Captain's log, July 3, 2026, light breeze, small seas, reef first

Friday, July 3. This is a clean little holiday weekend window if you use it right. Light breeze, small seas, close Gulf Stream water on the upper reef line, and enough summer storm chance to keep the sky from being ignored.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:48 AM EDT. The setup is light east to southeast breeze becoming variable at times today, then a return to light to gentle east to southeast flow through the weekend as high pressure builds back across the Keys coastal waters.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 5 knots today. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Tonight goes east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and smooth to light chop nearshore.

The Straits are fishable. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots today, becoming east, with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Tonight stays 1 to 2 feet with east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots and an east 1 foot wave at 4 seconds.

The nearby morning stations match the forecast. At the time of the NOAA station page pull, Sombrero Key was east-southeast at 7 knots with gusts to 8 knots. Long Key was southeast at 6 knots with gusts to 9 knots. Vaca Key in Florida Bay had water temperature at 90.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before the sun gets mean.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, east to southeast 5 to 10 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	1 to 2 feet, east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	slight chance in Hawk Channel and the Straits, chance in Florida Bay
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look, poor midday flats heat

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the easy lane today. East to southeast near 5 knots and around 1 foot gives the reef line room to work. It is not complicated weather. It is the kind of forecast where the boat should be on the reef early, set up clean, and move if the current is wrong.

From Molasses down through Tennessee, anchoring and drifting are both realistic. The main problem is not the wind. It is lazy current and hot water. If the chum hangs under the boat, leave. If the slick lays out and the fish show, do not go hunting for a prettier problem.

Saturday stays friendly. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 5 knots in Hawk Channel with seas around 1 foot and smooth nearshore water. Saturday night gets a little more texture, with east to southeast 5 to 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are worth a look, not a blind mission. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming east, with seas 1 to 2 feet and an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 4 seconds. That is good enough to check birds, weed, bait, or a hard color edge.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of June 28 is 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That puts blue water close on the upper end. Close is useful. It is not a guarantee.

If the outside looks alive, make the check. If it is clean empty water, the reef is the smarter grocery store.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is smooth on paper today. Southeast wind near 5 knots, smooth bay waters, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The problem is heat. Vaca Key was 90.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT. The shallows will get rough on fish by midday even if the surface looks pretty. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon need an early or late plan. Midday is for shade, patience, and knowing when not to force it.

tides for friday, july 3

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	6:07 AM EDT	0.18 feet	early low
High	11:50 AM EDT	1.25 feet	late morning high
Low	6:15 PM EDT	0.02 feet	evening low
High	12:19 AM EDT	1.35 feet	overnight high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	1:59 AM EDT	0.41 feet	overnight high
Low	7:52 AM EDT	0.20 feet	morning low
High	1:12 PM EDT	0.66 feet	early afternoon high
Low	9:15 PM EDT	-0.02 feet	evening low

For the reef, the push from the 6:07 AM low toward the 11:50 AM high is the first clean window. That is the one I would want for yellowtail. The fall toward the 6:15 PM low gives the afternoon another shot, especially if the current starts moving without getting dirty.

On the bay side, the tide is smaller. The 7:52 AM low into the 1:12 PM high gives some movement, but the heat is the bigger factor. Fish the edges early. Do not expect miracles in skinny hot water under a high July sun.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses gets the best outside option today because NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of the light. That is close enough to keep a serious eye outside, especially if you see flyers, birds, weed, or a clean color break.

The reef still comes first. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 70 feet if the current runs. Cero mackerel are fair in the slick. A deeper mutton bait is worth keeping down while the chum does its work.

Do not leave biting snapper just because blue water is close. Make the outside prove itself.

Conch reef

Conch should fish steady in this light weather. Small seas make it easy to reset until the boat sits right, which matters more than most people want to admit.

Start in 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are good with clean current. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Mangroves are fair around structure, especially if the water has a little stain or the current changes around the tide turn.

If the current is weak, shorten the leash. Move sooner.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical half-day call. Short run, easy water, and enough bottom to work without turning the trip into a science project.

Yellowtail should be good in 40 to 60 feet when the tide pushes. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows in the chum. Mangroves are fair on patchier bottom and ledges.

For families or a straight dinner run, Davis makes a lot of sense today. It is not fancy. It puts you where you need to be.

Crocker reef

Crocker has a better deeper-edge look than some of the shallower stops. The 55 to 80 foot line is worth time if the current is clean on the late morning rise or the afternoon fall.

Yellowtail are good. Muttons are fair, maybe better with a proper bait left alone. Fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or a small live grunt beats lazy bottom fishing.

