Captain's log, June 28, 2026, east southeast breeze, reef first again

Sunday, June 28. Same basic summer pattern, but a touch cleaner than yesterday in the way that matters for a charter boat. East to southeast wind near 10 knots, reef water that is fishable, and enough shower chance around that you still keep your head out of the cooler.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:30 AM EDT. The setup is a broad high pressure system centered over the North Atlantic and stretched west toward the Florida Peninsula. That keeps the Keys in light to gentle east to southeast breeze, with the wind freshening some at night. Late Monday, a frontal boundary is expected to press south across Florida and stall across central Florida, which should weaken the high and slacken the breeze through Wednesday.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots today. Seas are around 2 feet, with nearshore waters a light chop. That keeps the reef line very much in play from Molasses down through Tennessee.

The Straits are workable, not flat. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is short-period summer chop. A bigger boat can fish it, but I would still want to see life before making offshore the whole plan.

At 5:40 AM EDT, Long Key was east southeast at 12 knots. Sombrero Key was east at 12 knots. Vaca Key in Florida Bay had east wind at 5.1 knots with gusts to 9.9 knots at 5:00 AM EDT, and the water temperature was 90.0 F. That is bathtub water before the sun gets rolling.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 10 knots
Hawk Channel	around 2 feet, light chop nearshore
Straits	2 to 3 feet, east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 10 knots, bay waters a light chop
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms in the bay and Hawk Channel, slight chance in the Straits
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.0 F at 5:00 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look, poor midday flats heat

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the right lane today. East to southeast near 10 knots and seas around 2 feet is not glassy, but it is honest working water. The ride to the reef should be fine for a normal crew, and the light chop may actually help keep the surface from feeling dead.

The thing to watch is current. If the chum slick lays back and bait starts acting nervous, stay put and fish. If the water hangs under the boat or the little fish eat everything before it settles, move. A good forecast does not fix dead current.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all get a green light for a reef trip on this read. Pick the reef by the crew, the tide, and how much weather you see building around the horizon.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair. NOAA has 2 to 3 feet with an east to southeast 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That 5 second period keeps the ride from feeling lazy.

The Gulf Stream edge from the June 21 NOAA read is still close to the upper reef line. NOAA places it 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough to check if the water shows you something.

I would not make a blind offshore run today. Birds, weed, flying fish, bait, a clean color edge, or a hard current line, yes. Empty blue water with no signs, no. The reef is too reasonable to go sightseeing with rods out.

florida bay

Florida Bay has east to southeast wind near 10 knots with bay waters a light chop. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The ride is not the problem.

The heat is the problem. Vaca Key was 90.0 F at 5:00 AM EDT. That is rough on skinny-water fish once the sun gets up.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early or late work today. Moving water matters. Clouds help. Midday flats fishing is a grind unless the tide and sky give you cover.

tides for sunday, june 28

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	2:52 AM EDT	0.28 ft	overnight low
High	8:23 AM EDT	1.21 ft	morning high
Low	3:05 PM EDT	-0.05 ft	afternoon low
High	9:07 PM EDT	1.33 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	4:32 AM EDT	0.19 ft	early low
High	9:50 AM EDT	0.66 ft	morning high
Low	6:22 PM EDT	-0.09 ft	evening low
High	11:49 PM EDT	0.31 ft	late high

For the reef, the fall from the 8:23 AM Whale Harbor high toward the 3:05 PM low is the first working window. If it pulls clean over the reef edge, yellowtail should respond.

The evening incoming toward 9:07 PM can be useful too, especially for mangroves and muttons, but watch the weather. Summer storms do not need much time to make a good plan smaller.

For the bay, the 9:50 AM high is the best early mark. After that, the long fall toward the 6:22 PM low can move fish around drains and edges, but the water is hot enough that shade and timing matter more than optimism.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the best outside-water note again because NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close. It is not a promise.

The reef itself should be the main play. Yellowtail snapper are fair to good in 45 to 70 feet if the current lays out. Cero mackerel are fair in the slick if bait is around. A deeper bait is worth keeping down for a mutton.

If birds, weed, flyers, or a sharp edge show up outside, take a look. If the outside is empty, do not let blue water talk you out of dinner.

conch reef

Conch should fish fair to good on this forecast. The breeze is light enough for a clean anchor game, and 2 foot Hawk Channel seas should not make the run a problem.

Yellowtail are the first target. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Mangroves are fair around harder bottom and ledges, especially if the current slows and the water has a little color.

Conch can be patient fishing. It should not be stubborn fishing. If the slick does not set right, slide.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half-day call. Short run, plenty of structure, and easy to reset if showers start stacking up.

Yellowtail should be fair in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair around the ledges. Cero mackerel are possible if bait gets pushed into the chum. For families and dinner trips, Davis makes a lot of sense today.

The falling water into the 3:05 PM Whale Harbor low is the main window I would work.

crocker reef

Crocker is in play and has the better mutton look if the current gives you enough pull. The deeper edge in 55 to 80 feet deserves time, but only if the water is moving.

Yellowtail should be fair to good with a clean slick. Muttons are fair on real baits along the edge. Fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or a small live grunt beats lazy bait.

If the current dies around the low, do not feed the bottom just to feel busy. Move or wait for the incoming.

alligator reef

Alligator gets a good overall grade today. NOAA places the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, and Hawk Channel is small enough to make the reef comfortable.

Yellowtail are fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper structure. Mangroves are fair in the summer pattern, mostly around low light and better current.

