Captain's log, July 5, 2026, light wind, small seas, reef first

Sunday, July 5. The ocean gives us a workable summer window today, but it is not a free pass. Light wind, small seas, hot bay water, and enough shower chance to make a captain keep one eye off the rods.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:37 AM EDT. The general setup is light to gentle breeze across the Florida Keys waters, occasionally moderate, with wind shifting between easterly and southerly while the western side of the Atlantic high sits around South Florida.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has southeast to south wind near 10 knots this morning, decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light chop to smooth, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are fishable too. NOAA has southeast to south wind near 10 knots, becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots late this morning and afternoon. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with east to southeast wave detail at 2 feet every 4 seconds. That is small enough to look offshore, but the reef still earns the first stop.

At Long Key, the 5:40 AM EDT NDBC observation had south wind at 13 knots with gusts to 17 knots. Molasses Reef station MLRF1 has no recent data because the station was disestablished in 2023. Vaca Key in Florida Bay reported water temperature at 90.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is bathtub water before breakfast.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast to south near 10 knots early, easing near 5 knots in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas 1 to 2 feet, light chop becoming smooth
Straits	seas 1 to 2 feet, east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast to south near 10 knots easing near 5 knots, light chop becoming smooth
Rain	chance in the bay, slight chance around Hawk Channel and the Straits
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look, poor midday flats heat

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the clean working lane today. The morning breeze has a little more south in it than the forecast will probably end with, but NOAA has it backing down near 5 knots as the day goes on. Seas stay 1 to 2 feet.

That is good enough for the reef line. Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee are all in play if the sky behaves. The trick is not finding calm water. The trick is finding moving water.

If the slick lays out and the bait shows, stay put. If the chum hangs under the boat like soup, move. Pretty water with no current is just expensive scenery.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are fair. NOAA has seas 1 to 2 feet with an east to southeast wave at 2 feet every 4 seconds. Wind eases from southeast to south near 10 knots to east to southeast 5 to 10 knots late morning and afternoon.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of July 5 sits 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That puts the outside close on the upper reef line.

Close is useful. It is not a plan by itself. Go look if the ocean gives you birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a real color edge. If it looks clean and empty, turn back to the reef before the day turns into a boat ride.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay starts with southeast to south wind near 10 knots, decreasing to near 5 knots. Bay waters are a light chop becoming smooth. NOAA keeps a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The heat is the problem. Vaca Key was 90.7 F before 6 AM. That makes the flats an early and late deal. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but the middle of the day gets mean fast in water that warm.

tides for sunday, july 5

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	12:56 AM EDT	1.32 ft	overnight high
Low	7:27 AM EDT	0.10 ft	morning low
High	1:19 PM EDT	1.25 ft	early afternoon high
Low	7:42 PM EDT	0.13 ft	evening low

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	3:05 AM EDT	0.48 ft	overnight high
Low	9:40 AM EDT	0.19 ft	morning low
High	2:41 PM EDT	0.57 ft	afternoon high
Low	10:25 PM EDT	0.06 ft	late low

For the reef, the push from the 7:27 AM low into the 1:19 PM high is the best first window. Get set before the tide gets too high, and let the current tell you whether to stay.

The evening fall toward 7:42 PM can fish too, especially for snapper if the water stays clean and the wind stays down. The bay side has a smaller tide, and the 9:40 AM low into the 2:41 PM high is useful only if you beat the worst of the heat.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses has the closest outside edge today. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream 6 NM southeast of the light as of July 5, which is close enough to check without turning the whole trip into a fuel bill.

Fish the reef first. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 70 feet if the current runs. Cero mackerel are fair in the slick when bait is nervous. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth soaking, but do not babysit dead water.

If the blue water has birds or weed, take the shot. If it is empty blue water, go back to groceries.

Conch reef

Conch should be steady with this sea state. The 50 to 80 foot line gives you enough depth to work yellowtail and keep a mutton bait honest.

The late morning incoming is the cleaner window. Light wind lets you reset without taking a beating, so use that advantage. Slide until the boat sits right and the chum line makes sense.

Davis reef

Davis is the easy Islamorada dinner run. Short ride, manageable water, and enough bottom to work while everyone else argues with the obvious spots.

Yellowtail should be good in 40 to 60 feet when the current moves. Mangroves are fair on structure and patchier bottom. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gets pushed into the chum.

For families or half-day trips, Davis is hard to dislike today.

