Captain's log, July 2, 2026, light wind, close blue water, hot bay

Thursday, July 2. This is one of those summer mornings where the ocean looks almost too easy from the dock. Light breeze, small seas, hot water, and enough thunderstorm language in the forecast to keep everybody honest.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:37 AM EDT. The big picture is simple. Light east to southeast breezes become variable at times through Friday, then high pressure builds back late in the week and brings light to gentle east to southeast flow across the Keys waters.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has southeast to south wind near 5 knots today. Seas are 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters are smooth. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are friendly on paper too. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is a clean offshore ride if the sky behaves, but it does not mean every mile outside is worth running.

Florida Bay is southeast to south near 5 knots with smooth bay waters. The heat is the tax. Vaca Key, Florida Bay showed 90.5 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is not an afternoon number. That is breakfast.

At 5:40 AM EDT, Long Key was reading south wind at about 6 knots with gusts near 8. Sombrero Key was southeast at about 5 knots with gusts near 7. Vaca Key was south at about 2 knots with gusts near 4 at 5:18 AM. Light all around, but storms can make their own wind fast this time of year.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast to south near 5 knots in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	around 1 foot
Wave detail	east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	smooth, southeast to south near 5 knots
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, chance of showers in the bay
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay 90.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look, poor midday flats heat

tides for thursday, july 2

Whale Harbor Channel is the ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef line.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	5:29 AM EDT	0.20 ft	early low
High	11:09 AM EDT	1.25 ft	late morning high
Low	5:37 PM EDT	-0.02 ft	evening low
High	11:42 PM EDT	1.37 ft	late high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	1:26 AM EDT	0.38 ft	overnight high
Low	7:08 AM EDT	0.20 ft	morning low
High	12:31 PM EDT	0.68 ft	midday high
Low	8:42 PM EDT	-0.06 ft	evening low

For the reef, the clean window is the incoming water from the 5:29 AM low at Whale Harbor toward the 11:09 AM high. That is the tide I would rather fish hard. After the high, the first part of the fall can still work if the chum line starts pulling right.

For the bay, the morning rise into the 12:31 PM high gives some movement, but the water is already hot. Flats fish need early water, shade, or a reason to stay interested. Standing on dead skinny water at noon is just paying dues with no receipt.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets the loudest outside note today. NOAA places the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of June 28. That is close enough to matter, but it is still not a promise.

Start with the reef. Yellowtail should be good if the water is clean and the current lays the slick out. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair if bait is moving through.

If the outside shows birds, bait, weed, or a hard color edge, take the look. If it is only blue and empty, come back to the groceries.

conch reef

Conch is a good working reef call in this light wind. Easy boat handling helps, but light wind can make a captain lazy. The fish still need current.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 50 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure and lower light. Muttons are fair deeper when the tide starts to pull. If the slick stalls under the boat, reset instead of feeding bait to pickers.

davis reef

Davis is practical today. Short run, smooth water, and enough structure to work if the family wants a reef day without turning it into a marathon.

Yellowtail are fair to good on the moving water. Mangroves are fair around ledges. Cero mackerel can pop through the slick when small bait is around. Watch the sky after lunch because smooth water makes storms look farther away than they are.

crocker reef

Crocker should fish fair if the water color holds. The light southeast to south breeze gives you room to move depth and find a better line.

Yellowtail are the main play. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Mangroves are fair closer to structure. If the current gets lazy around the tide turn, do not sit there admiring the view. Move until the slick looks alive.

alligator reef

Alligator gets a good mention because NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of the light. That keeps the outside interesting without making it the whole plan.

On the reef, yellowtail should be fair to good. Mutton snapper are fair deeper. Permit are fair around cleaner moving water if the bait is acting nervous. The Straits are only around 1 foot today, so a short outside check makes sense if the signs are real.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is a fair reset if the upper reef gets crowded or the current acts wrong. With Hawk Channel at 1 foot or less, the run is not the issue. The issue is whether the water looks better when you get there.

