Captain's log, June 24, 2026, light east breeze, reef gets the call

Wednesday, June 24. This is the kind of morning where the reef gets the first look. Light east breeze, small seas, hot water on the bay side, and just enough summer thunderstorm chance to keep everybody honest.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:33 AM EDT. The setup is a broad high pressure system running from the Gulf Basin across the Florida Peninsula and into the central North Atlantic. That high keeps the Keys in an east to southeast flow through the weekend, with light to gentle breeze today and a little more breeze starting Thursday.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 5 knots today. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth. Tonight goes east to southeast 5 to 10 knots with seas around 1 foot and smooth to light chop nearshore.

The Straits are still very fishable. NOAA has east winds 5 to 10 knots today with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds. Tonight stays 1 to 2 feet, with east winds 5 to 10 knots increasing near 10 knots and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

At 5:40 AM EDT, Long Key was southeast at about 5 knots with gusts around 7 knots. Sombrero Key was east at about 4 knots with gusts around 6 knots. Peterson Key, a Florida Bay water station, had water temperature at 88.9 F at 4:00 AM EDT. That is warm water before breakfast.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, east 5 to 10 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	1 to 2 feet, east 1 foot at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Peterson Key, Florida Bay, 88.9 F at 4:00 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look, poor midday flats heat

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest call today. East to southeast near 5 knots and seas around 1 foot is about as friendly as late June gives you without turning the ocean into a mirror and baking everybody in the cockpit.

That makes the reef line from Molasses down through Tennessee workable for anchoring, drifting, or sliding around until the current feels right. The main thing is not the wind. It is current and heat. If the chum hangs straight down, move. If the water looks alive and the slick pulls clean, give it time.

Thursday starts to build a little. NOAA has east to southeast near 10 knots in Hawk Channel with seas 1 to 2 feet, then 10 to 15 knots Thursday night with 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3. Today is the softer window.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are fishable, but I would not burn the whole morning offshore unless the signs show up. NOAA has east wind 5 to 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet, with an east 1 foot wave at 4 seconds. That is good enough to check a weed line, birds, bait, or a clean edge.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of June 21 is 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That puts blue water close, especially from the upper end of the Islamorada run.

Close water helps. It does not guarantee fish. If the outside is blank, do not let a pretty forecast talk you into sightseeing with rods out.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is smooth this morning, with southeast wind near 5 knots. That sounds nice because it is nice, but the water is hot. Peterson Key was 88.9 F at 4:00 AM EDT. The shallow stuff will only get warmer once the sun gets up.

For bonefish, permit, and tarpon, early is the job. Late can work too. Midday is the time to be very selective or go do something else. The fish do not care that the schedule says noon.

tides for wednesday, june 24

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	5:10 AM EDT	1.20 feet	early high
Low	12:05 PM EDT	-0.01 feet	midday low
High	6:03 PM EDT	1.26 feet	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	1:37 AM EDT	0.18 feet	overnight low
High	6:59 AM EDT	0.61 feet	morning high
Low	3:21 PM EDT	0.03 feet	afternoon low
High	8:44 PM EDT	0.33 feet	evening high

For the reef, the first useful window is the outgoing water toward the 12:05 PM low at Whale Harbor. If it pulls right, yellowtail should respond. After that, the rise toward the 6:03 PM high gives the afternoon another shot.

The bay has a small morning high at 6:59 AM and a low at 3:21 PM. That is not a huge tide, but it is enough movement around banks, bridge lanes, and deeper edges if you are there before the heat gets stupid.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses has the best outside option today because NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of the light. That is close enough to matter.

Start on the reef unless the ocean gives you a reason to leave. Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 70 feet if the current runs clean. Cero mackerel are fair in the slick. A deeper bait is worth soaking for muttons along the edge.

The outside look is a bonus. Birds, flyers, weed, color, or current edge. Without that, stay where the groceries live.

Conch reef

Conch should fish steady in this forecast. Light breeze, small seas, and enough room to move if one piece of bottom has lazy water.

Work 50 to 80 feet and keep the chum controlled. Yellowtail are the main play. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. Mangroves can show around rougher structure, especially if the water has a little stain or the current changes around midday.

This is a good day to be patient, but not stubborn. There is a difference.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical half-day call. Short run, small sea, easy to reset if the current is wrong. That matters when the weather gives you options and the bite asks for timing.

Start in 40 to 60 feet. Yellowtail should be fair to good with clean moving water. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows in the slick. Mangroves are fair on patchier bottom and ledges.

For families or anyone looking for dinner without a long ride, Davis makes sense today.

Crocker reef

Crocker has a better mutton look than some of the shallower stops. The deeper edge in 55 to 80 feet is worth time if the outgoing tide has enough push.

Yellowtail should be fair to good. Muttons are fair, maybe better if you put a real bait in the right lane and leave it alone. Fresh ballyhoo, a pinfish, or a small live grunt beats dropping whatever is easiest.

If the current dies near the low, do not feed the bottom for charity. Reset and wait for the incoming to start working.

