Captain's log, July 1, 2026, light wind and a reef-first plan

Wednesday, July 1. Summer is not hiding this morning.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 5:28 AM EDT. The main story is light east to southeast breeze, going variable at times today unless showers or thunderstorms get involved. NOAA also flagged the cloud-line setup near the island chain. If that line develops, waterspouts become part of the conversation, so the sky gets watched even when the sea looks friendly.

For the reef line, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the west end of Seven Mile Bridge is forecast east to southeast near 5 knots, becoming variable. Seas are 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters are smooth. That is good working water for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee.

The Straits are calm on paper too. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, with east 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is a clean number. It still does not mean run past fish to go stare at empty blue water.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay showed 90.7 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot before breakfast. Reef fishing can still be good in that pattern, but flats and bay work need moving tide, low light, and a little shade if you can get it.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 5 knots, becoming variable
Hawk Channel	1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	around 1 foot, east 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	variable near 5 knots early, becoming east to southeast, bay waters smooth
Rain	chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look, tough midday flats heat

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the easy lane today. One foot or less with smooth nearshore water gives most reef boats a clean ride and enough room to fish without wearing out the crew.

Light wind does bring its own little problem. The boat can swing, and a chum line can get sloppy if the current is weak. If the stern is not pointed where the fish are supposed to be, fix the setup. Do not sit there hoping the ocean gets organized for you.

Davis and Crocker are good half-day choices. Alligator and Tennessee are worth the run if you want more room. Molasses gets extra attention because the Gulf Stream edge is listed close outside the reef.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable today. Around 1 foot with an east 1-foot wave at 3 seconds is about as polite as July offshore water gets.

NOAA places the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of June 28. That is close enough to matter, but close does not fill a cooler by itself.

If you see birds, flyers, bait, weed, or a hard edge, go look. If it is flat blue water with nothing talking, the reef has the better odds.

florida bay

Florida Bay is calm this morning. NOAA has variable wind near 5 knots early, becoming east to southeast, with bay waters smooth.

The heat is the part you cannot ignore. Vaca Key water at 90.7 F before 6 AM is hard on the flats once the sun gets high. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early or late targets today. The middle of the day is a grind unless clouds give you help.

The cloud line can cool things down for a minute. It can also turn into weather. That is not drama, that is July in the Keys.

tides for wednesday, july 1

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	4:52 AM EDT	0.22 ft	early low
High	10:28 AM EDT	1.25 ft	morning high
Low	5:00 PM EDT	-0.04 ft	afternoon low
High	11:04 PM EDT	1.38 ft	late high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	12:53 AM EDT	0.35 ft	overnight high
Low	6:28 AM EDT	0.19 ft	early low
High	11:51 AM EDT	0.68 ft	late morning high
Low	8:08 PM EDT	-0.08 ft	evening low

For the reef, I like the fall from the 10:28 AM Whale Harbor high toward the 5:00 PM low. That should give the yellowtail bite a fair window if the current pulls clean over the edge. If it gets slack near the bottom, move, reset, or wait for the first push back in.

For the bay, the 11:51 AM Upper Matecumbe high is useful, but the best water should still be the low-light part of the day. The long fall toward 8:08 PM can move fish around drains and edges if the heat does not flatten everything.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the best outside-water note today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, which puts blue water close enough to check if the signs are there.

The reef itself should be good for yellowtail in 45 to 70 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks up in the slick.

Do not leave biting fish just because the Stream is close. But if the reef goes quiet and the outside shows life, Molasses gives you a clean swing without turning the day into a fuel bill.

conch reef

Conch should fish fair to good. Light wind makes the anchor work easier, and that matters more than people admit.

Yellowtail are the first target. Mangrove snapper are fair around harder bottom and ledges. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth soaking while the tide has some pull.

If the current is too soft, slide until the chum works. Summer reef fishing gets boring fast when the slick hangs under the boat.

davis reef

Davis is the practical dinner run today. Short ride, smooth water, enough bottom to put together a box without making the morning complicated.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair on the ledges. Cero mackerel are possible if bait shows up and the slick gets lively.

For families, first-timers, or anybody who wants fish without a long ride, Davis makes sense.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good grade. The water is comfortable, and the falling tide after the morning high should give the chum line a real chance.

Look from 50 to 80 feet depending on current. Keep a mutton bait down if the slick is clean. Fresh bait matters today. It always does, but light summer water makes lazy bait look even lazier.

If the boat starts wandering in the light breeze, reset. A bad angle turns a good reef into a slow donation.

alligator reef

Alligator is in play. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so there is a little outside upside if you see birds, bait, or color.