If the tide stalls, do not keep feeding dead water. Reset and wait for it to start moving again.

Alligator reef

Alligator is the best all-around Islamorada call today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of the light, Hawk Channel is small, and the reef gives you room to make decisions without a long run.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair in the slick if bait is around.

The tower area will have traffic. That does not mean the whole reef is crowded. Find the water that is moving right and let everybody else stare at the obvious spot.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is a good lower-end option in this forecast. With the ocean this small, the run is reasonable, and the reef can be a smart way to get away from busier Islamorada stops.

Look in 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper side gets a fair mutton grade if the current behaves. Tennessee can be quiet and productive on days like this, but it still needs water movement.

Watch the sky in the afternoon. Summer cloud lines can build fast, especially with light wind.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best water
Yellowtail snapper	good	Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Tennessee in 40 to 75 feet
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edges from Conch through Tennessee
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and patchier bottom
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks with bait on the reef
Mahi mahi	fair	outside edge only if birds, weed, bait, or color shows
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat stacks up
Permit	fair early	cleaner moving water near deeper edges
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes early or late

Yellowtail snapper get the best grade. The sea state is right and the morning tide gives the reef a useful window. Keep the chum clean, keep the leader light, and do not pretend dead current is going to improve because you are stubborn.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Tennessee get the better look. Put a real bait in the right lane and leave it alone.

Mahi are fair because the Gulf Stream is close, especially off Molasses. I would not make it the whole plan unless the ocean shows life. Weed, birds, flyers, bait, or a hard color edge. No signs, no hero run.

The flats are heat-limited. Vaca Key water at 90.5 F before 6 AM says plenty. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon need the softer ends of the day.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Molasses has the closest Gulf Stream edge. Alligator has the best overall mix. Davis is the clean dinner run. Crocker is the mutton soak if the current lines up.

The forecast is friendly, but the bite will still make you earn it. Find moving water, keep the chum honest, and do not let a pretty sea talk you into running past fish.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:19 AM EDT. The main numbers did not move much from the morning package, which is good news if you already had a reef plan.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is still east to southeast near 5 knots this afternoon. Seas are still around 1 foot, nearshore waters are still smooth, and the shower and thunderstorm chance stays slight. That is the same basic working water we had at daylight.

The Straits are also holding steady. NOAA still has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming east, with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail remains east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. No reason to rewrite the plan there. Check the outside if it shows life, but do not make a long empty-water bet just because the ride is pretty.

The wording that changed is more about timing and sky than sea state. The new synopsis says breezes will lull during the afternoon and peak overnight. It also points to possible afternoon nearshore cloudlines interacting with boundaries coming off the South Florida mainland through the evening. That means the water can look calm and still throw you a local storm problem. Watch the west and northwest sky, especially late day.

Florida Bay nudged from southeast near 5 knots in the morning writeup to east to southeast near 5 knots in the 10:19 AM forecast. Bay waters remain smooth this afternoon, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The heat problem did not change. Midday flats are still a tough ask.

evening addendum, 4:17 PM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:17 PM EDT. The afternoon recap is simple. The ocean stayed in the same friendly summer lane, but the sky still gets a vote through this evening.

The new synopsis keeps generally light east to southeast breezes across the Keys waters, becoming variable at times. NOAA also kept the note about afternoon lulls and stronger overnight breezes. Any active weather over the marine zones should mainly come from nearshore cloudlines interacting with boundaries pushing off the South Florida mainland through the evening.

For tonight in Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, and nearshore waters run smooth to a light chop. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms. That is still fishable water, but not a night to ignore a building cloud line.

The Straits remain small. Tonight is east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday stays useful too, with east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 4 seconds. NOAA drops the rain wording to a slight chance for the Straits on Saturday.

Hawk Channel is the cleaner Saturday plan for most boats. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and smooth nearshore water. The shower and thunderstorm chance is still there, so leave room in the day to work around weather instead of pretending July owes anybody a full pass.

Florida Bay tonight is east to southeast 5 to 10 knots with smooth to light chop and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday goes southeast to south near 5 knots with smooth bay waters and another shower and thunderstorm chance. The bay can look pretty in that forecast, but the heat still makes early and late the better play.

Tomorrow’s call is reef first again. Alligator and Davis are the practical Islamorada lanes. Molasses keeps the outside temptation because NOAA still has the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of the light, but the outside needs birds, weed, bait, or a real color edge before it earns the fuel.

Data sources: NOAA NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:48 AM EDT and updated 10:19 AM EDT and 4:17 PM EDT July 3, 2026; NOAA NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1 and Long Key station LONF1 observations; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel, 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key, and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of June 28, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.