Captain's log, June 25, 2026, southeast breeze, clean reef window

Thursday, June 25. The breeze is back to a normal summer east and southeast push, not ugly, just enough to keep the ocean honest. The reef is still the best first call from Islamorada. Offshore is fishable, but it is not the slick little laydown we had yesterday morning.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:33 AM EDT. The setup is a broad high pressure system centered over the North Atlantic, stretched west toward the Florida Peninsula. That keeps the Keys in east to southeast wind through early next week, mostly light to gentle, with some gentle to moderate breeze at night.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots today. Seas are 1 to 2 feet and nearshore waters are a light chop. Tonight goes east to southeast 10 to 15 knots with the same 1 to 2 foot sea and a light to moderate chop nearshore.

The Straits are still workable. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots today with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is fine for a competent crew, but it is bumpier than the reef line and not the place to waste time if the birds, weed, color, or bait do not show up quick.

At 5:40 AM EDT, Long Key was east to southeast at about 7 knots with gusts around 9 knots. Sombrero Key was east at about 8 knots with gusts around 10 knots. Peterson Key in Florida Bay had water temperature at 88.5 F at 4:00 AM EDT. Vaca Key in Florida Bay was even hotter overnight, holding around 91 F after midnight. That is summer water, plain and simple.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 10 knots
Hawk Channel	1 to 2 feet, light chop nearshore
Straits	2 to 3 feet, east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast near 10 knots, bay waters a light chop
Rain	slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Peterson Key, Florida Bay, 88.5 F at 4:00 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look, poor midday flats heat

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the practical lane today. East to southeast near 10 knots with 1 to 2 foot seas gives you enough breeze to move air across the deck, but it should still let you anchor, drift, or reset without beating everybody up.

The reef line from Molasses down through Tennessee should be manageable. The deciding factor will be current. If the chum slick pulls clean and the water has color, stay with it. If it hangs dead under the boat, do not donate bait to the bottom. Move until the water acts alive.

Tonight gets a little more breeze. NOAA has east to southeast 10 to 15 knots in Hawk Channel, still 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters going light to moderate chop. That does not shut anything down, but the cleaner ride is earlier.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are fishable, not free. NOAA has 2 to 3 foot seas today with an east to southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. That short period means you will feel it more than the number sounds on paper.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of June 21 is 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps blue water close to the upper end of the Islamorada run. Close water is useful. It is not a promise.

If the outside has birds, flying fish, scattered weed, or a clean edge, it is worth a look for mahi and blackfin. If it is empty, slide back to the reef and go to work. Pretty water with no life is still a boat ride.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay has southeast wind near 10 knots today, with bay waters a light chop and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The surface should be workable. The heat is the bigger problem.

Peterson Key was 88.5 F at 4:00 AM EDT. Vaca Key was around 91 F overnight. That means the shallow stuff is already hot before the sun does its full damage.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early or late business. Midday flats fishing in this water takes discipline. Find moving water, shade, deeper edges, or do not force it.

tides for thursday, june 25

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	12:35 AM EDT	0.30 ft	overnight low
High	6:02 AM EDT	1.18 ft	morning high
Low	12:53 PM EDT	-0.01 ft	midday low
High	6:55 PM EDT	1.27 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	2:21 AM EDT	0.20 ft	overnight low
High	7:44 AM EDT	0.62 ft	morning high
Low	4:16 PM EDT	-0.02 ft	afternoon low
High	9:46 PM EDT	0.31 ft	late high

For the reef, the water falling into the 12:53 PM Whale Harbor low is the first real window after breakfast. The evening incoming toward 6:55 PM gives another shot, especially if the afternoon clouds keep the heat down.

For the bay, the morning high at Upper Matecumbe has already put some water on the flats. The long fall toward the 4:16 PM low can move fish through channels and edges, but the heat will make the skinny water touchy.

reef reports

Molasses Reef

Molasses gets the best Gulf Stream note again. NOAA puts the Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, so the outside color can be close if the current is right.

Reef fishing is the safer bet. Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 70 feet if the slick runs clean. Cero mackerel are possible around bait. Muttons are a fair shot on the deeper edge, especially when the tide starts to move with some purpose.

The outside look is worth a quick check only if it shows signs. Birds, weed, bait, color change. Without that, keep the day honest and fish the reef.

Conch Reef

Conch should fish fair today. It will have the same east to southeast push, with enough chop to keep the surface from going dead flat.

Yellowtail are the main call. Mangrove snapper can mix in around structure, and the deeper side can give up a mutton if the current is not lazy. If the tide gets weak around the midday low, do not sit there pretending the bite is about to fix itself.

Conch is a good reset reef if Molasses has too much traffic or the slick does not line up.

Davis Reef

Davis is a solid practical stop from Whale Harbor. Shorter run, good structure, easy to bail if showers stack up.

Yellowtail should be fair. Mangroves are fair around the harder bottom and ledges. Cero mackerel can show in the slick when bait is there. For families or mixed crews, Davis is one of the better choices today because the ride stays reasonable and you can adjust fast.

Watch the current more than the clock. The 12:53 PM low is useful, but the bite will tell you when the water is actually moving.

Crocker Reef

Crocker has a fair to good outlook if the water color stays clean. It can be a little more exposed than the closer reef stops, but today’s 1 to 2 foot Hawk Channel forecast keeps it in play.