Alligator reef

Alligator gets a good overall grade today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of the light, and Hawk Channel is small enough to let you fish the reef without taking a beating.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair in the chum line if bait is around.

The tower area can get plenty of pressure, so do not marry the obvious spot. If the water is pretty but dead, slide until the boat sits right.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is a good lower-end option in today’s light weather. It is not the flashiest call, but it can be a smart one when the goal is steady snapper fishing and less traffic.

Look from 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail are fair to good if the current lays out. Mangroves are fair around structure. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth keeping honest.

The afternoon incoming after the Whale Harbor low could be useful here if it starts moving clean. Watch the clouds. Summer storms do not need much invitation.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper get the best grade today. The sea state is right, the reef is comfortable, and the outgoing tide should give the morning a workable current window. Light leader and a clean chum line matter more than talking loud about yesterday’s bite.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edges. Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Tennessee all get a look if the current lines up. Do not overwork dead water. It is expensive and boring.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait and chum slicks. They can turn a slow yellowtail stop into action fast, especially when the water is clean.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore, not automatic. The Straits are nice enough to look, and the Stream is close on the upper end, but I want birds, weed, bait, or a hard color edge before I call it a mahi plan.

Blackfin tuna are a fair early or late shot on the outside humps and deeper current edges. The cleaner offshore water helps, but this is not the main event today.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are morning or evening fish with the water this hot. The bay can be slick and still fish poorly at midday. Warm water changes the clock.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Molasses has the closest Stream edge and the best offshore option if the signs show up. Davis is the clean half-day dinner call. Crocker and Alligator get the mutton and yellowtail nod if you want to spend the time right.

The weather is good. The trick is not overcomplicating it. Find moving water, keep the chum honest, and leave dead current before it eats the day.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:25 AM EDT. Not a big change from the morning package, which is good news if you had the reef circled.

For Hawk Channel, the afternoon call still sits east to southeast near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and smooth nearshore water. Florida Bay is still smooth with east to southeast wind near 5 knots. The Straits hold at east wind 5 to 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet, with an east 1 foot wave at 4 seconds.

The one small adjustment is tonight in the Straits. NOAA now has east wind 5 to 10 knots increasing near 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet building to around 2 feet and an east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. That is not a blowout. It is just enough to say the cleanest window is still this afternoon, and tomorrow starts the slow step up in breeze.

So the call stays mostly the same. Reef first, offshore only if the water gives you birds, weed, bait, or a real edge. Keep an eye on the summer shower chance, but the midday forecast did not take the day away from us.

evening addendum, 5:00 pm

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:30 PM EDT, and the setup did not make any wild move. A broad high over the North Atlantic is still reaching west toward the Florida Peninsula. That keeps us in east to southeast breeze through early next week, with the wind pulsing a little stronger at night.

For tonight, Hawk Channel gets east to southeast wind near 5 knots, increasing to near 10 knots. Seas build from around 1 foot to 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop. The Straits get east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, increasing near 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet building around 2 feet. NOAA’s wave detail is east 2 feet at 4 seconds.

Florida Bay stays easy enough on paper, east to southeast near 5 knots increasing to 5 to 10 knots, with bay waters smooth becoming smooth to a light chop. There is still a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. That is just summer in the Keys, not a reason to panic, but it is a reason to keep one eye up.

afternoon recap

The afternoon played close to the morning call. The reef stayed the cleanest working lane, and that was the right place to spend the day if the current behaved. Hawk Channel gave enough room to set up on yellowtail, fish a deeper mutton bait, and move without getting punished for every reset.

The Straits were fishable, but only worth the fuel if the surface showed something real. Weed, birds, bait, flying fish, or a hard color edge. Without that, the smarter money stayed on the reef. Close Gulf Stream water is useful, but it does not put fish in the box by itself.

The evening Whale Harbor high was 6:03 PM EDT at 1.26 feet. That incoming water was the second chance after the midday low, especially for the snapper bite. If it pulled clean over the reef edge, good. If it got lazy, the answer was to move, not keep feeding dead water.

thursday outlook

Thursday still looks plenty fishable, just a touch more breeze than the softest part of today. NOAA has Hawk Channel east to southeast near 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and nearshore waters a light chop. The Straits are around 2 feet, with east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds.

That keeps the reef as the first call. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Molasses all stay in play if the current runs. Yellowtail should still be the bread-and-butter target, with a mutton bait worth keeping down on the deeper edge.

Offshore gets a fair look, not a blind charge. The Gulf Stream edge from the June 21 NOAA read is still close to the upper reef line, 10 NM southeast of Alligator and 6 NM southeast of Molasses. If tomorrow morning shows birds, weed, bait, or clean color, take a measured look. If it is empty blue water, stay where the snapper live.

Thursday night starts the next step up. East to southeast wind increases to 10 to 15 knots, Hawk Channel builds to 2 to 3 feet, and the Straits go 2 to 3 feet. Friday holds that 10 to 15 knot pattern. So the cleaner move is to use Thursday early, fish smart, and do not wait until the ocean starts talking louder.