Yellowtail are fair. Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair deeper on moving water. I would not run west just to run west, but I would not ignore it if the closer reefs are slow.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	clean current on the reef edge
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, lower light
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge near tide movement
Cero mackerel	fair	bait and active chum slicks
Permit	fair	clean moving water near Alligator and Molasses
Mahi mahi	fair	outside signs only, birds, weed, bait, or a color edge
Blackfin tuna	fair	early outside life, not a blind run
Bonefish	poor to fair	early flats before the heat wins
Tarpon	fair	bridge channels and evening current

the call

I would start reef-first today. The ride is easy, the morning tide gives us a good incoming window, and the Gulf Stream is close enough near Molasses and Alligator to keep an outside option in the pocket.

Molasses has the best blue-water hint. Alligator is right behind it. Conch and Davis are the steady working calls. Crocker is worth checking if the water has life. Tennessee is the reset if the closer reef gets crowded or goes slack.

The only real trap is comfort. Light wind makes it easy to sit too long on a dead spot. Hot water makes the bay bite short-tempered. Find moving water, keep the chum steady, and do not let a pretty ocean talk you into ignoring a building cloud.

Tonight stays fishable. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel with seas 1 foot or less and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits go east wind 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and east wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds.

Friday looks similar. Hawk Channel gets east to southeast wind near 5 knots with seas around 1 foot. The Straits run 1 to 2 feet with east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 4 seconds. Still reef weather. Still summer. Watch the sky.

midday addendum, 10:31 am noaa update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:31 AM EDT, and the main story did not move much. This is still light-wind summer fishing, not a building-sea day.

For Hawk Channel this afternoon, NOAA still has southeast to south wind near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters smooth. The Straits are still east to southeast near 5 knots with seas around 1 foot and east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds. That matches the morning call pretty cleanly.

The small change is in the wind wording around the edges. Bayside and Gulfside water from Craig Key west can go variable this afternoon, and tonight starts northeast to east before coming back east to southeast. That is not a red flag by itself, but it can make the slick act lazy or crooked around the tide change.

The storm wording is still the thing to respect. NOAA keeps a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for Hawk Channel and the Straits this afternoon, with a chance of showers in Florida Bay. If a cloudline gets going off the mainland later, it can make its own breeze fast. Fish the reef while it is clean, keep one eye west, and do not let flat water talk you into staying too long under ugly sky.

evening addendum, 4:27 pm noaa update

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:27 PM EDT. The forecast stayed friendly, but it got a little more honest about the summer pattern. Light wind, small seas, hot water, and scattered trouble if a cloudline or mainland boundary decides to work over the water.

For tonight in Hawk Channel, NOAA has variable wind near 5 knots becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 foot or less, building to around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to smooth with a light chop. That is good water after the 5:37 PM Whale Harbor low, assuming the sky stays polite.

The Straits are still clean enough to fish. NOAA has northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east to southeast near 10 knots tonight. Seas build from 1 to 2 feet to around 2 feet, with east wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is not rough. It is just enough to remind you that the flat calm part of the day is not always the whole day.

Florida Bay stays quiet on the forecast. Variable wind near 5 knots becomes east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, and bay waters go from smooth to smooth with a light chop. The bay-side low at Upper Matecumbe is 8:42 PM at -0.06 feet. There will be water moving late, but with that 90.5 F morning water temperature, I would still treat the bay like a low-light game.

The afternoon recap is simple. The reef call held up better than a blind offshore run. Small seas gave everybody options, but the better bet was still clean current on the edge, not burning fuel across empty blue water just because the forecast looked easy. Yellowtail stayed the most dependable plan. Muttons and mangroves were worth time where the tide pulled right. The outside only deserved attention where there were real signs: weed, birds, bait, flyers, or a sharp color change.

Friday, July 3 looks like more of the same at first glance. Hawk Channel is forecast east to southeast near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters smooth. The Straits get east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast to east near 5 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet and east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 4 seconds. Florida Bay is southeast near 5 knots with smooth bay waters.

That is a good reef forecast. Davis, Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Molasses all stay in play if the current behaves. I would start with yellowtail, keep a mutton bait down on the deeper edge, and only poke outside if the water gives a reason. Friday still carries a shower and thunderstorm chance, so do the fishing early, watch the western sky, and do not let smooth water make the decision for you.

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Source notes: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:37 AM EDT and updated 10:31 AM EDT and 4:27 PM EDT July 2, 2026. Tides from NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key. Water temperature from NOAA station 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay at 5:54 AM EDT. Morning wind observations from NOAA/NDBC stations Long Key, Sombrero Key, and Vaca Key. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of June 28, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.