The tower area can draw pressure. If the obvious water is crowded or dead, slide off and fish the less obvious pieces.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is a good lower-end option in this weather. It is not the loudest call, but it can be the right one when the goal is snapper, manageable seas, and less traffic.

Look from 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail are fair to good if the current runs. Mangroves are fair around structure. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth keeping honest.

The afternoon fall into the low and the first part of the evening incoming are the pieces to watch.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. The reef is fishable, the morning tide gives a falling-water window, and the east to southeast breeze should not beat up the chum game. Light leader still matters. So does patience with the chum bag.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edges and patches. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee all get a look if the current is right. They will not fix dead water for you.

Mangrove snapper are fair and getting more interesting as the summer pattern holds. Low light helps. Structure helps. Heavier tackle than you think you can get away with also helps.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait and active chum slicks. If they are there, they usually announce themselves fast.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore, but not automatic. The Stream is close enough near Molasses and Alligator to matter. I still want birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a clean edge before calling it a mahi day.

Blackfin tuna are fair early around deeper current edges and any bird life. This is a look, not the core plan.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are poor to fair once the sun gets high. The bay water is 90.0 F early, and that changes the clock. Fish them early, fish them late, or fish somewhere with deeper water and more movement.

the call

Reef first. Molasses gets the best outside-water option. Davis is the simple half-day dinner run. Crocker and Alligator get the nod if you want to spend time on yellowtail with a real mutton bait down.

The offshore look has to earn it today. The Straits are fishable, but 2 to 3 feet at 5 seconds is not a free ride. If the ocean shows signs, check it. If it does not, stay on the reef and make a living.

The bay is an early or late deal with water this hot. Midday back there is mostly a test of patience, sunscreen, and bad decisions.

midday addendum, 10:20 AM NOAA update

NOAA Key West put out the next coastal waters forecast at 10:20 AM EDT, and the main story is not a full change of plan. It is a little more breeze showing up in the ocean zones.

Florida Bay stayed close to the morning read. The update has east to southeast winds near 10 knots this afternoon, bay waters a light chop, and a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. That is about the same as the morning, except the shower chance is still worth watching if you are tucked back there late.

Hawk Channel bumped up a notch. The morning forecast had east to southeast wind near 10 knots with seas around 2 feet and a light chop nearshore. The midday update has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, seas around 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. Still fishable. Just a little more texture on the ride and on the anchor.

The Straits are still 2 to 3 feet this afternoon, with east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots and an east to southeast 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. The wind is up from the morning’s near 10 knot read, but the daytime sea number did not really change. Tonight is where NOAA adds more bite, with east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with an east 4 foot wave at 5 seconds.

So the afternoon call stays reef first. Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee are still the better working lanes if the current behaves. Offshore can still get checked if the water shows birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a real edge, but the Straits are not getting any softer as the day goes on.

evening addendum, 4:24 PM NOAA update

NOAA Key West issued the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:24 PM EDT, and it kept the same working pattern in place. The broad North Atlantic high is still reaching west toward Florida, so the Keys stay in east to southeast breeze tonight and Monday. Late Monday, NOAA expects a frontal boundary to press south across the Florida Peninsula and stall over central Florida. That should weaken the high and let the breeze slacken through Thursday.

The afternoon did what the midday update warned about. It did not turn nasty, but it did put a little more shoulder into the ocean. Sombrero Key was east at 8.9 knots with gusts to 12.1 knots at 4:30 PM EDT. Long Key was southeast at 8.9 knots with gusts to 12.1 knots at 4:40 PM EDT. Vaca Key in Florida Bay was southeast at 6.0 knots with gusts to 11.1 knots at 4:18 PM EDT, and the bay water was 91.8 F at 4:00 PM EDT.

That is a real summer afternoon. Fishable on the reef, hot in the bay, and not the kind of Straits water where you go wandering just because the boat has fuel.

tonight

Florida Bay gets east to southeast wind near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters go from a light chop to a light to moderate chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Hawk Channel gets east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet and a light to moderate chop nearshore. That keeps the reef workable, but it is not a slick-calm evening.

The Straits get east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas build 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with an east 4 foot wave at 5 seconds. That short-period stuff stacks up fast. If you are out there late, point the bow home before the ride writes the ending for you.

monday outlook

Monday still looks like a reef day first. Hawk Channel holds east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and a light to moderate chop. Yellowtail, mangrove snapper, and a mutton bait on the deeper edge are the sensible plan from Molasses through Tennessee.

The Straits improve a notch from tonight, but they do not go flat. NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet and an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is fair offshore water for the right boat, not a free pass for every crew. I would still make mahi earn the run with birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a hard color edge.

Florida Bay is the easy-riding side on paper, with east to southeast wind near 10 knots and a light chop. The problem is heat. With Vaca Key already at 91.8 F this afternoon, bonefish, permit, and tarpon stay on the early or late clock unless clouds and moving water help.

the monday call

Start on the reef. If the current runs, stay on it and fish clean. If the ocean shows something real outside Molasses or Alligator, take a look, but do not turn Monday into a sightseeing trip in 3 feet at 5 seconds.

For most boats, the smart money is yellowtail first, mangroves as the light changes, and one honest mutton bait down the whole time. The bay gets a short leash because that water is cooking. Offshore gets a shorter one unless the signs are obvious.

Evening addendum data: NWS Key West Marine Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:24 PM EDT June 28, 2026. Station observations from NOAA NDBC SMKF1 at 4:30 PM EDT, LONF1 at 4:40 PM EDT, and VCAF1 at 4:18 PM EDT.