Crocker reef

Crocker gets a good deeper-edge look. The 55 to 80 foot line is where I would spend time if the current is clean on the rise toward the early afternoon high.

Yellowtail are good. Muttons are fair, maybe better with the right bait left alone. Fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or a small live grunt beats wishing over a tired bait.

If the current stalls, change the angle or wait for the next push. Grinding slack water does not make anybody smarter.

Alligator reef

Alligator is the best all-around Islamorada call. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of the light, and the reef gives you room to fish without committing to a long outside run.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and current seams.

The tower will draw boats. Let it. There is plenty of reef if you are willing to fish the water instead of the landmark.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable in this forecast. The question from Islamorada is time, not safety, assuming the sky stays reasonable.

If you are already headed west, work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper side has a fair mutton shot. I would still spend the cleanest tide closer to Davis, Crocker, or Alligator unless Tennessee has a specific reason to be the call.

Watch the afternoon clouds. Light wind can make storms look slow until they are not.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 75 ft
Mutton snapper	fair	Conch, Crocker, Alligator, Tennessee deep edge
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, patch reef with moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks with bait on the reef
Mahi mahi	fair	short outside look only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat stacks up
Permit	fair early	moving water near cleaner edges
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The sea state is right, and the morning low into the early afternoon high gives the reef enough movement to work with. Keep the chum steady and the leader light.

Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Tennessee all deserve a real bait if the current has direction. Do not keep dropping into slack water and call it fishing.

Mahi are fair because the Stream is close off Molasses and Alligator. Fair does not mean automatic. The outside needs life before it gets your fuel.

The flats are heat-limited. Water at Vaca Key was already 90.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT. Early or late is the play. Midday is a good time to stop pretending hot skinny water owes anybody a bite.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Alligator has the best mix. Davis is the clean half-day call. Molasses gets the outside temptation because the Stream edge is close, but the reef still comes before the blue-water gamble.

The best window is the ocean-side rise from the 7:27 AM low into the 1:19 PM high at Whale Harbor Channel. Watch the sky, especially later in the day. NOAA keeps thunderstorms in the wording, and July does not care how good the morning looked.

midday addendum, 10:22 AM NOAA update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:22 AM EDT. The main change is that the breeze backed off a touch from the early morning read. Hawk Channel is now southeast to south 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas stay 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop back to smooth.

The Straits still look small. NOAA has southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast this afternoon. Seas remain 1 to 2 feet, with east to southeast wave detail at 2 feet every 4 seconds. That is a little cleaner than the morning setup, but it does not change the call. Reef first, outside look only if the water shows life.

Florida Bay is also lighter than it felt before breakfast. NOAA has southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots decreasing to near 5 knots, with bay waters smoothing out. Shower chances are still in the wording for the bay, and the reef and Straits still carry a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight is the piece to watch. NOAA brings southeast wind 5 to 10 knots up to southeast to south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas stay modest, but the nearshore waters build back to a light to moderate chop. Good enough for tomorrow planning, just not something to ignore.

evening addendum, 4:25 PM NOAA update

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:25 PM EDT. The day ended about like the better version of the forecast said it would. Light summer breeze, small water, and enough shower wording to keep everybody honest.

For Hawk Channel tonight, NOAA has southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast to south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas stay 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters going from smooth to a light chop into a light to moderate chop. That is still manageable water, but the overnight breeze has a little more bite than the afternoon.

The Straits stay small tonight too. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with east to southeast wave detail at 2 feet every 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms stays in the wording.

Tomorrow, Monday, looks like another reef-first day. Hawk Channel gets southeast to south wind decreasing to near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters becoming smooth. The Straits come down to around 1 foot with east to southeast wave detail at 1 foot every 4 seconds. Florida Bay goes south near 5 knots and smooth, with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The Gulf Stream edge in the 4:25 PM forecast is 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps the outside close enough to inspect, but not close enough to make it the whole plan. Reef first again. If the current runs, yellowtail and a mutton bait on the deeper edge are the sensible work. If the outside has birds, weed, bait, or a real color change, then go take a look.

Tomorrow’s weak spot is not the sea state. It is the heat and the scattered weather. Start early, fish the moving water, and do not let a calm ocean talk you into ignoring the sky.

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Data sources: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:37 AM EDT and updated 10:22 AM EDT and 4:25 PM EDT July 5, 2026; NOAA NDBC Long Key station LONF1 observation at 5:40 AM EDT July 5; NOAA NDBC Molasses Reef station MLRF1 station notice; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel, 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key, and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of July 5, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.