The reef should still be the first plan. Yellowtail are fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on deeper structure. Mangroves are fair when the light gets lower or the water has a little stain.

The tower area can get crowded. If the obvious pieces are jammed up, fish the less famous bottom.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is a solid west-end option in this forecast. With Hawk Channel 1 foot or less, the run is not the problem.

Yellowtail and mangroves should be fair to good from 40 to 70 feet. A deeper mutton bait deserves time while the falling water is moving. If the current dies near the low, do not wait on magic forever.

For an afternoon plan, Tennessee gets more interesting once the water starts lifting again after the 5:00 PM ocean-side low.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. The reef is comfortable, the tide gives us a useful falling-water window, and the light wind should make the chum game easier if the current cooperates. Light leader still matters.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge and patches. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee all deserve a bait if the water is moving.

Mangrove snapper are fair in the summer pattern. Low light helps. Structure helps. So does fishing a little heavier when the fish let you get away with it.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait and active slicks. They usually show themselves fast, so keep wire close but do not build the whole day around them.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore. The Stream is close near Molasses and Alligator, but I would still make the run only if the water gives you a reason. Birds, flyers, weed, bait, or a clean edge. Empty blue is just a ride.

Blackfin tuna are fair early around deeper current edges, birds, and bait. It is a look, not the main plan.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are poor to fair after the sun gets high. With Vaca Key at 90.7 F before 6 AM, the flats need early water, moving tide, and cloud cover.

the call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the easy half-day call. Crocker and Alligator are better if you want yellowtail with a real mutton bait soaking. Molasses gets the outside-water check only if the signs are obvious.

Keep one eye on the sky. Light wind makes the water look friendly, but a cloud line can change the day fast.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:18 AM EDT. The main change is the wind getting even lighter and less organized near the island chain. The morning forecast had east to southeast breeze near 5 knots, becoming variable. The midday package now has Hawk Channel variable near 5 knots this afternoon, with seas still 1 foot or less and nearshore waters smooth.

The Straits are still friendly on paper, but there is a small wind shift in the update. NOAA now has east to southeast winds near 5 knots becoming northeast to east 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas remain around 1 foot, with east 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is no real sea-state change, just a little more direction in the breeze later.

Florida Bay stayed quiet. Variable winds near 5 knots and smooth bay water are still the call for this afternoon.

The weather risk did not go away. NOAA is still watching for a cloud line along or near the island chain, plus mainland storms that can drift into the local waters. If that cloud line gets going, waterspouts are still possible. So the fishing plan stays the same: reef first, do not overrun good bottom, and keep looking over your shoulder when the clouds start stacking.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:23 PM EDT, and it kept the same basic July story in place. Light breeze, small seas, and enough shower risk that you still have to fish with your head up.

The afternoon setup stayed manageable. Hawk Channel held in the light-wind pattern, with variable wind near 5 knots expected to become east to southeast 5 to 10 knots tonight. Seas are 1 foot or less, building to around 1 foot, and nearshore water goes from smooth to smooth with a light chop. That is still friendly water for the reef, especially after the 5:00 PM Whale Harbor low started turning around.

The Straits stayed clean on paper too. NOAA has northeast wind 5 to 10 knots tonight, becoming southeast, with seas around 1 foot. Wave detail is northeast to east 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is a good number. The part to respect is the weather line. NOAA is still calling for possible afternoon nearshore cloudlines and boundaries coming off the South Florida mainland through the evening.

Florida Bay is quiet but hot. NOAA has variable wind near 5 knots becoming east to southeast tonight, with bay waters smooth. The bay-side low at Upper Matecumbe is 8:08 PM at -0.08 feet, so the late water can move, but the heat did not give anybody a free pass today.

For tomorrow, Thursday July 2, the reef still looks like the smart first move. Hawk Channel is forecast southeast to south 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, with nearshore waters smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. That keeps Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all in play for yellowtail and a mutton bait on the deeper side.

The Straits are fishable Thursday, but I would still make the offshore call from what the water shows, not from the forecast alone. NOAA has southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, with east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Mahi and blackfin are worth a look if there is weed, bait, birds, flyers, or a clean edge. If it is empty blue water, do not make it complicated. Stay where the reef fish live.

Florida Bay gets southeast to south wind near 5 knots Thursday, with bay waters smooth and a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. That is calm enough, but the water is still summer-hot. Early, late, moving tide, and shade where you can get it. Midday flats work is still a grind.