Captain's log, June 26, 2026, east breeze builds, reef stays in play

Friday, June 26. We have a real east breeze today, not a blowout, but enough that the ocean will make you pay attention. The reef line is still the cleanest plan from Islamorada. Offshore is fishable for the right crew, but the Straits are not giving away a free ride.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:35 AM EDT. The setup is a broad high pressure system over the North Atlantic, stretched west toward the Florida Peninsula. That keeps the Keys in east to southeast breeze through early next week, mostly light to gentle, with gentle to moderate pushes showing up at times, mainly overnight.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots today, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas build to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters start as a light chop, then become a light to moderate chop. That is reef fishing weather, but it is not the flat little parking lot some folks like to imagine when they read “near 10 knots.”

The Straits are bumpier. NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. Short period. Bow work. Doable, but not the place to wander around pretending every weed string is worth another mile.

At 5:40 AM EDT, Long Key was reading 120 degrees at 11 knots with gusts around 13 knots. Sombrero Key was east at 9 knots with gusts around 12 knots. Peterson Key in Florida Bay had water temperature at 87.4 F at 4:00 AM EDT. Vaca Key in Florida Bay was 90.1 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot summer water before breakfast.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 10 knots, building to 10 to 15 knots
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet, light chop becoming light to moderate chop
Straits	2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet
Wave detail	east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds
Florida Bay	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, increasing near 10 knots
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Peterson Key 87.4 F at 4:00 AM, Vaca Key 90.1 F at 5:54 AM
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef plan, fair offshore for capable crews, poor midday flats heat

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the working lane today. East to southeast breeze building into the 10 to 15 knot range will put some chop on it, but 2 to 3 feet is still workable for reef fishing if the crew is ready and the boat is set up right.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all stay in play. The trick is not picking a magic reef name. The trick is finding the clean water and current that makes the chum slick behave. If the slick hangs under the transom, move. If it runs straight and steady, fish it hard.

Tonight stays breezy. NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots with Hawk Channel seas 2 to 3 feet and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. The earlier reef window is the better ride.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair, but they are not soft. NOAA has 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5, with an east to southeast 4 foot wave at 5 seconds. That short period is what matters. It stacks the ride up and makes the ocean feel busier than the simple number suggests.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of June 21 is 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close blue water is worth noting. It is not a guarantee of fish.

If you see birds, flying fish, clean weed, or a hard color break, give it a look. If the outside is empty, get back to the reef and make a day. The fish box does not care how far you drove.

florida bay

Florida Bay has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots this morning, increasing near 10 knots. Bay waters go from smooth to a light chop into a light chop. That sounds friendly enough, but the water temperature is doing the talking.

Peterson Key was 87.4 F at 4:00 AM EDT. Vaca Key was 90.1 F at 5:54 AM EDT. By midday, the skinny water will be hot and touchy.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early or late business today. Look for moving water, slightly deeper edges, shade lines, and fish that are already feeding. Do not stand on a dead flat at noon and call it bad luck.

tides for friday, june 26

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	1:44 AM EDT	0.42 ft	overnight low
High	7:28 AM EDT	1.34 ft	morning high
Low	3:41 PM EDT	-0.11 ft	afternoon low
High	9:36 PM EDT	0.65 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	3:06 AM EDT	0.20 ft	overnight low
High	8:27 AM EDT	0.64 ft	morning high
Low	5:03 PM EDT	-0.05 ft	late afternoon low
High	10:35 PM EDT	0.31 ft	late high

For the reef, the water falling away from the 7:28 AM high toward the 3:41 PM low is the main window. It is a long outgoing stretch, so do not get married to one anchor drop. Current will matter more than the clock.

For the bay, the morning high at 8:27 AM gives the best early push. After that, heat becomes the tax. The falling water into 5:03 PM can move fish through channels and edges, but the shallow flats will need shade, cloud cover, or patience.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses has the most interesting outside-water note. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, so blue water can be close if the current is right.

On the reef, yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 70 feet when the slick runs clean. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait. If the outside shows birds or weed, take a short look. If it looks pretty and empty, stop sightseeing.

conch reef

Conch is a fair reef call today, especially if Molasses has too much traffic or the current does not line up. The east to southeast wind will give it texture, and that can help the yellowtail bite when the water is clean.

Yellowtail are the main target. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Muttons are fair deeper, especially during stronger movement on the outgoing tide. If the bite turns into tiny fish and bait pickers, reset instead of feeding the reef for free.

davis reef

Davis is practical today. Shorter run, good structure, and easier to duck back if the showers start stacking up.

Yellowtail should be fair. Mangroves are fair around ledges and hard bottom. Cero mackerel can show in the slick if bait is around. For family crews, Davis is one of the better choices because the ride stays manageable and the captain still has options.

crocker reef

Crocker is fair to good if the water color holds. It can feel a little more exposed when the east breeze gets up, but today’s Hawk Channel forecast keeps it fishable.

Yellowtail are the cleanest play. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge and patches. Cero mackerel are possible when bait slides through. If the current is too strong, lighten the chum and fish smarter. If it dies, do not wait around for a miracle.

alligator reef

Alligator sits close to the Gulf Stream note too, with NOAA placing the edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. That keeps the outside interesting, but the Straits are 2 to 4 feet with occasional 5 footers, so pick your shot.

On the reef, yellowtail are fair to good. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Mangroves are fair and should keep improving in this heat. Keep an eye outside for birds or weed. A short slide can pay, but a long blind run is how you turn a fishing day into a fuel receipt.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is a fair call if the closer reefs are crowded, dirty, or slow. The run west in Hawk Channel is workable, but the breeze is up enough that I would not wander there without a reason.

Yellowtail are fair. Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair deeper when the tide has some pull. This is a working reef setup, not a hero forecast. Put the boat where the water moves right and keep the baits clean.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. The reef is fishable, the outgoing tide gives a long window, and the chop should keep the surface from getting too lazy. Use the chum, but do not overfeed dead water.

Mutton snapper are fair on deeper reef edges and patches. Cleaner water matters. Movement matters more.

Mangrove snapper are fair and becoming more interesting with the summer heat. Fish structure, ledges, and lower-light windows. Keep enough tackle on them because the better ones will not ask politely.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait and slicks. If they show, they usually announce themselves fast.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore, not automatic. The Gulf Stream edge is close near Molasses and Alligator, but the Straits are bouncy and short-period. Check the signs, then either commit or come home to the reef.

Blackfin tuna are fair on the outside lanes and deeper activity. Early is better. Birds matter. Bait matters more.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are poor to fair after the morning. The bay water is hot. Early moving water gives the best shot, and late day can work if storms do not take over.

the call

Start reef-first. I would fish the outgoing tide after the morning high, move until the slick runs right, and keep the outside honest only if it shows real life.

Molasses and Alligator get the blue-water nod because the Stream edge is close. Davis and Conch are the practical plays. Crocker and Tennessee are worth the run when the water looks better west or the crowd is stacked up closer to home.

The ocean is fishable today. It just wants you awake. Watch the clouds, mind the short-period chop, and do not let hot bay water talk you into forcing a flats bite that is not there.