Captain's log, June 29, 2026, reef first with a little more east wind

Monday, June 29. The reef is still the sensible first move, but today has more east wind in it than yesterday morning. Not terrible. Not flat either.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:31 AM EDT. The broad high over the North Atlantic is still stretched west toward Florida, keeping the Keys in light to gentle breeze with a few moderate bumps at times. Starting late tonight, NOAA expects a front to press south across the Florida Peninsula and stall over central Florida. That should weaken the high and let the breeze ease through Thursday.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots today. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. That is fishable reef water, but it is not a lazy slick-calm ride.

The Straits are the rougher lane. NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That short period matters. It makes the outside feel tighter than the number looks.

At 5:40 AM EDT, Long Key was east southeast at 13 knots with gusts to 16 knots. Sombrero Key was east at 11 knots with gusts to 13 knots. Vaca Key in Florida Bay was east at 5.1 knots with gusts to 8.0 knots, and NOAA Tides and Currents had the Vaca Key water temperature at 89.6 F at 5:54 AM EDT.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots on the reef, east 10 to 15 knots offshore
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet, light to moderate chop nearshore
Straits	2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, east 3 feet at 5 seconds
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 10 knots, bay waters a light chop
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.6 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	fair to good reef day, fair but bumpy offshore look, poor midday flats heat

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is workable. East to southeast 10 to 15 knots over 2 to 3 feet means you will feel the ride, especially in an open boat, but it keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee in play.

The anchor game needs some patience. In this breeze, the boat may sit a little stern-heavy to the chop, and the slick can get pushed around. If the current lays with the wind, good. If wind and current fight each other, the chum line can get ugly fast.

I would pick the reef by tide and crew. Davis is the practical half-day stop. Crocker and Alligator get a better look for a deeper bait. Molasses gets the closest outside-water note because the Stream is sitting close.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable for the right boat, but they are not friendly. East wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, and an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds is enough shove to make a blind offshore run expensive.

NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of June 28. That is close. Close does not mean alive.

If you see birds, scattered weed, flying fish, bait, or a real color edge, take a look. If the outside is blank, the reef is too reasonable to burn the morning in short-period chop.

florida bay

Florida Bay has east to southeast wind near 10 knots with bay waters a light chop. The ride is not the hard part.

The water is the hard part. Vaca Key was 89.6 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is already hot before the sun gets mean.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon stay on the early or late clock. Moving water matters. Clouds help. Midday skinny water is mostly a grind today.

tides for monday, june 29

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	3:33 AM EDT	0.26 ft	overnight low
High	9:05 AM EDT	1.23 ft	morning high
Low	3:44 PM EDT	-0.06 ft	afternoon low
High	9:47 PM EDT	1.36 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	5:12 AM EDT	0.19 ft	early low
High	10:30 AM EDT	0.67 ft	morning high
Low	6:58 PM EDT	-0.10 ft	evening low

For the reef, the fall from the 9:05 AM Whale Harbor high toward the 3:44 PM low is the main working window. If the current pulls clean over the edge, yellowtail should respond. If it gets lazy near the bottom, do not just feed the little fish. Move, reset, or wait for the first push of the incoming.

For the bay, the 10:30 AM Upper Matecumbe high gives the best morning water. After that, the long fall toward 6:58 PM can move fish through drains and edges, but the heat will punish slow decisions.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses has the most interesting outside-water note. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough to matter if the water has life on it.

The reef itself is the safer bet. Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 70 feet if the current sets right. Cero mackerel are fair if bait pushes into the chum. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth keeping down.

I would look outside only if the signs are obvious. Birds, bait, flyers, weed, or a hard color break. Pretty blue water by itself does not clean fish.

conch reef

Conch should fish fair today. The wind is not too much for the reef, but it will make the anchor and chum setup more particular.

Yellowtail are the main target. Mangrove snapper are fair around harder bottom and ledges. Muttons are fair on the deeper side if the tide gives you enough pull.

If the slick is not laying right, do not marry the spot. Conch can produce, but it does not reward stubborn fishing in crossed-up wind and current.

davis reef

Davis is the clean practical call. Short run, enough structure, and easy to adjust if showers start building or the crew does not love the chop.

Yellowtail should be fair in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair around the ledges. Cero mackerel are possible if bait shows up in the slick.

For families or dinner trips, Davis makes sense today. You can fish the falling water, keep the ride sane, and still slide deeper if the current looks good.

crocker reef

Crocker is in play, especially if you want to fish a little deeper and keep a real mutton bait down. The Hawk Channel number is manageable, but the chop will be honest.

Yellowtail should be fair to good with clean current. Mutton snapper are fair along the deeper edge. Fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or a small live grunt is a better plan than soaking lazy bait.