Yellowtail should be the target. Muttons are fair on the edge and deeper patches. Cero mackerel are a possibility if bait slides through. If the current runs too hard, lighten the chum and make the bait look natural. If the current dies, move.

The evening incoming toward the 6:55 PM Whale Harbor high could be the better second window here.

Alligator Reef

Alligator sits close to the Gulf Stream note too. NOAA has the Stream edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. That gives the outside crew something to look at, but the Straits are 2 to 3 feet, so do not make a long guessing game out of it.

On the reef, yellowtail are fair to good. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Mangroves should keep improving as the summer pattern settles in. The structure here can fish well if the current pulls clean and the water is not too milky.

If you are working Alligator, keep one eye offshore. Birds or weed outside the reef can be worth a short slide.

Tennessee Reef

Tennessee is a fair call today, especially if the closer reefs are crowded or dirty. The ride west should be manageable in Hawk Channel, but the wind is not flat calm, so plan the day instead of wandering.

Yellowtail are fair. Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair on the deeper side when the tide has some movement. This is not a hero forecast. It is a working reef forecast. Put the boat where the water is moving and make clean presentations.

If the afternoon storms start building, Tennessee is not where I would want to be daydreaming.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best reef bet today. The wind and sea state are friendly enough, and the falling water into midday should give them a reason to feed. Use the chum, but do not overfeed dead current.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge and patches. They need cleaner water and movement. If the bite is all small yellowtail and bait pickers, slide deeper or change bottom.

Mangrove snapper are fair and getting more interesting with this summer heat. Work structure, ledges, and low-light windows. They are not always polite, so keep the tackle honest.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait and slicks. If they show up, they will usually tell on themselves fast.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore, not automatic. The Stream edge is close near Molasses and Alligator, but the Straits are 2 to 3 feet and the period is short. Check the signs. Do not chase blank water all day.

Blackfin tuna are fair in the outside lanes and around deeper activity. Early is better. Birds matter. Bait matters more.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are poor to fair after the morning. The bay water is hot, and that heat makes fish picky. Early moving water is the best shot. Late day can work if storms do not own the sky.

the call

Start reef-first. Molasses, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee are all fishable today, with Molasses and Alligator getting the most interesting outside-water note because the Gulf Stream edge is close.

I would use the falling tide into the 12:53 PM Whale Harbor low for the first reef push, then look for the incoming toward the 6:55 PM high if the afternoon weather behaves. Offshore gets a look only if it earns it.

The ocean is not mean today. It is just not lazy. Fish like you mean it, watch the clouds, and do not let hot bay water fool you into thinking every pretty flat is holding happy fish.

midday addendum, 10:20 AM NOAA update

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:20 AM EDT, and the main Islamorada call did not move much from the morning package.

Hawk Channel is still east to southeast near 10 knots this afternoon with seas 1 to 2 feet and nearshore waters a light chop. That matches the morning read, so the reef-first plan still holds. The change comes later, not now. Tonight still builds to east to southeast 10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop nearshore.

The Straits are also holding steady. NOAA still has east to southeast wind near 10 knots this afternoon with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail remains east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is fishable, but still short-period and not worth a blind offshore wander unless the water shows life.

Florida Bay eased a hair in the midday wording. The morning read had southeast wind near 10 knots. The 10:20 AM update has southeast wind 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, with bay waters smooth to a light chop and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. That is a little softer on paper, but the hot water problem has not changed.

For the bayside and Gulfside water from Craig Key through the west end of Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA now says southeast wind near 10 knots early, briefly decreasing to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas stay 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters go from a light chop to smooth to a light chop. So the inside ride is a touch better than this morning, but not enough to change the fishing plan.

The working call at midday is the same: reef first, keep the outside honest if it shows birds or weed, and do not gamble the afternoon on hot skinny water unless the tide is moving and the clouds give you cover.

evening addendum, 4:42 PM NOAA update

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:42 PM EDT, and the afternoon read sharpened up the same thing we felt coming. The breeze is not ugly, but it has more shoulder tonight and tomorrow than it had this morning.

Hawk Channel is the main change for the close reef run. Tonight NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots early, increasing to near 15 knots this evening. Seas build from 1 to 2 feet to 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters going from a light to moderate chop to a moderate chop. That is still fishable, but the easy window is gone once the evening breeze stands up.

For Friday, Hawk Channel stays east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet and a light to moderate chop nearshore. That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee in play for a reef day. It is not a slick calm family float. It is a working reef forecast.

The Straits get bumpier. Tonight NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots early, increasing to near 15 knots this evening. Seas build from 2 to 3 feet to 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. Friday is east wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds.

That short period matters. A 4 foot sea at 5 seconds is not a pretty offshore scouting day unless the signs are obvious. If the birds, weed, bait, or color line show up close, take your look. If it is blank, do not spend fuel trying to talk yourself into a bite.

Florida Bay is also a little stiffer tonight and Friday. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots early tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 knots this evening, with bay waters building from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. Friday stays east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop, plus a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

So the afternoon recap is simple. The morning reef plan aged well. The ocean stayed usable, but the later package took away some of the soft edges for tonight and tomorrow. Friday still fishes. Start with the reef, keep the runs clean, and treat offshore as a bonus only if the water earns it fast.