Captain's log, July 6, 2026, light wind, one foot reef seas, hot bay water

Monday, July 6. This is the kind of July morning that looks easy on paper, and still deserves respect. Light breeze, small reef seas, hot water, and the usual summer shower chance hanging around the edges.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:18 AM EDT. The setup is light to gentle breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters today into Tuesday, shifting between easterly and southerly. The breeze is expected to build late Tuesday as the western edge of the Atlantic high strengthens and lifts north into Central Florida.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has southeast to south wind near 5 knots today. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are small too. NOAA has southeast to south wind near 5 knots, becoming east to southeast late. Seas are around 1 foot, with east to southeast wave detail at 1 foot every 4 seconds. That is fishable water, but it is not a reason to forget the reef. The reef has the easier groceries and the better first read.

At Long Key, the 5:40 AM EDT NDBC observation had south wind at 6 knots with gusts to 8 knots. Molasses Reef station MLRF1 has no recent live observation because that station was disestablished in 2023. Vaca Key in Florida Bay reported water temperature at 90.3 F at 5:42 AM EDT.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast to south near 5 knots around Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	seas around 1 foot, east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	south wind near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	slight chance on the reef and Straits, chance in Florida Bay
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.3 F at 5:42 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look, poor midday flats heat

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the clean lane today. Southeast to south wind near 5 knots and seas around 1 foot gives the reef boat plenty of room to work.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee are all fishable if the sky stays honest. The water will not beat you up. The question is current. If the chum line pulls and the bait settles, stay with it. If everything hangs straight down and the boat feels dead, move before the day gets hot and dumb.

This is yellowtail weather. It is also mutton weather if you put a real bait where it belongs and leave it alone long enough to matter.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are fair today. NOAA has southeast to south wind near 5 knots, becoming east to southeast late, with seas around 1 foot. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of July 5 sits 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps the outside close enough to inspect from the upper reef line.

Close is useful. It is not a promise. If the outside has birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a clean color edge, go take a look. If it is just pretty blue water with nothing working, do not turn a good reef day into an expensive sightseeing run.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is smooth this morning. NOAA has south wind near 5 knots and bay waters smooth, with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The heat is the problem. Vaca Key was already 90.3 F at 5:42 AM EDT. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat in that water, but the honest windows are early and late. Midday skinny water in July is not friendly to fish or people.

tides for monday, july 6

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	1:36 AM EDT	1.30 ft	overnight high
Low	8:12 AM EDT	0.06 ft	morning low
High	2:09 PM EDT	1.26 ft	afternoon high
Low	8:34 PM EDT	0.19 ft	evening low

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	3:40 AM EDT	0.51 ft	overnight high
Low	10:47 AM EDT	0.16 ft	late morning low
High	3:36 PM EDT	0.50 ft	afternoon high
Low	11:02 PM EDT	0.10 ft	late low

For the reef, the morning low at 8:12 AM into the 2:09 PM high is the main window. Get set on the front side of that push if you can. The cleanest yellowtail bite should come when the water starts moving with enough direction to stretch the chum.

The evening fall toward 8:34 PM can fish, especially for mangroves and yellowtail if the water stays clean. The bay side has a smaller tide, and the 10:47 AM low into the 3:36 PM high is worth watching only if you beat the worst of the heat.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses gets the outside temptation today because the Gulf Stream edge was listed 6 NM southeast of the light as of July 5. That is close enough to check without losing the whole trip.

Fish the reef first. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 70 feet with moving water. Cero mackerel are fair if the bait gets nervous in the slick. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth soaking, especially on the rise toward the afternoon high.

If the blue water has life, take the shot. If it is empty, turn back and make dinner.

Conch reef

Conch should be steady in this sea state. The 50 to 80 foot line gives you enough room for yellowtail and a mutton bait without getting too cute.

Light wind helps the setup. You can reset, slide, and fish the right angle instead of grinding through bad current because moving is uncomfortable. Use that. The boat should sit right and the chum should make sense.

Davis reef

Davis is the simple Islamorada half day call. Short ride, smooth water, and enough bottom to keep rods bent when the current cooperates.

Yellowtail should be good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair on structure and patch reef. Cero mackerel are fair around bait. Davis is not the dramatic play, but it is a smart one today.

Crocker reef

Crocker gets a good deeper edge look. I would spend time in 55 to 80 feet if the current runs clean on the flood.

