Captain's log, July 4, 2026, light southeast breeze, reef first for the fourth

Saturday, July 4. The ocean gave us a workable holiday forecast, but not a free pass. Light southeast breeze, small Straits, close blue water on the upper reef line, and the same July warning label we always get down here: watch the sky once the day starts cooking.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:28 AM EDT. The western flank of an Atlantic high is sitting across South Florida through the weekend and into next week. That keeps the Keys in generally light to gentle east to southeast breezes.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has southeast wind 5 to 10 knots today. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters run smooth to a light chop, with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The Straits are in good shape. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. That is small summer water, useful for checking the edge if the ocean shows life.

The nearby stations back it up. At 5:40 AM EDT, Sombrero Key was southeast at 10 knots with gusts near 12 knots, pressure 30.01 inches, and air temperature 85.3 F. Long Key was south at 7 knots with gusts near 10 knots. Vaca Key in Florida Bay had water temperature at 91.0 F at 5:18 AM EDT. That bay water is already hot before breakfast.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel, east to southeast near 10 knots becoming east 5 to 10 in the Straits
Hawk Channel	1 to 2 feet, smooth to light chop nearshore
Straits	1 to 2 feet, east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast to south 5 to 10 knots, smooth to light chop
Rain	chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms for Hawk Channel and Florida Bay, slight chance in the Straits
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 91.0 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look, poor midday flats heat

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

This is friendly Hawk Channel weather for most boats. Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots and 1 to 2 feet gives you room to run the reef line, anchor clean, and reset without beating up the crew.

That said, it is still July 4. Boat traffic matters. So does lazy summer current. If the slick hangs under the boat and the yellowtail will not climb, do not sit there feeding the ocean. Pick up, move, and find water with a little push to it.

Tonight stays fishable, but it gets a little more texture after midnight. NOAA has east wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas stay 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters building from smooth to light chop into light to moderate chop.

Straits of Florida

The Straits get a good holiday grade on sea state. East to southeast wind near 10 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 4 seconds. That is enough to check birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a hard color change.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of June 28 is 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close water is useful, especially off Molasses. But close water is not the same thing as fish on the deck.

Make the outside prove itself. If you see life, go. If it is empty blue water with no bait and no birds, the reef is the better grocery store.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay looks smooth on paper. Southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots, smooth to light chop, chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

The problem is heat. Vaca Key showed 91.0 F water at 5:18 AM EDT. That is rough on skinny-water fish once the sun gets up. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon need the soft ends of the day. Midday bay fishing is a heat management job, not a hero mission.

tides for saturday, july 4

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	12:19 AM EDT	1.35 feet	overnight high
Low	6:45 AM EDT	0.14 feet	early low
High	12:33 PM EDT	1.25 feet	midday high
Low	6:56 PM EDT	0.07 feet	evening low

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	2:32 AM EDT	0.44 feet	overnight high
Low	8:42 AM EDT	0.20 feet	morning low
High	1:55 PM EDT	0.62 feet	early afternoon high
Low	9:50 PM EDT	0.02 feet	late low

For the reef, the best first window is the push from the 6:45 AM low toward the 12:33 PM high. That rising water should help the yellowtail and mangrove snapper bite if the current runs clean. The fall toward the 6:56 PM low gives the afternoon another shot, but keep one eye on the sky.

On the bay side, the tide is small and the water is hot. The 8:42 AM low into the 1:55 PM high gives some movement, but the earlier part of that window is better. Once the flats get cooked, leave the fish alone or move to deeper edges.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses gets the best outside temptation today because NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of the light. That is close enough to check if there are birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a clean color break.

The reef still deserves the first serious look. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet when the current starts moving after the morning low. Cero mackerel are fair in the chum slick if bait shows. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth soaking, but do not turn the whole morning into dead-sticking if the current is wrong.

Conch reef

Conch should fish steady in this southeast setup. It has enough structure to give you options without forcing a long run, and the small sea state makes it easy to reset until the boat lies right.

Start in 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are good on clean moving water. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Mangroves are fair around structure and ledges, especially around the tide changes.

If the current stalls, shorten the leash. Move before everybody gets bored and starts blaming the bait.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical family and dinner-fish call. Short run, manageable water, enough bottom to fish without making a production out of it.

Yellowtail should be good in 40 to 60 feet during the rise into the 12:33 PM Whale Harbor high. Mangrove snapper are fair. Cero mackerel are fair if the bait stacks in the slick.

Traffic will be part of the deal. It is July 4. Give people room and do not anchor on top of the next boat just because you saw a bent rod.

Crocker reef

Crocker has the better deeper-edge feel today. The 55 to 80 foot line is where I would spend time if I wanted a mutton chance with the yellowtail work happening above it.

