:18 PM EDT	0.07 ft	afternoon low
High	7:28 PM EDT	0.36 ft	evening high

For the reef, the morning outgoing into the 11:14 AM low is the first clean bite window. The water turns and builds toward the 5:07 PM high after that. If the current dies near the bottom, do not sit there feeding ghosts. Move, reset, or wait for the incoming to start pulling.

For the bay, the morning high has already done most of its work by the time the sun is high. The afternoon low at Upper Matecumbe is weak, but it still gives enough water movement for edges, channels, and bridge lanes.

reef reports

Molasses Reef

Molasses gets the most interesting Gulf Stream note today. NOAA puts the Stream edge 6 NM southeast of the light. That is close enough to matter.

Fish the reef first. Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 70 feet if the water has clean color and the current is not lazy. Cero mackerel can slide through the slick when bait shows. Muttons are a fair shot on the deeper edge.

The outside look is worth it only if the surface tells you something. Birds, weed, flying fish, color, or current edge. Without that, Molasses is still a reef day.

Conch Reef

Conch should fish steady if the outgoing tide has enough push. Work the 50 to 80 foot line and keep the chum controlled. The breeze is light enough that boat handling should not be the problem.

Yellowtail are the main target. Muttons are fair on the deeper pieces. Mangroves are fair around structure, especially if the water has a little stain or the current gets right around the tide change.

Conch is not the shortest run, but it gives you enough bottom to adjust without turning the day into a road trip.

Davis Reef

Davis is the practical pick from Whale Harbor. Short run, plenty of reef, and easy to bail out if the morning showers stack up.

Start in 40 to 60 feet. Yellowtail should be fair to good. Cero mackerel are a fair bet in a clean chum slick. Mangrove snapper are fair around patchier structure and broken bottom.

This is the best call for a half-day boat that wants dinner and does not need drama. Keep the chum steady, fish light, and move if the current is wrong.

Crocker Reef

Crocker is where I would spend time if the goal is a better mutton shot. The deeper edge in 55 to 80 feet has the right kind of bottom, and today’s sea state lets you sit there without getting knocked around too badly.

Yellowtail should be fair to good on the right current. Muttons are fair to good if you put a real bait in the lane and leave it alone. Fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or a small live grunt is worth more than a lazy chunk dropped in the wrong place.

The outgoing into late morning is the first shot. The incoming after the low can be just as useful if it starts moving clean.

Alligator Reef

Alligator is still the best all-around reef call. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of the light, which gives you a reasonable offshore option after the reef has had a fair chance.

Yellowtail should be good in 50 to 70 feet. Muttons are fair to good on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around the light and inside reef line if bait is moving.

Alligator also gives you choices. If the reef bite is good, stay. If the current quits and you see birds or weed offshore, take a measured look. Do not leave biting fish for empty blue water.

Tennessee Reef

Tennessee is fishable today, but it has to earn the run from Islamorada. The forecast supports it. The distance is the question.

Yellowtail are fair. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge if the tide is moving. If you are already working west, Tennessee is a decent stop. From Whale Harbor, I would use the best tide at Davis, Crocker, or Alligator first unless you have a specific reason to keep sliding.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Davis, Alligator, Molasses in 40 to 70 ft
Mutton snapper	fair to good	Crocker, Conch, Alligator deeper edge
Mangrove snapper	fair	patch reef, broken bottom, moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks near the reef line
Mahi mahi	fair	short Stream check if weed, birds, or color show
Permit	fair	early edges with clean water and tide
Bonefish	fair early, poor midday	first light flats before the water cooks
Tarpon	fair	bridge channels and evening current

Yellowtail are the main job. The reef weather is good enough, the tide gives you two windows, and the water should be manageable as long as the current cooperates.

Muttons are worth a real soak on the deeper reef edge. Today is not about dragging something random behind the boat and calling it a mutton bait. Put good bait where the tide can carry scent over the structure.

Mahi get a fair grade because the Stream is close to Molasses and Alligator. That is not a green light for a blind run. It is permission to check the outside if the surface has life.

The flats are heat-limited. With Vaca Key at 90.7 F before sunrise, shallow water gets tough fast. Fish early, fish late, or fish deeper water.

captain’s call

Reef first. Davis for the clean, easy plan. Crocker for the mutton soak. Alligator for the best mix of snapper, mackerel, and a short offshore decision. Molasses is worth extra attention because the Stream edge is only 6 NM southeast of the light.

The morning outgoing into the 11:14 AM Whale Harbor low is the first window. The incoming toward the 5:07 PM high gives you the second. Between those, watch the current more than the clock.

The water is hot, the breeze is light enough, and the reef has enough going for it. Make a clean set, do not overfeed the slick, and let the fish tell you how long to stay.

midday addendum, 11:30 am

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:33 AM EDT, and the middle of the day is still on the soft side.

Florida Bay has eased a little from the morning read. The new forecast has southeast wind 5 to 10 knots with seas subsiding to 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. That is a cleaner bay ride than the early light chop, but the water temperature problem does not go away just because the surface lays down.

Hawk Channel is mostly steady. NOAA still has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, with seas around 2 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. That keeps the reef plan right where it was this morning. Not slick calm, not ugly, plenty fishable for Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses if the current behaves.

The Straits improved a touch but are still the bigger water. The morning forecast had east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing near 10 knots with 2 to 3 foot seas. The midday update has east to southeast wind near 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to around 2 feet. Wave detail remains east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds.

So the call has not changed much. Reef first. Short Stream look only if there is something to look at. Bay and flats still need shade, tide, and common sense because that hot water is doing nobody any favors.

evening addendum, 5:30 pm

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:30 PM EDT, and it kept the same general story alive. High pressure is still stretched from the Gulf Basin across Florida and into the central North Atlantic. That means east to southeast breeze stays in the program, but it is not cranking tonight.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots tonight. Seas run 1 to 2 feet early, then settle around 1 foot. Nearshore waters stay smooth to a light chop. That is a polite evening ride by late June standards.

The Straits are still a little bigger, but manageable if you have a reason to be out there. Tonight is east to southeast wind near 10 knots with seas around 2 feet. NOAA’s wave detail is east 2 feet at 5 seconds. That is not a beatdown, but it is enough texture to keep a tired crew honest after a long hot day.

Florida Bay stays east to southeast 5 to 10 knots with smooth to light chop and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The bay water has been hot all day, so the better shallow-water move is still low light, moving water, and not trying to force a dead midday flat into a hero story.

afternoon recap

The day played close to the forecast. The reef stayed the best all-around lane, with enough breeze for texture but not enough to shut anything down. Hawk Channel gave the cleaner work area. The Straits were worth checking only if there was surface life, weed, birds, bait, or a color edge. Blind running just because the Gulf Stream is close is still how you turn fuel into regret.

The Whale Harbor afternoon high was 5:07 PM EDT at 1.27 feet, so the late-day reef window had the water building back in. That incoming was the better second chance after the late morning low. If the current pulled clean, yellowtail and muttons had a fair shot. If it got lazy, the smart move was to reset instead of feeding the bottom.

wednesday outlook

Wednesday looks softer than today. NOAA has Hawk Channel east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The Straits get east wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and wave detail east 2 feet at 4 seconds.

That is a good reef forecast. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses all stay in play. The Straits get a better grade than today, but it is still a signs-first call. If the outside shows weed, birds, flying fish, or clean color, take the look. If it looks empty, stay on the snapper work and put dinner in the box.

By Wednesday night the breeze starts to build a little, then Thursday into Friday freshens more with east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots and Straits seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. So tomorrow morning is the cleaner window before the weekend pattern tightens up.