The falling tide into the 3:44 PM Whale Harbor low is the window I would watch. If the current dies around the low, reset instead of grinding.

alligator reef

Alligator gets a fair to good grade. The Gulf Stream edge is 7 NM southeast of the light, so there is an outside option if the water shows life. The reef still gets first claim on the day.

Yellowtail are fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on deeper structure. Mangroves are fair in the summer pattern, especially when the light gets lower or the water has a little color.

The tower area can get busy. If the obvious water is crowded or the current is wrong, slide off the postcard and fish the less obvious pieces.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but from Islamorada I would give the closer reefs the first shot unless you have a reason to keep sliding west.

Look from 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. A deeper mutton bait is worth the time if the current is moving. If the ride feels bigger than expected, do not turn a fair reef day into a long bumpy tour.

The afternoon fall and first part of the evening incoming are the better windows.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. The reef is fishable, the morning high gives a clean falling-water setup, and the east breeze should keep enough movement on the water. Light leader still matters. So does a steady chum line.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edges and patches. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee all get a look if the current behaves. Dead water is still dead water.

Mangrove snapper are fair and worth more attention as the summer heat holds. Low light helps. Structure helps. So does fishing heavier than your pride wants you to.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait and active slicks. If they are there, they usually tell you fast.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore, but not automatic. The Stream is close near Molasses and Alligator, which is useful. The Straits are also 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, at a short period. That means offshore needs signs before it gets the day.

Blackfin tuna are fair early around deeper current edges, birds, and bait. This is a look, not the main plan.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are poor to fair after the sun gets up. Vaca Key water at 89.6 F before 6 AM keeps the shallow game on a short clock.

the call

Start on the reef. Molasses has the closest Stream edge. Davis is the best simple dinner run. Crocker and Alligator are the better calls if you want yellowtail with a real mutton bait down.

Offshore can work, but it has to earn the run. Birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a hard color edge, yes. Empty Straits in 3 feet at 5 seconds, no thanks.

The bay is early or late work. The water is too hot to pretend midday flats fishing is going to be kind.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:30 AM EDT, and the midday read is a little kinder than the pre-dawn one.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is now east to southeast wind near 10 knots this afternoon, seas 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters a light chop. That is a notch cleaner than the morning forecast, which had east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and light to moderate chop.

The Straits also came down. NOAA now has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is still east 3 feet at 5 seconds, so the outside will not feel lazy, but the ugly “occasionally to 5 feet” line from the morning forecast is gone for this afternoon.

Florida Bay is holding about the same. East to southeast wind near 10 knots, bay waters a light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. No big change there.

Tonight still trends easier. NOAA has the east wind dropping from near 10 knots to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. The bigger note for Tuesday is not wind, it is the cloud line setup. NOAA says conditions may support waterspouts over or near the Keys waters on Tuesday, so keep one eye up if that line gets organized.

For the rest of today, the reef plan got better. Davis, Conch, Crocker, Molasses, and Alligator are all more comfortable than they looked at daylight. Offshore is still a make-it-earn-it deal because 3 feet at 5 seconds can slap, but it is no longer an automatic no for the right crew if the water shows birds, bait, weed, or a real color edge.

evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:24 PM EDT. The day settled down about the way the midday update hinted it would. The reef stayed the better working lane, and the outside got less ugly on paper, but still carried enough short-period east sea to make a blind run feel dumb.

For Hawk Channel tonight, NOAA has east winds near 10 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters go from a light chop to smooth to a light chop. That is good evening reef water if the current behaves.

The Straits are still not slick tonight. NOAA has east winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east to southeast near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet, with east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Better than the morning, yes. Still a tight little sea if you are running around with no sign to fish.

Tuesday looks like the easier day. Hawk Channel drops to northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable in the afternoon. Seas fall to around 1 foot, with nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits come down to east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast to east, with seas 1 to 2 feet and east 2 feet at 4 seconds.

The one thing I do not love is the cloud-line setup. NOAA says conditions are favorable for a cloud line over or near the Keys waters Tuesday, and that may support waterspouts. That does not ruin the day. It just means do not fish with your head buried in the chum bucket if the sky starts stacking up.

Tomorrow’s plan is simple. Start reef, then earn anything farther out. Molasses and Alligator still get the best outside-water note with the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of Molasses and 7 NM southeast of Alligator as of June 28. Davis, Conch, and Crocker are all strong dinner-fish calls in the lighter sea. If the outside shows birds, bait, weed, flyers, or a real color edge, take the look. If it is empty, stay on the reef and make the day pay.

Data sources: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:31 AM EDT and updated 10:30 AM EDT and 4:24 PM EDT June 29, 2026; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel, 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key, and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay; NOAA/NDBC station observations from Long Key LONF1 and Sombrero Key SMKF1 around 5:40 AM EDT; Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of June 28, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.