Yellowtail are good. Mutton snapper are fair, maybe better if you put a live grunt, pinfish, or fresh ballyhoo in the right lane and leave it alone. The tide rise through late morning is the first clean shot. The afternoon fall can work too, provided storms do not start building west of us.

Alligator reef

Alligator is the best all-around Islamorada call today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of the light, Hawk Channel is small, and the reef gives you choices without a giant run.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Cero mackerel are fair in the slick if bait is present.

The tower will draw a crowd. That is not news. Fish the water, not the landmark. Plenty of productive bottom sits away from the obvious parking lot.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is a good lower-end option with this light southeast breeze. Seas are small enough that the run is reasonable, and the reef can fish quieter than the busier Islamorada names.

Look in 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper edge gets a fair mutton grade if the current behaves. Tennessee still needs moving water. Pretty conditions do not fix slack tide.

Watch afternoon weather. Summer cloud lines can build faster than people want to believe, especially when everybody is distracted by holiday plans.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best water
Yellowtail snapper	good	Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Tennessee in 40 to 75 feet
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edges from Conch through Tennessee
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges, structure, and patch reef bottom
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks with bait on the reef
Mahi mahi	fair	outside edge only if birds, weed, bait, or color shows
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat stacks up
Permit	fair early	cleaner moving water near deeper edges
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes early or late

Yellowtail snapper get the best grade. The wind is light enough, the seas are small enough, and the morning rising tide gives the reef something to work with. Keep the chum steady and the leader reasonable. If the current is right, they should climb.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Tennessee get the better look. Use a real bait and enough weight to stay honest without pinning it like a brick.

Mahi are fair because the Gulf Stream is close, especially off Molasses. I would not make it the whole plan unless the ocean shows signs. Weed, birds, bait, flyers, or a hard color edge. No signs, no long bet.

The flats are heat-limited. Vaca Key at 91.0 F before sunrise says enough. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon need early or late water, shade, or deeper edges.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Alligator has the best overall mix. Molasses has the closest Gulf Stream edge. Davis is the practical dinner run. Crocker is the mutton soak if the current lines up.

The forecast is good enough to go, but July still gets a vote. Watch the cloud lines, respect the heat, and do not run past biting snapper just because the outside looks pretty.

midday addendum, 10:25 am noaa update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:25 AM EDT. The short version is that the morning plan still holds. Light southeast breeze, small water, and the same summer shower and thunderstorm chance.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge did not really move. NOAA still has southeast winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. That keeps the reef in the lead. It is still a good yellowtail setup if the current runs clean.

The Straits actually eased a touch on the wind wording. The morning package had east to southeast wind near 10 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots. The 10:25 AM update has east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, becoming east. Seas stayed 1 to 2 feet, with east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 4 seconds. No reason to call that a rougher ocean. If anything, it is a little friendlier, but the outside still needs signs before you burn fuel at it.

Florida Bay stayed about the same too. Southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots becomes east to southeast, with bay waters smooth to a light chop. The heat problem is still the bigger deal than the chop. Midday skinny water remains a grind, and any afternoon cloud line deserves respect.

For the afternoon, I would keep the same order of operations. Reef first, outside only if the water shows life, and keep one eye west while the holiday traffic does its holiday traffic thing.

evening addendum, 4:27 pm noaa update

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:27 PM EDT. The holiday afternoon finished about how the morning said it would. Light to gentle breezes stayed in the Keys waters, the reef side stayed workable, and the shower risk never left the table.

Tonight is still a decent run-home forecast, not a reason to get lazy. For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas stay 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop to a light to moderate chop. That is fine water, but it will have a little more texture late.

The Straits tonight are east to southeast near 10 knots, becoming southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with east wave detail 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is still fishable for the right boat, but it is not the same soft 1 to 2 foot morning read. If you are running after dark, make it clean and do not pretend holiday boat traffic disappears just because the sun went down.

For Sunday, the first look stays pretty friendly. Hawk Channel gets southeast to south wind near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, nearshore waters go from a light chop back to smooth to a light chop, and NOAA keeps a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The Straits look a touch smaller Sunday. NOAA has southeast wind near 10 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 4 seconds. That gives the outside another fair look if the water has birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a clean edge. Without that, the reef is still the better meat plan.

Florida Bay Sunday is southeast to south 5 to 10 knots increasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters run smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Showers stay possible, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. The wind is not the problem back there. Heat is. Take the early shot, then do not force skinny water once it turns into a bathtub.

The best Sunday plan is simple. Reef first from Alligator through Crocker, with Molasses worth an outside peek because the Gulf Stream edge was still listed 2 NM southeast of the light in the NOAA package. Keep the snapper program honest, move when the current dies, and let the offshore water earn the fuel.

Data sources: NOAA NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:28 AM EDT and updated 10:25 AM EDT and 4:27 PM EDT July 4, 2026; NOAA NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1, Long Key station LONF1, and Vaca Key station VCAF1 observations; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel, 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key, and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of June 28, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.