Yellowtail are good. Muttons are fair, and maybe better if you have fresh bait and the patience to let it work. Fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or a small live grunt beats a lazy bait every time.

If the current stalls, change the angle. Do not sit there admiring clear water with no bite.

Alligator reef

Alligator is the best all around Islamorada call today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of the light, and the reef gives you plenty of room without committing to a long run.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and current.

The tower will pull boats. Let it. There is plenty of reef if you fish the water instead of the landmark.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable in this forecast. From Islamorada, the question is time and whether the weather stays clean, not sea state.

If you are already running west, work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper side has a fair mutton shot. I would still spend the cleanest tide closer to Davis, Crocker, or Alligator unless Tennessee has a specific reason to be the plan.

Light wind can make afternoon storms look harmless until they are close. Keep watching the sky.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 75 ft
Mutton snapper	fair	Conch, Crocker, Alligator, Tennessee deep edge
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure and patch reef with moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks with bait on the reef
Mahi mahi	fair	short outside look only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat stacks up
Permit	fair early	moving water near cleaner edges
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The sea state is right and the morning low into the afternoon high gives the reef a real shot at moving water. Keep the chum steady, fish light enough, and do not overfeed them.

Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Tennessee all deserve a good bait when the current points the right way. One quality bait in the right place beats six half dead baits in the wrong one.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator. Fair means go only if the ocean shows you something. Weed, birds, bait, flyers, color, any real sign. No sign, no run.

The flats are heat limited. Vaca Key was 90.3 F before 6 AM. Early and late are the plays. Midday is where optimism goes to sweat.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Alligator has the best mix today. Davis is the clean half day move. Molasses is worth a look if you want the outside option close by, but the reef still earns the first drop.

The best window is the ocean side rise from the 8:12 AM low into the 2:09 PM high at Whale Harbor Channel. Watch the sky, especially after lunch. NOAA keeps thunderstorms in the wording, and July does not need much invitation to make a calm morning turn sideways.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:18 AM EDT, and the main call did not move much. The wind is still light. Hawk Channel still has southeast to south wind near 5 knots with seas around 1 foot and nearshore waters smooth. The Straits still sit around 1 foot, with southeast to south wind near 5 knots becoming east to southeast.

The only real change worth noting is the rain wording around the bay. Florida Bay is still smooth with south wind near 5 knots, but NOAA now has a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Hawk Channel and the Straits stayed at a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

So the midday read is about the same as the morning one. Reef conditions are still good if the sky behaves. The outside is still fair, not automatic. Watch the build later in the week too, because NOAA has the easterly to southeasterly breeze trending up late Tuesday, then 10 to 15 knots Wednesday and 15 to 20 knots Wednesday night in Hawk Channel.

evening addendum, 4:31 PM NOAA update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:31 PM EDT. The afternoon did not change the main call much. Light summer wind, small seas, hot water, and enough shower wording to keep one eye on the sky.

For Hawk Channel tonight, NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots. Seas stay around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop into a light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits stay small tonight too. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots late. Seas are around 1 foot, with east wave detail at 1 foot every 3 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms stays in the forecast.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, keeps the reef in good shape before the breeze starts building Tuesday night. Hawk Channel has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots with seas around 1 foot and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits have east wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and east to southeast wave detail at 1 foot every 4 seconds.

Florida Bay stays quiet Tuesday with southeast wind 5 to 10 knots and bay waters smooth to a light chop. NOAA has a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms there, so the bay gets a little more weather wording than the reef and Straits.

The Gulf Stream edge from the latest package still sits close, 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps the outside worth inspecting if it shows birds, weed, bait, or a real color edge. But the sensible first move is still the reef. Yellowtail are the clean play, muttons are worth a real bait on the deeper side, and the outside only gets fuel if it gives you a reason.

Tuesday night’s build is the part to watch. NOAA brings Hawk Channel up to east to southeast wind increasing to 10 to 15 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. The Straits build to 2 to 3 feet, with east to southeast wave detail at 3 feet every 5 seconds. Not ugly, just less soft than the day shift.

---

Data sources: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:18 AM EDT and updated 10:18 AM EDT and 4:31 PM EDT July 6, 2026; NOAA NDBC Long Key station LONF1 observation at 5:40 AM EDT July 6; NOAA NDBC Molasses Reef station MLRF1 station notice; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel, 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key, and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of July 5, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.